Presentation of Daniel Albritton NOAA' From "Atmospheric Composition," Breakout Session 3 of the U'S

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Planning Workshop for Scientists and
Stakeholders December 3-5, 2002 Washington, DC
Atmospheric Composition Summary Strategic Plan
for the Climate Change Science Program
Chapter Co-Chairs
Daniel L. Albritton NOAA Aeronomy
Laboratory Boulder, Colorado
Phil DeCola NASA Headquarters Washington, DC
Interagency Group DOE, EPA, NASA, NAVY, NIH,
NOAA, NSF, USDA D. Anderson, R. Ferek, J.
Gleason, M. Grant, T. Keating, D. Kruger, J.
Levy, M. Kurylo, P. Lunn, J. Moyers, A.
Schmoltner, H. Tyrrell, D. Winner
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Todays Summary

• gt Where atmospheric composition fits in
• gt Some key characteristics
• gt Radiative forcing/climate
• gt Ozone layer recovery
• gt Multiple environmental issues
• gt Five foci
• gt For each, examples
• key questions
• research
• payoff
• gt What types of activities
• gt And why
• gt National and international

A little background Current perspectives
and challenges Major research questions,
activities, and payoffs Overall research
approach Partners Products The shape of
the future
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Where Atmospheric Composition Fits In
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
? This coupling gives rise to major environmental
issues
(H2O), CO2, CFCs, CH4, ozone, aerosols
Ozone-Layer Depletion
? Much of the coupling between incoming solar
energy and the atmosphere occurs via trace
constituents
? Changes in trace constituents arise largely
from human activities (surface emissions sources)
Regional Air Quality

• Bottom line Understanding atmospheric
  composition is a key first step in
•  Characterizing the human influence
•  Constructing scenarios/predictions for
  consideration as options
•  Identifying win-win choices in addressing
  multiple issues air quality and climate

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Some Key Characteristics
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Current Perspectives and Challenges A.
Radiative Forcing of the Climate System
IPCC, 2001.
Gas and aerosol contributions (direct and
indirect) Long and short residence times
Global and regional scales
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Current Perspective and Challenges B.
Ozone Layer Recovery
Space-based remote-sensing observations compared
with UNEP baseline emissions scenario time-lagged
5.3 years
Stratospheric Chlorine Abundance
Ground-based remote-sensing
Ground-based in-situ sampling
Observations consistent with emissions decline
Compliance evaluation Ozone-climate coupling
influences long-term recovery New issues
arising (e.g., very short-lived gases)
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Current Perspectives and Challenges C.
Multiple environmental issues
ACE-ASIA Program
Research is beginning to address multiple
issues (e.g., aerosols, climate, and air
quality) Characterization of sign/magnitude of
win/win or win/lose multi-issue strategies
is new policy relevant information
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Major Atmospheric-Composition Research Foci
Ozone Layer Recovery
Aerosols
Chemically- Active Greenhouse
Gases
Regional- Global Couplings
Multiple Environmental Issues
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The Scientific Foci Brief Looks
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Overall Research Approach
A S S E S S M E N T S
Diagnostics Prognostics
Modeling
Information Customers
Governments, Industries, Public
Process Studies
Monitoring
Distributions et al. Trends Variance
Causal Linkages
Decision Support Information
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Linkages With the Information CustomersA
Series of Assessments of Understanding and
Scenarios
?
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
IPCC Third Assessment Report
2002
2004
2006
2003
2005
2000
2001
2007
U.S. Assessment Products Planning Underway
We Are Here
UNEP/WMO 2006 Ozone Layer Assessment
?
UNEP/WMO 2002 Ozone Layer Assessment
Key Factors in the Near-Term Research Planning
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Longer-Term Timeline Key Characteristics
Maintain and build monitoring capability gt
satellite instruments gt integrated (and
persisting!) observing sites Development of
new measurement capability Construction of
science-quality datasets for atmospheric change
parameters Expanded international
partnerships
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National and International Partners Examples
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Key Near-Term (2 - 4 years) Products and Payoffs
A Few Examples
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The Shape of the Future
How to
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Appendix A. Major Research
Questions
Scientific foci
Aerosols Chemically Active Greenhouse
Gases Regional - Global Couplings Ozone
Layer Recovery Multiple Environmental Issues
For each Major research questions Task
Payoff Examples
B. Examples of Key Near-Term Products and
Payoffs
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Aerosols
Question 1 What are the climate-relevant
chemical and radiative properties, and spatial
and temporal distributions, of human-caused and
naturally occurring aerosols?
1. Develop an observationally vetted climatology
of aerosols (including black carbon) distribution
and properties for one or two regions, including
North America, through in-situ airborne,
ground-based, and satellite observations.
(Coupling to the regional air quality issue of
USA) Will provide an observationally vetted
database for calculating the climate forcing by
aerosols and enable comparison of this forcing
with those for long-lived greenhouse gases. 2.
Work towards retrieval of global aerosol optical
depth, as a function of location and time, from
ground and space based observations, augmented by
in-situ observations. Will provide a key step in
the long-term derivation of the aerosols from
space, ground-truthing space measurements, and
data for use in models. Will facilitate
assessment and improvements in the skill of
global models to simulate aerosol distributions
and affects.
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3. Carry out focused attempts at better
quantification of the first indirect effect
(Twomey effect) through process studies and
detailed microphysical and cloud modeling. Will
provide observationally derived estimates of one
of the important indirect effects in the climate
forcing and place better bounds on uncertainties
of indirect effects. 4. Carry out studies to
connect chemical composition of aerosols with
optical properties and, ice and cloud nucleation
abilities of aerosols (including black carbon)
and source of the precursors. (Coupling to the
regional air quality issue of USA) Will help
quantify the connection of emissions to the
various radiative impacts of aerosols.
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Chemically Active Greenhouse Gases
Question 2 What is the current quantitative
skill for simulating the atmospheric budgets of
the growing suite of chemically active greenhouse
gases and their implications for the Earths
energy balance?
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Regional Global phenomena
Question 3 What are the effects of regional
pollution on the global atmosphere and the
effects of global climate and chemical change on
regional air quality and atmospheric chemical
inputs to ecosystems?
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Ozone Layer Recovery
Question 4 What are the time scale and other
characteristics of the recovery of the
stratospheric ozone layer in response to
declining abundances of ozone-depleting gases and
increasing abundances of greenhouse gases?
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Multiple Environmental Issues
Question 5 What are the couplings among climate
change, air pollution, and ozone layer depletion,
which were once considered as separate issues?
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Examples of Key Near-Term Products and Payoffs
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