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Kudu, Namibia: 85-250 bcm (3315-9750 PJ) Pande, Mozambique: 40-80 bcm (1560-3120 PJ) ... Piping gas from Kudu to Cape Town would be expensive. Gas from Congo? ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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1
 Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from
energy supply in South Africa
  • Mark Howells
  • Energy Research Institute

2
Introduction
  • The ERI aims and direction
  • GHG Inventories the starting point
  • Baselines what the players see
  • Integrated Energy Modelling the big pic.
  • Mitigation how to reduce the emissions
  • Industrial projects Major players in SA
  • Towards CDM in SA

3
The Energy Research Institute Aims and
Direction
  • Education
  • Capacity building
  • Promote policy discussion NOT write it
  • Useful research,
  • Government
  • Industry

4
The Energy Research Institute GHG work
The Energy Research Institute GHG work
  • Inventories
  • Baselines
  • Mitigation
  • Country studies, UNFCC, IPCC, MScs PhDs
  • IEP
  • Case studies
  • Information
  • and CDM applications

5
Greenhouse Gas Inventories
  • Snapshot
  • Complete energy sector
  • 83-93 Inventory and 1990 94 for UNFCCC
  • Problems
  • Consumption data
  • IPCC data
  • NEEDS Urgent attention 20 Billion dollars.

6
Integrated Energy Modelling The big picture
  • Energy use GHG
  • Need the big picture
  • National economy for 1995-2025
  • No IEP problems!
  • LEAP 2000China etc.
  • MARKAL IEA
  • ERI is using both
  • What to do, how, where when

7
Baselines for the Energy Sector BUSINESS AS
USUAL
  • Modelled for 1995-2020
  • Stakeholder input
  • Business as usual
  • CDM funds
  • Mitigation options
  • Need Integrated Energy Planning tools

8
Mitigating GHG emissions from the energy supply
sector
  • Electricity
  • Liquid Fuels
  • Coal
  • Reducing demand

9
Mitigation Options Electricity
  • Clean Coal
  • Renewables
  • Wind and Solar
  • Imported hydro
  • Gas
  • Nuclear
  • PBMR
  • Conventional

10
South African Power Generation
  • SA will require new generation capacity by about
    2008 (assuming present modest increase in demand)
  • SA now generates the worlds cheapest electricity
  • The SA economy is energy intensive and depends on
    cheap energy (e.g. aluminium smelting)

11
South Africa Electricity Capacity
  • Operating Capacity, MWe (1999)
  • Total 43,142 (100)
  • Coal 38,287 (88.7)
  • Nuclear 1840 (4.3)
  • Storage 1580 (3.7)
  • Hydro 668 (1.5)
  • Gas 662 (1.5)
  • Bagasse 105 (0.2)

12
Coal Generation
  • Advantages
  • Reliable, with proven technology
  • Large reserves of coal in the world
  • Competive in price
  • Employment
  • Disadvantages
  • Carbon dioxide emissions
  • Coal is expensive to transport
  • Quite high capital costs
  • High loss of life from mining accidents

13
Future of Coal Generation
  • Supercritical already happening
  • IGCC likely but limited
  • Fluidised Bed limited
  • Combined Heat and Power (CHP) uncertain under
    deregulation
  • Currently most economic plan

14
Generation from Gas
  • Advantages
  • High thermal efficiency (CCGT)
  • Low capital costs
  • Quick construction time
  • Fairly clean
  • Disadvantages
  • Uncertainty about gas prices in future
  • Gas has other uses (e.g. production of liquid
    fuels)
  • Greenhouse emissions
  • Loss of currency

15
Future of Gas Generation
  • Seems likely to increase relative to other energy
    sources but there is much uncertainty over future
    gas prices

16
SA Future Generation Gas
  • Gasfields in SA neighbours are small
  • Mossgas 17 bcm (663 PJ)
  • CBM, Waterberg 90 bcm (3393 PJ)
  • Kudu, Namibia 85-250 bcm (3315-9750 PJ)
  • Pande, Mozambique 40-80 bcm (1560-3120 PJ)
  • (SAs total energy demand in 1995 4426 PJ)
  • Piping gas from Kudu to Cape Town would be
    expensive
  • Gas from Congo?
  • Better things to do with gas (feedstock for
    chemical liquid fuel production, heating,
    steelworks etc)
  • Limited potential for large scale electricity
    generation

