Energy and the Global Economy Gordon J. Aubrecht, II author of Energy: Physical, Environmental, and Social Impact (Prentice Hall, 2006) http://vig.prenhall.com/catalog/academic/product/0,1144,0130932221,00.html Physics Education Research Group Ohio - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 117
About This Presentation
Title:

Energy and the Global Economy Gordon J. Aubrecht, II author of Energy: Physical, Environmental, and Social Impact (Prentice Hall, 2006) http://vig.prenhall.com/catalog/academic/product/0,1144,0130932221,00.html Physics Education Research Group Ohio

Description:

The cost of oil (in constant dollars), and the gasoline made from it, was higher ... planet, or we can bury our collective heads in the sand (like Mr. Kessler) ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:11055
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 118
Provided by: GordonA3
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Energy and the Global Economy Gordon J. Aubrecht, II author of Energy: Physical, Environmental, and Social Impact (Prentice Hall, 2006) http://vig.prenhall.com/catalog/academic/product/0,1144,0130932221,00.html Physics Education Research Group Ohio


1
Energy and the Global EconomyGordon J.
Aubrecht, IIauthor of Energy Physical,
Environmental, and Social Impact (Prentice Hall,
2006)http//vig.prenhall.com/catalog/academic/pro
duct/0,1144,0130932221,00.htmlPhysics Education
Research GroupOhio State University Marion
CampusTalk presented at Great Decisions, 6
March 2009
2

