Importance of Meteorological Information in Locust Forecasting Models

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Importance of Meteorological Information in
Locust Forecasting Models
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
WMO, Geneva, October 18, 2004
G. Maracchi and L. Genesio IBIMET-CNR
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Biological cycle of desert locustSchistocerca
gregaria (Forskal).
hatching
Eggs
Hopper (5 juvenil stages)
Gregary egg laying 80 eggs
Solitary egg laying 90-150 eggs
migration
Solitary Adult
Gregary Adult
swarms
3 to 5 generations per year in Africa
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Recession
Plague

• In recession periods desert locusts concentrate
  in semi-arid and arid regions of Africa, near
  East and south-West Asia
• In plague periods they expand over enormous areas
  covering the 20 of the total surface of the world

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A biblical plague

• Pharaonic times plagues
• Plagues in Europe reported in 18th century
• Twenty century plagues 1926-1934 1940-1948
  1949-1963 1967-1969 1986-1989 2003-2004
• In 2004 around 4 million hectars have been
  infested in West Africa. The infestation extended
  from Sudan to Cape Vert. More severely affected
  countries Mauritania, Niger, Mali and Senegal.

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Migratory movements
Spring
Autumn
source FAO
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Importance of meteorological parameters in desert
locust cycle

• In the reproduction phase soil humidity for
  eggs opening
• In the juvenil phase (hopper) rainfall amounts
  favourable for vegetation growth accelerate
  instar development supporting large populations
  of young locusts
• In the migratory phase wind driven movements

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Rainfall amounts in the reproduction phase

• Are important for the hatching phase and for
  hopper development (vegetation growth)

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Early start of rainy season in the Sahel
Favourable conditions for eggs laying and hatcing
Data source Elaboration IBIMET-CNR
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Weather driven migration

• Desert locust fly with the winds over long
  distances
• 1954 North-Africa to British Islands
• 1988 West-Africa to the Caribbean (5000km)

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Small infestations in Mediterranean Europe were
reported in 2003 and 2004 summer associated with
favourable winds

• Skyways (Vertical Wind Anomaly)

2003
2004
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• Skyways in May 2004

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Climate sensitiveness of locust

• Climatic caracteristic of peak years
• Favourable winds direction and persistence
• High rainfall amounts at the beginning and at
  the end of the cropping season in Sub-saharian
  Africa (start and lenght of cropping season)
• High rainfall amounts in Spring in North Africa

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Climate sensitiveness of locust
The high inter annual variability in locust
infestation is mainly due to the high climate
sensitiveness of their reproduction and diffusion
phases
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Parameters for predictability in different
lifecycle phases

• Reproduction phase
• Soil humidity
• Vegetation development
• Lenght of the cropping season in the Sahel
• Migration phase
• Wind
• Vegetation

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Time scales and tools for prediction

• Short term forecasting
• Medium term predictions
• Long term predictions

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Short term monitoring
The continuous monitoring of rain and vegetation
conditions provide important information for
monitoring Desert Locust habitats and forecasting
locust development

• Monitoring of NDVI anomaly (NOAA, Spot
  Vegetation)
• Rainfall estimates (Meteosat)

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Seasonal vegetation development
Seasonal vegetation development in southern Mali
AP3A Project
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Short term monitoring

• NDVI anomaly over north-Africa and sahel in 2004

Source NASA
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Short term monitoring
HOWI zone 3 (Mauritania)
Humidity anomaly in the early season
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Short term monitoring
Rainfall estimates from satellite
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Short term monitoring
6 hours rainfall estimates from satellite
April 29, 2004, 06h00
April 29, 2004, 12h00
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Short term monitoring
Rainfall estimates from satellite
Animation sequence every six hours Oct 13-15, 2004
www.ibimet.cnr.it/Case/sahel/
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Short term monitoring
Rainfall estimates from NWM
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Rainfall estimates from NWM (96 hours forecasting)
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Medium term predictions
Crop season forecasting Risk Zones ZAR (AGRHYMET)
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Medium term predictions
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Medium term predictions
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Medium term predictions
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Long term prediction

• Seasonal forecasting
• SST
• Geopotential height
• ITCZ
• HOWI Hydrological Onset and Withdrawal Index
• Previous season late rains

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Sea Surface Temperature
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Geopotential Anomaly
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Hadley Cell
Mass streamfunction 1E10 kg/s (NCEP/NCAR
Reanalysis 1971-2002)
Hadley, Ferrel and polar cell
Changes of Hadley cells affect the descending
branch of ITCZ
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Seasonal migration of descending branches of
Hadley cell
Seasonal migration of ITCZ
ITCZ follows sun declination
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Objectives for a meteorological warning systems
for locust control (MeWaLCo)

• To optimize actions to fight infestations
• On time pesticide availability
• Avoiding of accumulation of potentially obsolete
  pesticide stocks
• Planning of Airplanes campains
• To provide information for the Food crisis
  prevention process
• To provide an assessment of potential impact on
  food security

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The food crisis prevention process
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The food crisis prevention process Regional
crisis
Crisis prevention
Crisis management
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Impact assessment
The impact of outbreaks must be evaluated in
function of the vulnerability context of the
affected territory
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Information flow for an information system for
locust control
Start of locust outbreaks
Choc
Agricultural campaign monitoring
Identification of vulnerable zones and
groups (regional/national/local)
Monitoring of impacts
Control actions
Production of scenarios
Production/diffusion of information
Decision making
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Availability operational tools

• Many decision support systems for food security
  already provides operational imputs that can be
  useful for locust monitoring
• The convergence of evidence methodology can be
  applied to locust early warning

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Climate changes and locust changes
NDVI trends 1982-2000 - first decade of May
Data NOAA-AVHRR elaboration IBIMET CNR
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Conclusions

• The Locust Control process needs operational
  tools over different periods of the year
• Early seasonal prediction
• Crop season monitoring (start and lenght)
• Rainfall estimation from satellite
• Rainfall estimation from NWM
• Biomasse estimation
• Impact matrix assessment
• All these tools are developed by IBIMET CNR in
  the framework of MeWaLCo Pilot Project