17
Nuclear Power Generation
  • Advantages
  • Reliable safety record in the West
  • no greenhouse emissions in operation
  • Fuel can be cheaply transported (very small in
    mass)
  • Competive total costs
  • Disadvantages
  • High capital costs
  • Bad public perceptions (irrational fears about
    safety, radiation, weapons and waste)
  • Therefore political problems

18
Future of Nuclear Generation
  • Move to simpler designs with passive safety,
    offering lower capital costs, quicker
    construction and easier licensing.
  • Perhaps move to smaller units, offering more
    speed and flexibility in planning capacity.
  • Final waste disposal sites must be approved
  • In the long term breeder reactors, thorium fuel

19
Hydroelectricity
  • Advantages
  • Reliable, with proven technology
  • Economically competitive
  • Quite clean
  • Disadvantages
  • Dams are expensive, with long construction times
  • Environmental problems (silting, slaination,
    upsetting natural flows, displacing people,
    methane from rotting vegetation)
  • Difficult to find and approve new sites

20
Future of Hydroelectricity
  • It will be increasingly difficult to find and
    approve new sites in most of the world
  • But there is enormous potential in central Africa

21
Imported Hydroelectricity
  • Additional Hydro Potential in Central Africa
  • Zambezi 6000 MWe
  • Inga Falls (Congo) 50,000 100,000 MWe
  • Other 1200 Mwe
  • Inga could be run of river (no dam)
  • Huge potential but political problems and
    questions of security of supply

22
Wind and Solar Power
  • Advantages
  • Clean
  • No greenhouse emissions
  • Free energy
  • Disadvantages
  • Expensive electricity
  • Dilute, intermittent, unpredictable energy
  • Large land area required
  • Only certain sites are suitable
  • Environmental problems for wind (eyesore, kills
    birds)

23
Future Wind Solar Generation
  • Unlikely to provide more than a small fraction of
    total electricity
  • Growth of wind solar generation will depend on
    government policy and subsidies

24
SA Future Generation Wind
  • Suitable wind conditions near the coast
  • Eskom and perhaps Darling Wind Farm will be
    installing wind turbines
  • High cost
  • Large land use
  • Intermittent supply
  • Good for supply to small, remote communities
  • But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction
    of SAs electricity demand

25
SA Future Generation Solar
  • Very good solar conditions in Northern Cape (6
    kWh / m2 / 24 hours)
  • Could be solar thermal or photovoltaic
  • High costs
  • Intermittent energy, requiring storage
  • Large land usage
  • Good for supply to small, remote communities
  • But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction
    of SAs electricity demand

26
SA Energy Reserves (without Breeder
Reactors)(excluding renewable energy)
27
SA Reserves (with breeder reactors)(excluding
renewable energy)
28
Mitigation options Oil
  • Import finished product
  • Shift coal-oil to gas-oil
  • Improve storage of crude

29
Mitigation options Coal
  • More efficient mining
  • Combustion of methane
  • Extraction of methane
  • Prevention of spontaneous combustion

30
Mitigation options Reducing energy demand
  • Energy Efficiency in industry
  • Can create infrastructure
  • Best short term option
  • Industry understands market mechanisms

31
Current Industrial Projects
  • Applications for CDM
  • Link between GHGs and energy management
  • Extension of energy efficiency work

32
Towards an enabling environmentw.r.t. energy
management
  • Case studies
  • Industry buy-in
  • Linkages with national energy efficiency programs
  • Assessment of industrial potential
  • Industrial Energy Efficiency Association

33
In conclusionSome warnings
  • CDM may be used to subsidise Annex 1 economies
  • Trade implications
  • SA could be left behind with respect to CDM funds
  • Much current data is very questionable
  • Fuel costs, such as gas prices must be viewed
    with caution.
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