Albertas Landuses, Population, and Residential Patterns Challenges and Opportunities for Albertas Re

1
Albertas Landuses, Population, and Residential
PatternsChallenges andOpportunitiesfo
r AlbertasReal Estate Sector
2
A Generalized Alberta Real Estate Model
Number of Units Sold
Type of Units Sold What/Where
3
Albertas Approach to Landuse is about to Change

• The Old Way
• A Series of Independent Management Line
  Agencies
• Each with independent growth goals on a finite
  landscape
• Each landuse affecting the goals of the other
  landuses
• Each contributing to an ad hoc future
  landscape

Alberta Landuse Management Framework
The Way Forward (Alberta Landuse Management
Framework) An integrated approach by governments
and industry, explicitly recognizing the
importance of natural capital and the trade-offs
that occur between landuses is more likely to
ensure ecological integrity and economic
prosperity
4
Exploring Albertas Real Estate and Settlements
Sectors
5
A Century of Economic ProsperityA Time to
Reflect on Benefits and Challenges
6
Economic Indicators Alberta in comparison to
CanadaSource Statistics Canada and Alberta
Economic Development
7
Resource Production in Alberta (2004)

• Natural Resource Production
• Softwood 12.8 M m3
• Hardwood 9.3 M m3
• Natural Gas 228 B m3
• Conventional Oil 29 M m3
• Coal 31 M tonne
• Bitumen 98 M m3
• Gravel 87 M m3
• Crop 28 M tonne
• Cattle 6 M / 1.5
• Pigs 2 M / 3.5 M
• Electricity 12,400 MW

8
Human Populations and Settlements
9
Human Population and Settlements Source
Statistics Canada
1905
2005
1915
1995
1925
1985
1935
1975
1945
1965
1955
10
Albertas Historic Population Demographics
Source Statistics Canada
Rural Population
Urban Population
Farm Population
Acreage Population
11
Population Growth in the Edmonton Calgary
CorridorSource Statistics Canada and Miistakis
Institute
Edmonton
Red Deer
Calgary
12
Albertas Cities (gt10,000 inhabitants)Source
Statistics Canada

• Currently (2006)
• 16 Cities
• 11 Towns
• 100 Villages
• 51 Summer Villages

13
Population Change (1996-2001)Source
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada
14
Soil Group Map of AlbertaSource Alberta
Agriculture, Food, and Rural Development
15
Age Class Structure (1901 to 2001)Source
Statistics Canada
Baby boomers are now 35-60 years old Many are
dual-income families, affluent with few children
16
Where are we Going? Alberta Age Class
TransitionSource AHCIP Stakeholder Registry,
2004
17
Mean Age of AlbertansSource Alberta Health
Surveillance, 1998
18
Age-Adjusted Mortality Rate in AlbertaSource
Statistics Canada
19
Life Expectancy at birth in Alberta, 1931 to
2001Source Statistics Canada
20
of Children per Woman in AlbertaSource
Statistics Canada
The number of children per family has dropped
precipitously since 1960
21
Mean Age of Alberta Woman giving BirthSource
Alberta Vital Statistics Birth Files, 1986 - 2003
Woman are waiting longer to have children
22
Relative Abundance of Elders and ChildrenSource
Alberta Health Surveillance, 1998
23
Immigration to AlbertaSource Statistics Canada
Immigration is an important source of new
Albertans
24
Composition of Albertas Immigrant
PopulationSource Statistics Canada
25
Number of Annual Marriages is not
increasingSource Alberta Landuse Library
(www.abll.ca)
26
Divorce Rates in AlbertaSource Statistics Canada
27
Lone Parent Families in CanadaSource Canadian
council on Social Development Statistics Canada
28
Annual of Residential Building Starts in
AlbertaSource Statistics Canada 2007
29
Albertas Demographic Trends - next few decades!