3
Abstract The Fourth Assessment Report of the
IPCC was released in 2007 and dealt with the
scientific basis for climate change, consequences
of emissions, and mitigation and adaptation. The
cost of oil (in constant dollars), and the
gasoline made from it, was higher through the
first half of 2008 than at any time in history
before declining with the global economic
downturn. In response, for the first time in
decades, Americans drove less. For the first
time, a majority of Americans polled understand
that global warming will lead to significant
change in climate. How will these changes affect
future actions of citizens of North America and
the world? What can be done to protect the future
of our children and grandchildren? This talk will
focus on human effects on Earth and their import
for the future of the global economy.
4
All of us live on this precious jewel of a
planet. How many of us have not been moved to
see the photographs of Earth from space?But
now there are more than 6.5 billion of us here,
and nearly half must live on under 2 a day.The
poorest people live in a world shaped by the rich
countries.
5
In yesterdays Delaware Gazette, there was a
letter to the editor from Mr. Rob Kessler
entititled Smart drivers are fooling
themselves. Among other things he said was
What a bunch of hogwash! I am so tired of
hearing about mans effect on so-called global
warming and climate change. We couldnt alter the
climate even if we tried. The truth is, Mother
Nature does more to harm the environment and
climate than Man could ever possibly do. Do you
actually know how much garbage is spewed into the
air when a volcano erupts or how much methane gas
is emitted because of cow flatulence? What utter
hubris it is to think that man has the ability to
alter the awesome forces of nature!
6
Actually, yes, Mr. Kessler. Humanity does have
the ability to alter the environment. It seems
likely that humans have been affecting the
environment for over five thousand years.Lets
take the statement about cow flatulence, indeed a
big source of methane emissions. Why is this a
problem? Well, there are now about 1.5 billion
cows in the world. How many cow ancestors were
there prior to domestication some 5 to 10
thousand years ago? Clearly, not that many! Who
is responsible, Mr. Kessler, for this large a
number? We are. And cows release almost one-fifth
of the worlds greenhouse gases, mostly through
belching (but also through flatulence). Total
methane emission is 53.9 Mte/yr.
7
How many were there before humans domesticated
cattle? We cant know, but in sub-Saharan Africa,
there are roughly 100,000 hippos. Because there
was probably about five to ten times as much land
suitable for grazing herbivores in the world, we
can guess that the ancestral cattle population
was perhaps 500,000 to 1 million. Thats
one-fifteen-hundredths of the number of cattle
today. Humans have made a pretty big difference.
If we add sheep, goats, pigs, and other
domesticated animals, the amount of methane
generated per year by animal husbandry increases
to about 80 Mte.
8
Humans in large numbers are fishing the oceans
barren. Anyone who looks at the data can see that
6.5 billion humans do indeed affect Mother
Nature. Even humans in small numbers do have
effects on climate. Ruddiman has shown that the
difference between this interglacial and the
preceding three (all driven by the same
Milankovich parameters) began around 7500 years
ago. This is the time when domestication was
taking place, when trees were being felled for
arable land, when rice (a prodigious methane
emitter) was being domesticated.
9
Volcanic emissions certainly affect Earth. No one
doubts that. Mt. Pinatubo lowered the worlds
temperature by 0.5 C in 1992 by virtue of the
25-30 million tonnes of SO2 it put into the
atmosphere, the most massive sulfate aerosol
cloud since the Krakatoa eruption of 1883 (which
put over 20 km3 of dust into the stratosphere).
This sulfate aerosol and stratospheric dust cools
Earth.
USGS
10
Volcanic emissions include CO2. Volcanic activity
releases about 130 to 230 Mte/yr of CO2, a large
amount of course. However, Mr. Kessler, humans
currently release over 8 Gte/yr over 35 times
as much.
11
So, Im going to show you why humans are
implicated in global warming in addition to
talking about energy and the economy.The best
source of material is the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC), run by the UN and the
WMO (World Meterological Organisation).
12
Many of you have heard of the IPCC. For those of
you who have not, it is run by the UN and the WMO
and is made up of scientific experts who comb
through what is known in the scientific
literature and summarize the findings. Diversity
of views is solicited. About one-third of the
scientists in the first assessment participated
in the second, about one-third who were in the
second participated in the third, and so on.
