Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

1
Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
EconomyIHEC 2005, Istanbul

• William Wilson
• Director, Cambrensis Ltd

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• William Grove Father of the Fuel Cell

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• The problem of global climate change is one that
  affects us all. It is no good squabbling over who
  should pay.
• Conservative Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher,
  United Nations, 1989

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• What is now plain is that the emission of
  greenhouse gases, associated with
  industrialisation and strong economic growth from
  a world population that has increased six fold in
  200 years, is causing global warming at a rate
  that began as significant, has become alarming
  and is simply unsustainable in the long-term. And
  by long-term I do not mean centuries ahead. I
  mean within the lifetime of my children
  certainly and possibly within my own. And by
  unsustainable, I do not mean a phenomenon causing
  problems of adjustment. I mean a challenge so
  far-reaching in its impact and irreversible in
  its destructive power, that it alters radically
  human existence.
• Labour Prime Minister Tony Blair , London , 14
  September 2004

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• the need to drive towards a consensus often
  leads to a kind of lowest common denominator. I
  am afraid that my view is that the potential
  impacts on our civilisation are rather more
  serious, not less serious than you would find in
  the IPCCs synthesis report.
• UK Government Chief Scientist Sir David King,
  March 2005

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Thames Barrier

• Constructed as flood defence on lower Thames
  below London 1982
• When commissioned it was anticipated it would be
  used once every three years
• Currently being used on average seven times a
  year
• Direct damage to London of failing to raise the
  barrier on a single occasion estimated at
  Sterling 30 billion (about US54.3 billion)

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• If you take a 30-year view in your economic
  analysis, you would have to say it is better to
  adapt than to mitigate. If you take a 100-year
  view, and sea levels are likely to rise then if
  we have unabated carbon emissions, you would have
  to be talking about writing off London.
• UK Government Chief Scientist Sir David King
  March 2005

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• "We urge all nations, in line with the UNFCC
  principles, to take prompt action to reduce the
  causes of climate change, adapt to its impacts
  and ensure that the issue is included in all
  relevant national and international strategies."
• Joint Statement by the Heads of the National
  Science Academies ofBrazil, Canada, China,
  France, Germany, India,Italy, Japan, Russia,
  United Kingdom, United States of America7 June
  2005

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• CLIMATE CHANGE NEW DATA, NEW CONCLUSIONS

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography - AAAS Spring
  Meeting 2005

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution on Greenland
  ice mass and effects on Gulf Stream - AAAS Spring
  Meeting 2005

• CLIMATE CHANGE NEW DATA, NEW CONCLUSIONS

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution on Greenland
  ice mass and effects on Gulf Stream - AAAS Spring
  Meeting 2005

• CLIMATE CHANGE NEW DATA, NEW CONCLUSIONS

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• University of Miami example of effects on Short
  Tailed Shearwater
• - AAAS Spring Meeting 2005

• CLIMATE CHANGE NEW DATA, NEW CONCLUSIONS

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• The Greenland ice sheet is more than three
  kilometres thick in places and contains nearly
  three million cubic kilometres of ice. If it were
  to melt, sea levels around the world would rise
  by about seven metres, inundating many coastlines
  and most of the worlds great cities in
  developing and developed countries alikeBy
  looking at a range of climate sensitivities from
  different IPCC models, we have estimated that
  this warming will occur by 2100 in most of the
  IPCC models, even if emissions were on a course
  to stabilise at 550 ppm CO2 or its equivalent..
• United Kingdom Hadley Centre , 2005

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• HYDROGEN ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? -
  CHINA

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• HYDROGEN ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? -
  CHINA

If China and India increased their energy
consumption to the level of South Korea, these 2
countries alone would need 119 mbd of oil a day
55 more than the entire world demand in
2000. Fortune magazine, quoted in Rifkins The
Hydrogen Economy
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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• HYDROGEN ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? -
  CHINA

• 80 of Chinas energy is from coal
• Plans for 544 new coal-fired power stations in
  China today
• Effects of a 50cm sea level rise on Shanghai,
  population 16-17 million?

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• LESSONS FROM NUCLEAR
• The energy of the future?
• UK government Energy White Paper, 1953

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Experts would be mobilized to apply atomic
  energy to the needs of agriculture, medicine and
  other peaceful activities. A special purpose
  would be to provide abundant electrical energy in
  the power starved areas of the world. Thus the
  contributing Powers would be dedicating some of
  their strength to serve the needs rather than the
  fears of mankind.
• President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Atoms for
  Peace, United Nations, 1953

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• NUCLEAR DELIVERED

• NUCLEAR PROMISED

• Windscale fire, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl,
  persistent failure to deal effectively with
  nuclear waste
• Will Hydrogen go the same way, by failing to
  address its disadvantages properly?