• Albertans are living longer
• The population is aging
• Families are becoming smaller
• Woman are waiting longer to have children
• Single parent families and single adults are
  becoming more common (divorce is up marriage is
  down)
• Domestic fertility rate inadequate to satisfy
  super-heated economy ? immigration is therefore
  up new ethnic composition and social norms

30
Albertas Human PopulationGrowth Rates, 10.5,
21, 31.5
31
Alberta Population GrowthGrowth Rates, 10.5,
21, 31.5
32
Total Alberta ResidencesGrowth Rates, 10.5,
21, 31.5
33
Alberta Annual New Residences BuiltGrowth Rates,
10.5, 21, 31.5
34
Albertas Residential FootprintGrowth Rates,
10.5, 21, 31.5
35
Where will the Growing Human Population Reside?
Cities can grow out
Cities can grow up
36
Growth of Calgary Population (1982 to
2007)Source Calgary Herald
37
Historical Projected Growth of Calgary
PopulationSource Statistics Canada and ALCES
Simulations
38
Historical and Projected Growth of Calgary
(km2)Source Historic Aerial Photography and
ALCES Simulations
39
Calgarys Suburban Growth DependencySource
Calgary Herald
40
Sprawling Cities
41
Historic Trends of Calgary GrowthSource Aerial
Photography
10 mi 16 km
42
Historic and Future Simulated Growth of Calgary
(based on an annual area growth rate of 3)
MD RockyView
Historic
Kananaskis Border
Projected
43
Historic and Future Simulated Growth of Calgary
(based on an annual area growth rate of 4.5)
MD RockyView
Historic
Kananaskis Border
Projected
44
What if Edmonton were to grow at 3
annually?Source Based on ALCES simulations
Elk Island NP
St. Albert
Strathcona County
Edmonton
Blackfoot GR
Sh Pk
Devon
Beaumont
Leduc
45
Urban footprints in the Greater Edmonton
AreaSource University of Waterloo Map Library
Canada Land Use Monitoring Program computer
file. Ottawa, ON Ministry of Natural Resources,
1966-1986.
46
Historical Human Density Trend for
CalgarySource ALCES simulations

• Why?
• Smaller Families
• Divorce
• Suburban Sprawl

47
Family and Housing SizeSource Statistics Canada
and Alberta Home Mortgage Corporation
Average Family Size ()
Average House Size (ft2)
48
Average Home Area (ft2/Person) Source
Statistics Canada and Alberta Home Mortgage
Corporation
Average House Size (ft2) Per Person
49
Comparison of Human Density in Canadian
CitiesSource Alternative Journal, 24, 1 1998)
50
Its not just Calgary that is growing Rapidly The
Story of Satellite Commuting Towns
51
Cochrane PopulationSource Statistics Canada
52
Beiseker PopulationSource Statistics Canada
53
Airdrie PopulationSource Statistics Canada
54
Crossfield PopulationSource Statistics Canada
55
A Bow Wave of Acreage DevelopmentHigh Demand
---- Finite Supply of Land
56
Progressive Subdivision Trajectory
1 x 1 Mile
57
Example Section near Okotoks
58
Conflicts between Agriculturalists and expanding
human settlements
59
Incremental Loss of Traditional Ranching Lifestyle
60
Rural Residential Development in Southwest
AlbertaSource Miistakis Institute
61
Acreages trajectory with a 5 acre lot size
Source Maps prepared by Beth Dickson
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Acreages trajectory with a 1/2 acre lot size
Source Maps prepared by Beth Dickson
63
Recreational Appetite of the Young and Affluent
64
Wildland Tourism Recreation
65
Tourism requiring Anthropogenic Landscapes
66
The Agricultural Sector
67
Cropland MatrixSource Alberta Agriculture, Soil
Survey Reports, Dr. Jim Robertson, Barry Adams
lt1900
2005
1905
2000
1910
1915
1990
1920
1925
1980
Courtesy of Dave Sauchyn
1930
1970
1935
1940
1965
1945
1960
1950
1955
68
Cattle Population and FarmsSource Statistics
Canada
Cattle Population
Cattle Farms
Cattle Outnumber Humans by 21 Cattle Outweigh
Humans by 131 Cattle Out-Manure Humans by 311
69
The Forestry Sector
70
Timber Production and Area HarvestedSource
Alberta Sustainable Resource Development
Annual Wood Harvest Volume (m3)
Cumulative Wood Harvest Area (ha)
71
The Energy Sector
72
Energy Sector Royalties to AlbertaSource
Alberta Energy CAPP exclusive of land sales
73
Sedimentary Basins in Canada and Gas
PotentialSource Canadian Gas Potential Committee
74
Distribution of Hydrocarbon ReservesSource
Alberta Energy Utilities Board Alberta
Geological Survey
75
Natural Gas Conventional Oil Reserves in
AlbertaSource Canadian Association of Petroleum
Producers
76
Steam-assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD
Wells)Source Canadian Association of Petroleum
Producers
77
Natural Gas and Coalbed Methane DepositsSource
Alberta Energy and Utilities Board, Alberta
Geological Survey
78
Coalbed Methane WellsSource AccuMap and CAPP
1905
2005
1915
1995
1925
1985
1935
1975
1945
1965
1955
79
Change in Energy Sector Footprint (ha) Backcast
(1900 to 2000) and Forecast (2000 to 2100) for
Alberta
lt---Projected Simulation---gt 21st Century
lt---Historical Backcast---gt 20th Century
ha