Governments (180 members) vote line by line on
the Summaries for Policymakers. (You may have
heard of the resistance of the US and China to
these reports in 2007, which reports do reflect
their objections.)
13
Here is an extremely condensed summary of the
results of the four assessments to date1990
First Assessment ReportThe unequivocal
detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from
observations is not likely for a decade or
more.1995 Second Assessment ReportThe
balance of evidence suggests a discernable human
influence on global climate.2001 Third
Assessment ReportThere is new and stronger
evidence that most of the warming observed over
the last 50 years is attributable to human
activities.2007 Fourth Assessment ReportMost
of the observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
14
Terminology used by IPCCLikelihood of the
occurrence / outcomeVirtually certain gt99
probability Very likely 90 to 99
probabilityLikely 66 to 90 probabilityAbout
as likely as not 33 to 66 probabilityUnlikely
10 to 33 probabilityVery unlikely 1 to 10
probabilityExceptionally unlikely lt1
probability
15
Let me repeat the last statement from the 2007
Fourth Assessment Report, which may not have
looked very impressive when you saw itMost of
the observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.
Very likely means a 90 to 99 probability! IPCC
was not kidding around about this.
16
The IPCC report actually comes from amalgamation
of results from three separate Working Groups
the scientific basis (WG1) impacts,
adaptation, and vulnerability (WG2) and
mitigation of climate change (WG3).
17
Why CO2 is implicated Humans began to affect
the world when people began to clear land and
grow crops around 8000 years ago. Then the
industrial revolution involved fossil fuel
burning on an unprecedented scale.
18
How human CO2 is implicated (US emissions)
19
How human CO2 is implicated (US energy)
20
How human CO2 is implicated
21
How human CO2 is implicated Photosynthesis on
land or in the sea always takes more of the
lower-mass carbon (carbon-12) from the mix of
available CO2. So carbon fixed by plants will
always have a ?13C value less than that of the
source CO2.
22
(No Transcript)
23
Electricity transportation emissions are
growing fastest.
24
(No Transcript)
25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
(No Transcript)
28
Defining what is dangerous anthropogenic
interferencewith the climate system and,
consequently, the limits to beset for policy
purposes are complex tasks that can only
bepartially based on science, as such
definitions inherentlyinvolve normative
judgments. IPCC Working Group 3
29
Table 1. A simple typology of uncertainties
Type UnpredictabilityIndicative examples
of sources Projections of human behaviour not
easily amenable to prediction (e.g., evolution of
political systems).Chaotic components of
complex systems.Typical approaches or
considerationsUse of scenarios spanning a
plausible range, clearly stating assumptions,
limits considered, and subjective
judgments.Ranges from ensembles of model runs.
30
Table 1. A simple typology of uncertainties
Type Structural uncertaintyIndicative
examples of sources Inadequate models,
incomplete or competing conceptual frameworks,
lackof agreement on model structure, ambiguous
system boundaries or definitions, significant
processes or relationships wrongly specified or
not considered.Typical approaches or
considerationsSpecify assumptions and system
definitions clearly, compare models with
observations for a range of conditions, assess
maturity of the underlying science and degree to
which understanding is based on fundamental
concepts tested in other areas.
31
Table 1. A simple typology of uncertainties
Type Value uncertaintyIndicative examples
of sources Missing, inaccurate or
non-representative data, inappropriate spatial or
temporalresolution, poorly known or changing
model parameters.Typical approaches or
considerationsAnalysis of statistical
properties of sets of values (observations, model
ensembleresults, etc) bootstrap and
hierarchical statistical tests comparison of
models with observations.
32
This Tony Auth cartoon (published in The
Philadelphia Inquirer on April 10, 2007) gives a
slightly scary view of the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report
33
(No Transcript)
34
IPCC Working Group 1 saysThe global
atmospheric nitrous oxide concentration increased
from a pre-industrial value of about 270 ppb to
319 ppb in 2005. The growth rate has been
approximately constant since 1980. More than a
third of all nitrous oxide emissions are
anthropogenic and are primarily due to
agriculture.The combined radiative forcing due
to increases in carbon dioxide, methane, and
nitrous oxide is 2.30 2.07 to 2.53 W m2,
and its rate of increase during the industrial
era is very likely to have been unprecedented in
more than 10,000 years.
35