• Unlimited cheap power, negligible costs, no
  problems

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Leakages of hydrogen from the infrastructure
  necessary for its production, transportation and
  uses may have greenhouse effects on the upper
  atmosphere.
• H2 is a greenhouse gas by virtue of its
  tropospheric chemistry and its role in changing
  the build-up of methane and ozone
• The global warming consequences of the global
  hydrogen economy will depend on the leakage rates
  for hydrogen manufacture, storage and
  distribution systems
• IPCC Working Group I report recognised that a
  future H2 economy would act as a potential
  climate perturbation
• Dr Dick Derwent MBE, then senior climate
  scientist of the UK Meteorological Office,
  Cambrensis seminar 2003

• HYDROGEN AS A GREENHOUSE GAS

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• INDUSTRY SHIFT?

No known environmental impact it doesnt
pollute. an alternative clean fuel, which, at
its point of use, produces no atmosphere
polluting emissions. (emphasis
added). Statements by the same industrial gases
company
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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• PHYSICAL AND SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF HYDROGEN
• CH4 H2
• Diffusion coefficient (cm2s-1) 0.16 4
• Ignition energy (mj) 0.29 0.02
• Flammability limits () 5.3-15 4-75
• Shockwave overpressure 1 bar 30 bar
• Character (Brisance) 10msec 10?sec
• Flame Temperature (K) 1875 2045
• Dr David Slater, Cambrensis Ltd

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Full implications of moving from an industrial
  market, where hydrogen is properly handled, to a
  retail market, where it may be the fuel in the
  family car?
• Technical and design solutions? Or propaganda?

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Hydrogen no longer blamed for the Hindenburg
  disaster
• Website of the U.S. National Hydrogen
  Association, May 2005

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Claim based on NASA paper by Bain and van Vorst,
  attributing cause of fire as ignition of
  flammable material from doped skin of airship
  soaked in cellulose butyrate
• Paper read as arguing that because fabric
  contributed to the fire, hydrogen was innocent of
  all blame, the fabric was responsible and
  therefore hydrogen is, overall, safe.
• Slater and Bowen take issue with the wholesale
  exoneration of Hydrogen as a critical contributor
  to the Hindenburg disaster, which they argue
  overlooks the way in which hydrogen burns, its
  flammability, ignition energy, burning rate and
  mixtures, and say that hydrogen would certainly
  have contributed to the combustion.

Dr David Slater and Prof Phil Bowen, paper at
Cambrensis Seminar The Hydrogen Economy Risk,
Safety and Public Perception London Dec. 2004
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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Wrong to imply that there is no real need to
  continue to question hydrogen safety if it was
  not to blame for the Hindenburg. Risk and
  hazard analysis and even rational discussion are
  discouraged by this approach, and safety is
  potentially marginalized if industry comes to
  believe its own propaganda.
• Slater and Bowen argue that hydrogen is
  potentially a very hazardous fuel, and the
  associated risks and hazards require careful,
  responsible management. Public explanation and
  transparent openness concerning its risks are
  necessary if public confidence is to be built on
  a secure foundation.

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• If the public are misled into thinking that there
  are no safety issues worth discussing, what is
  the public reaction going to be to the first
  exploding car, bus or hydrogen installation?
• Disbelief, distrust of the whole industry and the
  whole fuel, unwillingness to listen to any
  further assurances, and unwillingness to accept
  any further developments? This is not the way for
  this industry to go.

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• CONCLUSIONS

• Members of the public take risk decisions all day
  what to eat, whether to smoke, how to travel
• Public is better equipped to deal with real
  information than many industries accept
• Public information is about more than
  "educational" campaigns which simply bombard the
  public with positive messages and propaganda
  about hydrogen and trivialise its disadvantages.
• This industry's most important "licence to
  operate" will be informed public understanding
  and acceptance, which takes longer.
• The hydrogen industry needs to do far more to
  take seriously the issue of winning proper public
  acceptance, if it is not to repeat the mistakes
  of the nuclear industry.
• As the full implications of climate change become
  apparent, it seems clear that the opportunities
  that Hydrogen represents are too important to be
  squandered.

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Current Sea Level

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Sea Level 1m

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Sea Level 2m

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Sea Level 3m

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Sea Level 4m

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Sea Level 5m

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Sea Level 6m

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Public Policy, Public Opinion and the Hydrogen
Economy IHEC 2005, Istanbul

• Istanbul - Sea Level 7m