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

80
The Transportation Sector
81
Road NetworkSource Alberta Transportation
1905
2005
1915
1995
1925
1985
1935
1975
1945
1965
1955
82
Transportation Length (km) Backcast (1900 to
2000) and Forecast (2000 to 2100) for Alberta
lt--Projected Simulation--gt 21st Century
lt---Historical Backcast---gt 20th Century
km

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

83
Annual Passenger Vehicle km TraveledSource
ALCES Simulations
km

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

84
Ave Annual Vehicle km Traveled Per CapitaSource
ALCES Simulations
km

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

85
Ave Daily Passenger Vehicle HoursSource ALCES
Simulations
Hours

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

86
Annual Passenger Vehicle C02 Emissions
tonnesSource ALCES Simulations
tonne

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

87
Water
88
Mean Annual Discharge from Albertas
RiversSource Alberta Environment
89
Emerging Water ShortagesSource Alberta
Environment
90
River Water Volume and Gross Water Demand
(m3) Backcast (1900 to 2000) and Forecast (2000
to 2100) for Alberta
m3
lt---Projected Simulation---gt 21st Century
lt---Historical Backcast---gt 20th Century

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

91
SASS River Water Volume and Gross Water Demand
(m3) Forecast (2000 to 2050) for Southern Alberta
Sustainability Strategy
20 Billion m3
Supply
10 Billion m3
Demand
0 Billion m3
Simulation Year into the Future
92
Gross Land Use Water ConsumptionSource ALCES
simulations

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

93
How much is 6 billion m3 of water
3 million Albertans 4 people per family would
be 750,000 families Each family living in a
2000 ft2 house 20,000 ft3 700 m3 6
Billion m3 of water represents a volume
equivalent to filling up each of the 750,000
homes 11.4 times each year
94
Why is Water Quality and Flow being Reduced
Increased Crossing Densities ? Lotic Access and
Fragmentation
Increased Nutrient Runoff from poor agricultural
practices and agricultural Intensification
Increased Sedimentation Rates
Increased Nutrient Runoff Associated with Acreage
Complexes
Stream Channelization
Increased Water Demand
Climate Change
95
Nitrogen, Phosphorus, and Sediment Runoff
(g/m3) Backcast (1900 to 2000) and Forecast (2000
to 2100) for Alberta
lt---Historical Backcast---gt 20th Century
g/m3
lt---Projected Simulation---gt 21st Century

• 1900 1950
  2000
  2050 2100
• Year

96
Bow Glacier Source Graeme Pole 2003
Bow Glacier in 1898
and in 2002
97
Summer Aridity Index(Precipitation/Potential
Evapotranspiration)Source D. Sauchyn et al.
1961 - 1990
2040 - 2069
98
Employment and Risk Capital
99
A History of Natural Resource Landuse Prevalence
1800
1850 1900
1950 2000
Year
100
Historical and Projected Employment in
Alberta(simulated in ALCES)
Full-time Direct Employees
1900 1950
2000
2050 2100
1900 1950
2000
2050 2100
101
Investment of Sectors in Alberta (1998
2007)Source Alberta Economic Development
In Millions of
102
Economic Growth and DiversitySource Alberta
Finance and Statistics Canada
103
Residential and Energy Sector Risk Capital
Source Alberta Economic Development
104
Albertas Risk Capital for Residential
ProjectsSource Alberta Economic Development
105
Environment Ranks 2nd Source Canada West
Foundation, 2004
106
Environment Ranks 1st (2007)Source Strategic
Counsel for CTV News and The Globe and Mail
107
An Unbalanced Approach to Assessing Economic
Performance Natural Capital has been
Externalized
108
Balancing the EquationInternalization of Natural
Capital into Decision Making
109
Wheres the Plan!!
498,000 Workers Building Alberta each day!!
110
Exploring Alternative Futures for Alberta
Define the House!!!!!
111
Strategic Planning is an ongoing ProcessThe
Public is Dynamic, not Static Defining the House
will never end!!!
Sustainability Pathway 4
Sustainability Pathway 3
Sustainability Pathway 2
Sustainability Pathway 1