36
IPCC Working Group 1 saysWarming of the
climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident
from observations of increases in global average
air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice, and rising global average sea
level.
37
IPCC Working Group 1 saysAt continental,
regional and ocean basin scales, numerous
long-term changes in climate have been observed.
These include changes in arctic temperatures and
ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts,
ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of
extreme weather including droughts, heavy
precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of
tropical cyclones. Palaeoclimatic information
supports the interpretation that the warmth of
the last half century is unusual in at least the
previous 1,300 years. The last time the polar
regions were significantly warmer than present
for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago),
reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 m of
sea level rise.
38
IPCC Working Group 1 saysMost of the observed
increase in global average temperatures since the
mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations. This is an advance since the
TARs conclusion that most of the observed
warming over the last 50 years is likely to have
been due to the increase in greenhouse gas
concentrations. Discernible human influences now
extend to other aspects of climate, including
ocean warming, continental-average temperatures,
temperature extremes and wind patterns. For
the next two decades, a warming of about 0.2 C
per decade is projected for a range of SRES
emission scenarios. Even if the concentrations of
all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept
constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming
of about 0.1 C per decade would be expected.
There is now higher confidence in projected
patterns of warming and other regional-scale
features, including changes in wind patterns,
precipitation and some aspects of extremes and of
ice.
39
Note the blue. It shows the effect of natural
emissions.The IPCC does NOT ignore natural
causes as Mr. Kessler and others suggest.
40
Observedtemporal changes in animals and plants
with changes over the same timeperiods in
observed temperatures as well as modeled
temperatures using (i) onlynatural climate
forcing (ii) only anthropogenic climate forcing
and (iii) bothforcings combined.Neither works
well by itselfboth are needed.
41
(No Transcript)
42
IPCC Working Group 1 saysBoth past and future
anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions will
continue to contribute to warming and sea level
rise for more than a millennium, due to the time
scales required for removal of this gas from the
atmosphere. If ?T 1.5 C - 2.5 C, 20 to
30 of plants and animals at high risk of
extinction.
IPCC Working Group 2 saysTemperature changes in
5 by 5 cells that cover the globe, 2001-2006.
The expected random result is in gray (curve).
Blue shows cooling. Red shows warming.
43
Whats happening to Earths temperature? (IPCC,
to 2006)
44
(No Transcript)
45
(No Transcript)
46
United States annual temperature--the 25 warmest
years (C)Note that 9 of the warmest 25 years
are from the past decade (red). The missing year
is 2008, which was the 39th warmest in the 114
years of US temperature history at 11.68 C
(ahead of, for example, 1997 at 40th).One would
expect that smaller landmasses would exhibit more
variation than the globe.
1 1998 12.82
2 2006 12.80
3 1934 12.68
4 1999 12.60
5 1921 12.52
6 2001 12.45
7 2007 12.43
8 2005 12.42
9 1990 12.38
10 1931 12.38
11 1953 12.31
12 1987 12.28
13 1954 12.28
14 1986 12.27
15 2003 12.23
16 1939 12.23
17 2000 12.22
18 2002 12.19
19 1938 12.19
20 1991 12.17
21 1981 12.17
22 2004 12.13
23 1933 12.08
24 1946 12.07
25 1994 12.03
47
Lets look at the global temperature. What is the
chance that so many of the last 25 warmest years
(in red) were among the last 25 years? Not very
large!
48
Hurricanes
49
(No Transcript)
50
(No Transcript)
51
(No Transcript)
52
(No Transcript)
53
(No Transcript)
54
IPCC Working Group 3 saysGlobal greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions have grown since pre-industrial
times, with an increase of 70 between 1970 and
2004. (high agreement, much evidenceWith
current climate change mitigation policies and
related sustainable development practices, global
GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next
few decades. (high agreement, much
evidence).Both bottom-up and top-down studies
indicate that there is substantial economic
potential for the mitigation of global GHG
emissions over the coming decades, that could
offset the projected growth of global emissions
or reduce emissions below current levels. (high
agreement, much evidence)
55
IPCC Working Group 3 saysEnergy efficiency
options for new and existing buildings could
considerably reduce CO2 emissions with net
economic benefit. Many barriers exist against
tapping this potential, but there are also large
co-benefits. (high agreement, much
evidence).The economic potential in the
industrial sector is predominantly located in
energy intensive industries. Full use of
available mitigation options is not being made in
either industrialized or developing nations.
(high agreement, much evidence)Agricultural
practices collectively can make a significant
contribution at low cost to increasing soil
carbon sinks, to GHG emission reductions, and by
contributing biomass feedstocks for energy use.
(medium agreement, medium evidence)
56
IPCC Working Group 3 saysGeo-engineering
options, such as ocean fertilization to remove
CO2 directly from the atmosphere, or blocking
sunlight by bringing material into the upper
atmosphere, remain largely speculative and
unproven, and with the risk of unknown
side-effects. Reliable cost estimates for these
options have not been published. (medium
agreement, limited evidence) Policies that
provide a real or implicit price of carbon could
create incentives for producers and consumers to
significantly invest in low-GHG products,
technologies and processes. Such policies could
include economic instruments, government funding
and regulation. (high agreement, much evidence)
57
(No Transcript)
58
How can emissions be reduced? (IPCC) Sector
(Selected) Key mitigation technologies and
practices currently commercially available.
BuildingsEfficient lighting efficient
appliances and air conditioning improved
insulation solar heating and cooling
alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation
and appliancesTransportMore fuel efficient
vehicles hybrid vehicles biofuels modal shifts
from road transport to rail and public transport
systems cycling, walking land-use planning
59
(No Transcript)
60
Energy Supplyefficiency fuel switching nuclear
power renewable (hydropower, solar, wind,
geothermal and bioenergy) combined heat and
power early applications of CO2 capture and
storageWasteLandfill methane recovery waste
incineration with energy recovery composting
recycling and waste minimizationForestsAfforest
ation reforestation forest management reduced
deforestation use of forestry products for
bioenergyAgricultureLand management to
increase soil carbon storage restoration of
degraded lands improved rice cultivation
techniques improved nitrogen fertilizer
application dedicated energy cropsIndustryMore
efficient electrical equipment heat and power
recovery material recycling control of non-CO2
gas emissions
61
(No Transcript)
62
(No Transcript)
63
Wave energy possibilities.
64
Obviously, any mitigation and/or pushback on
emissions that humanity undertakes will have an
enormous effect on the world economy.However,
it is clear that many of the costs of reducing
CO2 emissions are actually negative!
65
(No Transcript)
66
(No Transcript)
67
(No Transcript)
68
Yes, it will cost a lot to deal with climate
change after we skim the low-hanging fruit. The
IPCC estimates that getting into
net-positive-cost territory will end up taking
about 3 of world GDP.
69
Of course, our economy depends on oil. In fact,
even President Bush admitted that the US was
addicted to oil.But even oil isnt our whole
problem. Coal fires up our electricity. Coal
produces 2.5 times as much CO2 per unit of energy
released.
70
Pres. Bushs idea of using alternative fuels to
solve North Americas addiction to oil
71
(No Transcript)
72
What has happened to the price of oil?Youve
heard about the price of a barrel going over 140
last summer, then dropping due to the global
economic collapse
73
Inflation-adjusted oil price (2000 ) Its
returned to 2005 levels now.
74
(No Transcript)
75
(No Transcript)
76
(No Transcript)
77
Hmm

