Lecture 12: Bureaucratic And Organizational Politics

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Lecture 12 Bureaucratic And Organizational
Politics
1. New Level Of Analysis 2. Review Of
Realism 3. Rational Decision Making 4.
Bureaucratic Politics 5. Organizational Decision
Making 6. Examples From International
Relations 7. A Critique Of Allisons Models 8.
GroupThink
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Levels Of Analysis
1. SYSTEMIC LEVEL 2. REGIME LEVEL 3. DOMESTIC,
STATE, OR SOCIETAL LEVEL 4. BUREAUCRATIC
LEVEL 5. INDIVIDUAL OR DECISION MAKING LEVEL
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Review Of Realist Assumptions

• Assumes States Are Unitary Actors
• Assumes States Are Rational Actors
• -- Does Not Assume a Perfect Outcome
• a) Uncertainty
• b) Incomplete Information
• -- Does Not Assume Identical Preferences
• e.g., Saddam versus George

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Rational Decision Making Process
Define Problem
Search For Alternatives
Identify Consequences and Probabilities
Estimate Costs and Benefits
Optimize or Maximize
xxxxx
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Buying A Car A Rational Choice
Miles Per Gallon ---------- Average Average High
Horse Power ---------- Average High Low
Price ---------- Average Cheap Expensive
Rank ---------- 2.00 2.67 1.67
Escort Corsica Honda Civic
Rank According To Equal Weights And The
Following Scale
Low/expensive 1 Point Average 2
Points High/cheap 3 Points
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Rational Choice
Options 1) Army Invades 2) Air Force Bombs 3)
Navy Blockades 4) State Dept. Protests 5) Do
Nothing
-- Rationality Is Process Not Outcome -- A Weak
Criterion Maximize Your Self Interest
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Allisons Attack
1. Allisons Essence Of Decision (1970) 2. We
View World Through Perceptual Lenses 3. Three
Lenses Or Paradigms A) Rational Model B)
Bureaucratic Politics Model C) Organizational
Decision Making Model 4. Historically We Have
Relied Exclusively On The Rational Model
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Review of Rational Decision Making
Rational Model --------------- Unitary Single
Security Rational Intentional/ Purposeful
Actors Preferences Process Outcomes
Baseline Model
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Bureaucratic Politics
Rational Model --------------- Unitary Single
Security Rational Intentional/ Purposeful
Bureaucratic Politics ------------ Many Many Barga
in Resultant
Actors Preferences Process Outcomes
1. Decisions Are Made By Groups Of Decision
Makers (e.g., Cabinet Or National Security
Council) 2. Preferences Reflect Organizational
Interests Motto Where You Stand Is Where You
Sit 3. Decision Process Is A Tug-of-War Between
Actors 4. Resultant Is Unintended Consequence Or
Compromise Point
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The Resultant
C
A
B
Outcome Radically Differs From Rational Model --
Rational Model Does Not Allow For Factions --
Option C is not Preferred By Anyone
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Organizational Politics
ACTORS PREFERENCES PROCESS OUTCOMES
RATIONAL MODEL --------------- UNITARY SINGLE
SECURITY RATIONAL INTENTIONAL/ PURPOSEFUL
BUREAUCRATIC POLITICS ------------ MANY MANY BARGA
IN RESULTANT
ORGANIZATIONAL DECISION MAKING -------------------
- MANY MANY SOPs SOP DETERMINED
1. Decision Making By Large Bureaucratic
Organizations 2. Many Actors Many
Organizations 3. Standard Operating Procedures
(SOPs) 4. SOP Determines Policy Choice May
Deviate From Rational Model
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Examples Using Conceptual Lenses
1. Soviet Decision Making Putting Missiles In
Cuba Rational Versus Organizational 2.
Implementing The U.S. Naval Blockade Rational
Versus Organizational 3. Explaining U.S. Naval
Missile Procurement in the 1980s Rational
Versus Organizational 4. Choosing To Blockade
Cuba Rational Versus Bureaucratic 5. Japanese
Expansionism In The 1930s Rational Versus
Bureaucratic 6. Syrian Decision Making During
Jordanian Civil War 1970 Rational Versus
Bureaucratic
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Critique Of Allison
1. Some Critics Claim Allison Wants To Throw Out
The Rational Model Unfair Criticism 2.
Bureaucratic Model Assumes Tug Of War Between
Equals 3. Where You Stand Isnt Necessarily
Where You Sit 4. The Resultant Is Not Always
Unintended 5. Remove Accountability From
Presidential Action 6. Organizational Model Best
For Explaining Implementation
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Groupthink

• Group Dynamics and Decision Making
• Is the decision process w/in groups rational?
• Is there pressure to conform?
• Irving Janis (1982) Groupthink
• Examples 1) Bay of Pigs, 1961
• 2) Challenger Disaster, 1986

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Groupthink
Antecedent Conditions

• Insulation of Group
• Homogeneous Group
• Dominating Leadership
• Stressful Situation
• Low Self Esteem
• Recent Failure

Likely Consequences

• Inadequate Probing Of Assumptions And
  Predictions
• Need For Secrecy Led To Isolation Of The Group
• Decision Process Did Not Encourage Open Climate
• Advocates For Policy Also Judge Its Likelihood
  Of Success
• Information Filtered At Lower Levels

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Conclusions

• Attack Unitary Actor Assumption
• Attack Rational Actor Assumption
• Limited Impact on Foreign Policy Decision Making
• Leads to Formal Models of Strategic Interaction