• 2000 2025
  2050
  2075 2100
• Year

112
Blue Sky-ing a Priority Zoning Strategy in
Alberta
A Priority Land Use Zoning Concept for
Alberta Zone Priority Given to Purple Zone Human
Residency Blue Zone Water Protection, Fescue
Grasslands, Recreation Extensive Cow/Calf
Operations Black Zone Hydrocarbon
Extraction Yellow Zone Intensive Crop and
Livestock Production Red Zone Endangered
Species Green Zone Forest Production Orange
Zone Parks and Protection White Zone Multiple Use
Priority Zones are regions in Alberta where
there is an explicit recognition of the primary
purpose of the region and the intolerance of land
use practices that interfere with the attainment
of that primary purpose Some land use may be
highly complementary (i.e., cow/calf ranches,
fescue grassland, water protection), whereas
others are not (water protection and intensive
livestock operations)
113
Thinking Like a Systems Analyst
Assumption 1. In 50 Years, Albertas population
is 6 million and 20 are too old to drive 1.2
million non-drivers Assumption 2. 80 of elder
non-drivers live in Cities and 60 of these
currently reside in a suburban setting within the
city (576,000 non-driver elders in
suburbia) Assumption 3. Current approaches to
suburban form, if unchanged, do not permit elder
non-drivers to walk to desired amenities
(extended families, medical, library, stores,
food, church) The Result We have stranded
576,000 elders in an urban growth form that no
longer works!
114
Key Drivers for Albertas Real Estate Sector

• Energy Sector
• Demand for expanded Workforce Will drive all
  other sectors
• Anticipated 6-7 million 2055, 12-14 million by
  2105
• Immigration and Ethnic Composition
• Pacific Rim, Central and South America
• Family Metrics
• Smaller, Single Parent, Older
• Geographic Foci
• Edmonton to Calgary Corridors
• Commuting Towns proximal to large Metros
• Ft. McMurray, Grande Prairie
• East Slopes (recreational opportunities)

115
Landscape Constraint Drivers to Current Growth
Form

• Natural Capital Constraint (Land, Water, Carbon)
• Grow up versus Grow Out (densification applies to
  cities and acreages)
• Full Cost Accounting Constraint (cradle to grave)
• Sprawl and suburbia (including acreages) is an
  economic liability because of excessive
  maintenance costs of infrastructure
• Fuel Price Constraint
• Suburban growth form untenable to both builders
  and to residents
• Demographic Constraints
• Aging population, no longer driving, rejects the
  suburban model and require alternative community
  form and walk able lifestyle
• Lifestyle Constraints
• Emerging working age population places greater
  emphasis on quality of life and chooses to
  de-emphasize dependency on cars

116
Most Probable Trends in Energy Supply and
PriceImplications to Community Form and Building
Design
Future
117
The Alberta FocusSuburbia and Roads
118
Designing Sustainable Communities for Tomorrows
Constraints and Demands
119
Thanks for the opportunityto share some
thoughts!Brad StelfoxForem
Technologies Ltdwww.foremtech.com
120
Roundtable Questions for Participants

• What ideas stood out for you from the land use
  presentation? As a REALTOR, what do you think
  should be considered to more effectively
  integrate Albertas many land uses, including
  residential development?
• How do you think the real estate industry fits
  into the big picture of land use in Alberta? As
  REALTORS, how will this influence how you work
  with clients?
• How can the real estate industry be a more vocal
  stakeholder, vis-à-vis the issue of land use in
  Alberta? What actions could REALTORS take to
  effect positive change on land use in Alberta?