78
Per capita energy consumption Canada and the US
are far out front.
79
Who uses petroleum?

80
Chinese traffic jam (Xiamen, south China)
81
Per capita auto ownership
82
You can see that transportation is a big emitter
of CO2. Whats happening there in the various
countries?The US has 250,851,833 registered
vehicles. About 8 M are sold each year.Canada
has 27,577,524 registered vehicles. About 1.7 M
are sold each year.Europe has about 170 million
vehicles. About 3 M are sold each year.China
has about 120 million private vehicles. It had
just 2.9 million in 1996. About 11 M are now
being sold every year.India has about 10
million vehicles. About 1 M are now being sold
each year.
83
Biggest petroleum increases since 1960,
2000Table 11.10, 2007 Annual Energy Review
84
Per capita oil consumption Canada and the US
lead the pack
85
Who uses natural gas?
86
Clearly, the per capita results are skewed
differently from the net consumption. Canada and
the US are again among the greatest users per
capita.
87
Electricity is responsible for CO2 as well.
88
Electricity
89
What do we see here?The Unites States is a big
gorilla, but China and India are growing rapidly
in energy use, including petroleum. Canada has an
outsize effect as well.
90
Where will the most growth take place (after the
economic crisis abates)?In those very regions
where the use currently is lowest.
91
Consumers over 5 MWh/person/yr
92
Consumers under 5 MWh/person/yr
93
The average Canadian now uses 37 more
electricity than the average American.

94
We can see that an average American uses over ten
times as much electricity as an average Chinese.
95
What will happen when the average Chinese
electricity use reaches that of the average
American?What will happen when the average
Chinese family has as many cars as the average
American family?

