Conflict in Sri Lanka: Lessons from the Peace Process

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Conflict in Sri Lanka Lessons from the Peace
Process

• Anthea Mulakala
• July 2008

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Sri Lanka Snapshot

• 20 million population
• 74 Sinhalese, 13 Tamil, 7 Muslim 6
  PlantationTamil
• Buddhism is dominant religion, Hinduism,
  Christianity, Islam
• Poverty widespread with 45 living on less than
  2 day but SL is considered a MIC
• GDP 6-8 due to garment and services sectors,
  remittances
• Parliamentary system with executive presidency
• Highly centralized state dominated by one ethnic
  group since Independence

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Conflict Dynamics

• Protracted more than 25 yrs of conflict
• Bloody Upwards of 200,000 killed
• Human Rights Abuses abductions, extrajudicial
  killing, child soldiers,
• Centre-periphery highly centralized state in
  direct conflict with LTTE who control a
  peripheral region no meaningful efforts to
  devolve power
• Ethno political or identity based minority Tamil
  grievances based on institutionalized Sinhalese
  dominated state discrimination in language, govt
  jobs, land resettlement
• Minority Majority mentality Tamils are a
  minority in Sri Lanka but a majority in the
  region Sinhalese are majority in Sri Lanka but a
  minority in the region
• Transnational large diaspora support for the
  LTTE in particular (Canada, Australia, UK)
• Multi-polar intra ethnic tensions, divisions
  within political parties

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Peace Process Achievements 2002- 2004

• Informal ceasefires in 1987, 1990, 1994 formal
  ceasefire and peace process from 2002-2006
• Achievements 2002 Peace Process
• no war situation saved lives and improved living
  conditions,
• revitalized economy
• delinked the ethnic conflict from war and
  violence
• international interest in Sri Lanka increased
• generated useful ideas on political settlement
  options
• peace demonstrated that parties to conflict could
  work together to find solutions to difficult
  issues.
• access to the North East and LTTE

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Failings

• Imbalanced focus on economic reform and related
  peace dividends rather than political issues.
• Cohabitation problem between the Prime Minister
  and President
• Inclusivity bilateral process which failed to
  include other communities eg Muslims Govt
  ignored the south, LTTE suppressed other Tamil
  voices
• Root causes not addressed like language rights,
  lack of trust in security forces, power sharing
  and governance
• Parties did not initiate a constructive public
  discussion on how to reconstruct the Sri Lankan
  state
• Little focus on the final solutions whether
  federal or confederal, special autonomy etc.
• Miscalculated internationalization aid
  incentives, weak mandate of SLMM, alliances with
  UNP
• Centrality of human rights not respected
• Poor public communication

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Similarities with other regional conflicts
Battle for self-determination (e.g. Aceh,
Thailand) Conflict has established military
stalemates (e.g. Nepal, Aceh, Philippines) Centre
Periphery Conflict (e.g. Nepal, Thailand, Aceh,
Philippines) Ethno political or Identify
conflict (e.g. Thailand, Philippines) Protracted
Lack of International Involvement (e.g.
Myanmar, Thailand)
Center-periphery conflicts
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Contributing Factors to peace process success in
Indonesia and failure in Sri Lanka

• Sri Lanka
• LTTE as distinctly hierarchical, highly
  centralized, without democratic process
• LTTE proscribed as a terrorist organization
• LTTE heavily armed, trained conventional, naval
  and air capacity
• LTTE runs state within state police, justice,
  education, political, banking
• Lack of acceptance by all parties of any form of
  simple federalism or confederation
• One large majority that dominates the state and
  has conceded little in terms of power sharing
  similar unitarian dominance in LTTE
• Tsunami and related resources further entrenched
  divisions

• Aceh/Indonesia
• GAM had a flatter structure, looser ideology than
  the LTTE
• GAM not proscribed as a terrorist organizatoin
• GAM lightly armed to defeat TNI
• GAM limited state capacity and infrastructure
• Aceh was allocated degree of genuine political
  autonomy within an increasingly loose unitary
  state.
• Indonesia moving more towards democratic system
• Tsunami accelerated peace

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Current Situation in Sri Lanka

• Country at war govt convinced of the necessity
  of military defeat of the LTTE
• North East demerged and political process in the
  East to bring former Tamil rebel faction into
  mainstream and as alternative to LTTE
• LTTE weakened and fractionalized
• North closed East now open for development and
  stabilization
• Human rights abuses escalating by both sides at
  frightening pace
• Humanitarian Crisis
• Govt has shunned international intervention in
  any matters concerning peace, politics or human
  rights and has sought economic and military
  assistance from Pakistan, China, Iran and India
• Hardliners in the ascendancy on both sides
• War economy

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Future Prospects for Sri Lanka
Govt must deliver credible power sharing
arrangements which can satisfy all the
communities in Sri Lanka and allow high degree of
self governance in North and East LTTE must be
willing to settle for less than a separate state
and accept they are not sole representatives of
Tamils Decreasing the power and resource gap
between the centre and periphery Given de-merger
of North and East, peace prospects are unlikely
in near future Careful, long term and balanced
international support
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• Thank you
• amulakala_at_asiafound.org