The Use of Conceptual Models in the Solano Co' HCPNCCP

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The Use of Conceptual Models in the Solano Co.
HCP/NCCP

• Rebecca Doubledee
• LSA Associates Inc.

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Talk Outline

• What is a model?
• What is the benefit of using models in the Solano
  Co. HCP/NCCP?
• Where do conceptual models fit into the NCCP/HCP
  Conservation Program and adaptive management
  feedback loop?
• What are the key components of a
  management-oriented conceptual model?
• I will go over an example of a conceptual model
  developed for the California tiger salamander
• Hierarchy of models how we will go from species
  to natural community models
• Following strategy outlined by Atkinson et al.
  (2004)
• Designing monitoring programs in an adaptive
  management context for regional multiple species
  conservation plans

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What is a model?

• A model is a simplified description of a complex
  entity or process such as a species or ecosystem.

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Benefits of Using Conceptual models

• Summarize existing knowledge and hypotheses about
  a system
• Identify and prioritize critical uncertainties
  that require further research and important
  components of the system to monitor
• Communicate understanding of the system
• Facilitate outside review of the conservation and
  management programs
• Link conservation plan goals and objectives to
  causes of change and to management activities and
  program actions
• i.e. complete the adaptive management loop.

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Where do conceptual models fit into the NCCP/HCP
adaptive management feedback loop?
Help complete the adaptive management loop
Sections 3, 4 and 5 of the Solano Co. HCP/NCCP
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Key Components of a management-oriented
conceptual model
State of Environment the condition of ecological
processes, habitats, and species (and their
inter-relationships), which are directly or
indirectly addressed by program objectives.
Program Actions these include the conservation
strategy of the NCCP/HCP and ongoing management
activities expected to impact the state of
Environment or Pressures.
Pressures agents that either promote or inhibit
change in the state of the environment.
Pressures can be anthropogenic or natural and may
include natural constraints such as seed
dispersal.
Effects these are changes resulting from either
Pressures or Program Actions
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State of Environment
California Tiger Salamander Conceptual
Model
Adults migrate to aquatic breeding sites during
fall and early winter then migrate back into
upland habitat. Less than 1 are expected to move
more than 0.7 miles. Multiple breeding sites
should be within 0.7 miles of each other. Key
population parameter is number of returning
females.
Breeding Adults
Adult salamanders are terrestrial, living
underground in mammal Burrows. Need at least 330
acres of upland habitat to support a viable
population

• Eggs are laid singly or
• In clumps on both
• submerged and emergent
• vegetation or in ponds
• without vegetation, on the
• bottom or on submerged
• debris in shallow water.

Eggs and Larvae
Adults
Larvae are 10.5 mm in length when hatched and
vary from 41 to 78 mm at metamorphosis.
Metamorphosis occurs in late spring or early
summer, 60 to 94 days after the eggs are
laid. Larvae need ponds with a hydroperiod of
approximately 3 months or more
Juveniles emerge in early summer and seek shelter
in rodent burrows. 95 of subadults were found
within 1968 ft (600m) of breeding habitat.
Juveniles/subadults
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Steps to Developing Natural Community Conceptual
Models

• Identify the needs and important pressures
  affecting covered species
• Combine species models to identify the important
  pressures affecting natural communities
• Develop a Conservation and Management Program
  that addresses the needs of the covered species
  and the natural communities.

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Step 2 Combine Species Models
Species 1
Species 2
Species n



Natural Community Conceptual Model
Primary Pressures (Land Use Practices)
Secondary Pressures (Consequences of Land Use
Practices)
Habitat Variables/ Ecological Processes
Covered Species Affected
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Valley Floor Grassland and Vernal Pool Community
Model
Fairy Shrimp Community Models
Mountain Plover
Plant/Insect Community Models
Burrowing Owl
CTS Model
Insect Community Models
Plant Community Models
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Multiple Community Assemblages Model
Multiple Natural Mommunity Assemblages
Model (Landscape Model)
Valley Floor Grassland and Vernal Pool
Community Model
Costal Marshes Model
Upland Community Model
Riparian and Freshwater Marshes Model
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Summary

• Conceptual models will help to..
• Summarize existing knowledge and hypotheses about
  the covered species and natural communities
• Identify and prioritize critical uncertainties
  that require further research and important
  components of the system to monitor
• Communicate understanding of the system
• Facilitate outside review of the conservation and
  management programs
• Complete the adaptive management loop