96
We can also see that the average American uses
over 25 times as much electricity as the average
Indian.

97
What will happen when the average Indian
electricity use reaches that of the average
American?What will happen when the average
Indian family has as many cars as the average
American family?
98
This is a serious problem The US currently
consumes a whopping 99.54 EJ/yr. Lets see
how much energy China would consume at the US
per capita rate99.54 EJ/yr x
1,321,851,888/304,601,492 414 EJ (currently, 64
EJ, an increase of 350 EJ5.5 times as much as
now).Now, do the same for India99.54 EJ/yr x
1,129,866,154/304,601,492 354 EJ (currently, 15
EJ, an increase of 340 EJabout 23 times as much).
99
  • More electricity probably means more coal
    generating plants. More coal means more coal
    mining.
  • Which of the following countries has more than a
    thousand coal mine fires currently burning?
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • The United States

100
The real answer (not listed)All of the
above.China, India, and the US probably have
about 6000 fires apiece burning. Indonesia
probably has only about 3000.
101
Bringing just these two countries to the US
standard would involve generating seven times as
much energy as the US does currently. Given that
these countries are mainly burning coal for
electricity, that means that these two countries
alone would emit something like seven times as
much greenhouse gas as the US currently does, or
worse.
102
In 2006, the US emitted about 6 Gt of CO2. China
emitted 5.3 Gt India emitted 1.2 Gt. Last year,
China surpassed the US as the worlds greatest
greenhouse gas emitter.Lets do some simple
arithmetic If China gets to US standards with
current technology, it will emit 5.5 times as
much greenhouse gas as now every year--or 29
Gt. India will emit 22.7 times as much greenhouse
gas as now each year--or 27 Gt. The increase
from these two is an additional24 Gt 26 Gt
50 Gt of CO2.
103
Carbon dioxide emissions

104

Carbon dioxide emissions
105
So, in these immortal words (of James Lovell, for
those of you old enough to remember Apollo 13, or
to have seen the film)Houston, we have a
problem.
106
After 1973 we had a national 55 mi/h speed limit.
We also had lines at gas stations, and stations
ran out of gas.
107
Business as usual is unacceptable. I havent
even mentioned peak oil in this talk, which will
(when it is recognized to have happened) have a
profound impact on everyone.
108
The importance of a price of carbon Policies
that provide a real or implicit price of carbon
could create incentives for producers and
consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG
products, technologies and processes. Such
policies could include economic instruments,
government funding and regulation For
stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon
prices should reach 20-80 US/tCO2eq by 2030
(5-65 if induced technological change happens)
At these carbon prices large shifts of
investments into low carbon technologies can be
expected
109
(No Transcript)
110
We need to advance renewable energy development,
reduce power plant and automotive emissions
substantially, and develop energy technology.
Its for our childrens sake.
111
The importance of technology policies
Deployment of low-GHG emission technologies and
RDD would be required for achieving
stabilization targets and cost reduction. The
lower the stabilization levels, especially those
of 550 ppm CO2-eq or lower, the greater the need
for more efficient RDD efforts and investment in
new technologies during the next few decades.
Government support through financial
contributions, tax credits, standard setting and
market creation is important for effective
technology development, innovation and
deployment. Government funding for most energy
research programs has been flat or declining for
nearly two decades (even after the UNFCCC came
into force) now about half of 1980 level.
112
(No Transcript)
113
(No Transcript)
114
We are at war with the Earth and as in a
blitzkrieg, events proceed faster than we can
respond. James Lovelock, originator of the Gaia
idea (that the planet behaves as an organism), in
a lecture to the Royal Society, 30 October 2007
115
Change is coming ... Can we ameliorate or
adapt?In his Royal Society speech, Lovelock
also said We are not merely a disease we are
through our intelligence and communication the
planetary equivalent of a nervous system. We
should be the heart and mind of the Earth, not
its malady.
116
What sort of future do we want for our children?
Its up to us. We can pay the price needed to
continue to live on our wonderful planet, or we
can bury our collective heads in the sand (like
Mr. Kessler).
117
(No Transcript)
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com