6th DITTY Steering Committee Siena 2223 September 2005

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6th DITTY Steering Committee Siena 22-23
September 2005 WP8 DSS Development
University of the Aegean, GreeceDept of Marine
Sciences Municipality of Gera E. Avagianou, N.
Tamvaki and G. Tsirtsis
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Overview of the activities during the last six
months

• WP5 Intercomparison analysis between POM and
  Coherens
• Application of LOICZ budget analysis
• Application of Network Analysis
• Application of Loop Analysis
• WP6 Quantification of scenario analysis First
  simulations
• WP7 In progress
• WP8 Development of the DSS for Gera

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Flow diagram of the DSS for Gera
Di
Vi
Environmental indicators
SCENARIO GENERATION
SIMPLIFIED MODEL
Socioeconomic indicators
THRESHOLDS
REJECTED SCENARIOS
V1 Population growth () V2 Tourism increase
() V3 Oliveculture intensification (2 pos.) V4
Agriculture intensification (2 pos.) V5
Aquaculture intensification () D1 Change in
rainfall height due to the climatic change
SUSTAINABILITY TEST
CONSTRAINTS
OPTIMIZATION FUNCTION
SCENARIO RANKING
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Flow diagram of the DSS for Gera

• Simplified Model (3 components)
• Simplified watershed model calculating
  terrestrial loading by changing Vi
• LOICZ budget for the estimation of environmental
  indicators in the marine system
• Socioeconomic component estimating simple
  socioeconomic indicators by changing Vi

• Environmental indicators
• Nutrient loading
• Water residence time
• Eutrophication level
• Others

• Socioeconomic indicators
• Employment
• Total income
• Others

THRESHOLD VALUES Defined for each indicator

• OPTIMIZATION FUNCTION
• A linear combination (with weights possibly
  defined by the end-user)
• of environmental and socioeconomic indicators
• Multicriteria choice methodology

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WPs inputs to the Gera DSS
WP4
WP3
WP5
Watershed model
Land uses, Curve numbers
LOICZ
WP8
Gera DSS
WP6
WP7
Scenario definition
Socioeconomic indicators
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Presentation of the simplified model

• Calculation of loading from non-point sources
• Application of the watershed model developed
  under WP4
• The watershed is divided into 3 parts (eastern,
  western and northern) and each one in six types
  of land use (abandoned olive grooves, terraced
  fertilized olive grooves, terraced not fertilized
  olive grooves, maquis, urban areas and pine
  forests)
• The Curve Number equation is used to calculate
  nutrient loading from each unit area after a
  rainfall event
• NO3, NH3, OrgN and PO4 loadings are calculated
  on a daily basis

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Presentation of the simplified model

• Calculation of loading from other sources
  including sewerage, cattle breeding, olive
  refineries and aquaculture plants
• Use of literature values (e.g. LOICZ) estimating
  the per unit contribution of the various sources
  in N and P multiplied by the number of residents,
  tourists, animals, tons of olives treated and
  tons of fish produced.
• A retention factor is used to take into account
  the decrease in the concentration of pollutants
  due to physical and chemical processes along the
  route connecting the watershed with the sea

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Scenario analysis

• Olive culture intensification (two levels in
  terms of area cultured and application of
  fertilizers)
• Agriculture intensification (two levels
  horticulture and greenhouses)
• Tourism increase (Number of tourists and
  (possibly) the touristic period)
• Urbanization (Number of residents)
• Aquaculture intensification (Tons of fish
  produced)
• Possible combinations
• The sustainable scenarios are ranked based on an
  optimization function or the application of a
  multicriteria choice methodology

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First Results
Possible scenario 2 Oliveculture intensification
(Level 2) 10 increase in the local population
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Future activities

• Calibration of the model based on field data
• Coupling with a marine response model (LOICZ?)
• Quantification of a number of possible
  scenarios (economists/end-user)
• Definition of threshold values (Environmental
  and socioeconomic)
• Definition of the optimization function (or
  method of multicriteria analysis)
• Development of a user-friendly interface

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6th DITTY Steering Committee Siena 22-23
September 2005 WPs 5
University of the Aegean, GreeceDept of Marine
Sciences Z. Kavakli, S. Spatharis, E. Avagianou,
V. Kolovoyiannis and G. Tsirtsis
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Overview of the activities during the last six
months

• WP5 Intercomparison analysis between POM and
  Coherens
• Application of LOICZ budget analysis
• Application of Network Analysis
• Application of Loop Analysis

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WP5 Application of LOICZ budget
Schematic representation of he one layer
single-box model for the gulf of Gera with
sources of incoming/outcoming conservative and
non conservative material.
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WP5 Application of LOICZ budget
Existing Models

• Estimation of Residual (VR) and Mixing (VX) flows
  using the 3D-Hydrodynamic model POM (Princeton
  Ocean Model) calculating hydrodynamic
  circulation, advection and diffusion processes.
• Watershed model calculating erosion/surface
  runoff and the quantities of nutrients and
  organic matter flowing into the marine ecosystem
  through point and non-point sources.

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WP5 Application of LOICZ budget
Equations LOICZ Biogeochemical Guidelines
Groundwater Flow
Residence Time
Non-conservative Material
Rate of Net Ecosystem Metabolism
Difference Between Nitrogen Fixation and
Denitrification
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WP5 Application of LOICZ budget
Scenarios Considered

• Scenario 1 Present State
• Scenario 2 Agriculture Intensification
• Cultivation of horticultural plants, flowers,
  vineyards and construction of greenhouses
• ?increase of fertiliser and pesticide application
  which end up to the gulf through point and
  non-point sources.
• Scenario 3 Urban and Tourism Development
• Population (including tourists) doubling
• ?construction of the supporting infrastructure in
  the form of road network, hotels, restaurants and
  other facilities.

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WP5 Application of LOICZ budget
Results Water Budget

• Groundwater flow
• Of the same order of magnitude for both periods.
• Of the order of magnitude of the evaporation
  flux.
• Residence times
• in agreement with previous studies based on
  completely different methodologies.

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WP5 Application of LOICZ budget
Results Non-conservative Budgets
Summary of non-conservative fluxes during
stratification and mixing periods.
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WP5 Application of LOICZ budget
Results Scenarios
Percentage of change of the non-conservative
parameters in Agricultural and Urban-Tourism
Scenarios in comparison to the Present state of
the marine ecosystem.
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WP5 Application of Network Analysis
Flow diagram of the nitrogen network for the Gulf
of Gera
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WP5 Application of Network Analysis
Histogram of seven system-level indices for the
stratification and mixing periods
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WP5 Application of Network Analysis
The total dependency matrix for the
stratification and mixing periods
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WP5 Application of Loop Analysis
(E) Local Economy-available resources (?)
Tourism-Number of visitors (N) Natural
conservation-available resources (A)
Agricultural activities (U) Urbanization
-a??
?
-aEE
E
A
U
N
-aNN
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• University of Aegean
• Department of Marine Sciences
• WPs 6 and 7
• Modeling
• management options in Gera lagoon
•  
• An integrated scenario approach
•   
• A. Kontogianni, G. Tsirtsis
•  

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Topics of interest

• Delimiting future options
• The mechanisms of scenarios comparison/evaluation
• The basic narratives
• An elaborated version of the Gera scenarios
• Whats next

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Future perspectives

• The choice set of the scenario variables is
  conditioned by
• Balanced deviation from trend due to decision
  makers in Greece exhibiting
• High time preference
• Short planning horizon
• Weak concern on precautionary actions

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Basic Narratives

• A dynamic region of the island with below
  average population density
• Growing urbanization
• Loose implementation of existing legal framework
  (symbolic politics)
• Low interest by NGO and citizens groups

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Basic Narratives

• A heritage of diffuse agricultural pollution
• A heritage of intensive water use for irrigation 
• Importance of olive culture
• Importance of tourism

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Basic Narratives

• Raising interest of public authorities in
  environmental incentive schemes
• Amounts of investment funds (Structural funds)
  directed to the region during 2000-2006
• Importance of Gera for drinking water supply in
  Lesbos

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Basic Narratives

• Duality of social values Intensified consumerism
  in some parts of the watershed Vs stable
  traditional family and culture values in other
  areas

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Designing the scenarios

• Basic narratives
• BAU PT DG

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Main variables

• Population density
• Tourism
• Agriculture
• Aquaculture/Fisheries
• Social Values

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BAU

• Population density Stable, slightly rising. Main
  urban expansion in the coastal zone Uncontrolled
  expansion
• Environmental Policies. Loose monitoring and
  implementation of policies

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BAU

• Agriculture Continuing intensification of
  production. Merging of small parcels into bigger
  ones, concentration of landholding. Reduction of
  agricultural labor force. Raising incomes.
  Recession after the first decade due to increased
  international competition abolishment of
  subsidies and extreme weather conditions.

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BAU

• Fisheries Intensification of fishing, gradual
  recession and abandonment. Unemployment problems.
• Tourism Slow but gradual expansion of mass
  tourism
• Values Increasing consumerism, low priority for
  environmental protection.

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PT

• Targeted Control of eutrophication from
  agricultural sources.
• Population Rising
• Housing Lower rate of expansion, especially at
  the coastal zone due to the enforcement of
  existing legal framework.

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PT

• Agriculture Raising importance of extensive
  agriculture, higher added value of agricultural
  products, some implementation of the Codes for
  Good Agricultural Practices.
• Fisheries Fishing yields continue to decrease
  due to restrictions and quotas enacted by the
  local authorities. Later, fishing is stabilized.

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DG

• Targeted Control of eutrophication from
  agricultural sources plus protection of coastal
  biotopes.
• Population Rising
• Policies Enforced environmental policies Fully
  controlled rate of housing expansion.

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DG

• Agriculture Strong incentives for set-aside
  schemes. Only extensive agriculture, high added
  value of agricultural products, full
  implementation of the Codes for Good Agricultural
  Practices.
• Fisheries Fishing yields decreasing for some
  period but stabilization after the full
  implementation of CAP.

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Scenarios Parameters
Parameters
Scenarios
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Preliminary assessment of Benefit transfer for
Economic values of clean water
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WHAT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED UP TO NOW FOR WP6,
WP7

• Definition /description of management options
• Assessment of qualitative scenarios by
  stakeholders
• Ongoing assessment of implementation cost of
  scenarios
• Ongoing refinement of benefit transfer for each
  scenario
• Check costs and benefits with stakeholders

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WHATS NEXT

• Assessment of quantitative scenarios by
  stakeholders
• Integration of stakeholders views into management
  options
• Test hypotheses for consistency
• Overall economic ranking of scenarios according
  to DSS