Title:
1 Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from
energy supply in South Africa
- Mark Howells
- Energy Research Institute
2Introduction
- The ERI aims and direction
- GHG Inventories the starting point
- Baselines what the players see
- Integrated Energy Modelling the big pic.
- Mitigation how to reduce the emissions
- Industrial projects Major players in SA
- Towards CDM in SA
3The Energy Research Institute Aims and
Direction
- Education
- Capacity building
- Promote policy discussion NOT write it
- Useful research,
- Government
- Industry
4The Energy Research Institute GHG work
The Energy Research Institute GHG work
- Inventories
- Baselines
- Mitigation
- Country studies, UNFCC, IPCC, MScs PhDs
- IEP
- Case studies
- Information
- and CDM applications
5Greenhouse Gas Inventories
- Snapshot
- Complete energy sector
- 83-93 Inventory and 1990 94 for UNFCCC
- Problems
- Consumption data
- IPCC data
- NEEDS Urgent attention 20 Billion dollars.
6Integrated Energy Modelling The big picture
- Energy use GHG
- Need the big picture
- National economy for 1995-2025
- No IEP problems!
- LEAP 2000China etc.
- MARKAL IEA
- ERI is using both
- What to do, how, where when
7Baselines for the Energy Sector BUSINESS AS
USUAL
- Modelled for 1995-2020
- Stakeholder input
- Business as usual
- CDM funds
- Mitigation options
- Need Integrated Energy Planning tools
8Mitigating GHG emissions from the energy supply
sector
- Electricity
- Liquid Fuels
- Coal
- Reducing demand
9Mitigation Options Electricity
- Clean Coal
- Renewables
- Wind and Solar
- Imported hydro
- Gas
- Nuclear
- PBMR
- Conventional
10South African Power Generation
- SA will require new generation capacity by about
2008 (assuming present modest increase in demand) - SA now generates the worlds cheapest electricity
- The SA economy is energy intensive and depends on
cheap energy (e.g. aluminium smelting)
11South Africa Electricity Capacity
- Operating Capacity, MWe (1999)
- Total 43,142 (100)
- Coal 38,287 (88.7)
- Nuclear 1840 (4.3)
- Storage 1580 (3.7)
- Hydro 668 (1.5)
- Gas 662 (1.5)
- Bagasse 105 (0.2)
12Coal Generation
- Advantages
- Reliable, with proven technology
- Large reserves of coal in the world
- Competive in price
- Employment
- Disadvantages
- Carbon dioxide emissions
- Coal is expensive to transport
- Quite high capital costs
- High loss of life from mining accidents
13Future of Coal Generation
- Supercritical already happening
- IGCC likely but limited
- Fluidised Bed limited
- Combined Heat and Power (CHP) uncertain under
deregulation - Currently most economic plan
14Generation from Gas
- Advantages
- High thermal efficiency (CCGT)
- Low capital costs
- Quick construction time
- Fairly clean
- Disadvantages
- Uncertainty about gas prices in future
- Gas has other uses (e.g. production of liquid
fuels) - Greenhouse emissions
- Loss of currency
15Future of Gas Generation
- Seems likely to increase relative to other energy
sources but there is much uncertainty over future
gas prices
16SA Future Generation Gas
- Gasfields in SA neighbours are small
- Mossgas 17 bcm (663 PJ)
- CBM, Waterberg 90 bcm (3393 PJ)
- Kudu, Namibia 85-250 bcm (3315-9750 PJ)
- Pande, Mozambique 40-80 bcm (1560-3120 PJ)
- (SAs total energy demand in 1995 4426 PJ)
- Piping gas from Kudu to Cape Town would be
expensive - Gas from Congo?
- Better things to do with gas (feedstock for
chemical liquid fuel production, heating,
steelworks etc) - Limited potential for large scale electricity
generation
17Nuclear Power Generation
- Advantages
- Reliable safety record in the West
- no greenhouse emissions in operation
- Fuel can be cheaply transported (very small in
mass) - Competive total costs
- Disadvantages
- High capital costs
- Bad public perceptions (irrational fears about
safety, radiation, weapons and waste) - Therefore political problems
18Future of Nuclear Generation
- Move to simpler designs with passive safety,
offering lower capital costs, quicker
construction and easier licensing. - Perhaps move to smaller units, offering more
speed and flexibility in planning capacity. - Final waste disposal sites must be approved
- In the long term breeder reactors, thorium fuel
19Hydroelectricity
- Advantages
- Reliable, with proven technology
- Economically competitive
- Quite clean
- Disadvantages
- Dams are expensive, with long construction times
- Environmental problems (silting, slaination,
upsetting natural flows, displacing people,
methane from rotting vegetation) - Difficult to find and approve new sites
20Future of Hydroelectricity
- It will be increasingly difficult to find and
approve new sites in most of the world - But there is enormous potential in central Africa
21Imported Hydroelectricity
- Additional Hydro Potential in Central Africa
- Zambezi 6000 MWe
- Inga Falls (Congo) 50,000 100,000 MWe
- Other 1200 Mwe
- Inga could be run of river (no dam)
- Huge potential but political problems and
questions of security of supply
22Wind and Solar Power
- Advantages
- Clean
- No greenhouse emissions
- Free energy
- Disadvantages
- Expensive electricity
- Dilute, intermittent, unpredictable energy
- Large land area required
- Only certain sites are suitable
- Environmental problems for wind (eyesore, kills
birds)
23Future Wind Solar Generation
- Unlikely to provide more than a small fraction of
total electricity - Growth of wind solar generation will depend on
government policy and subsidies
24SA Future Generation Wind
- Suitable wind conditions near the coast
- Eskom and perhaps Darling Wind Farm will be
installing wind turbines - High cost
- Large land use
- Intermittent supply
- Good for supply to small, remote communities
- But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction
of SAs electricity demand
25SA Future Generation Solar
- Very good solar conditions in Northern Cape (6
kWh / m2 / 24 hours) - Could be solar thermal or photovoltaic
- High costs
- Intermittent energy, requiring storage
- Large land usage
- Good for supply to small, remote communities
- But unlikely to supply more than a small fraction
of SAs electricity demand
26SA Energy Reserves (without Breeder
Reactors)(excluding renewable energy)
27SA Reserves (with breeder reactors)(excluding
renewable energy)
28Mitigation options Oil
- Import finished product
- Shift coal-oil to gas-oil
- Improve storage of crude
29Mitigation options Coal
- More efficient mining
- Combustion of methane
- Extraction of methane
- Prevention of spontaneous combustion
30Mitigation options Reducing energy demand
- Energy Efficiency in industry
- Can create infrastructure
- Best short term option
- Industry understands market mechanisms
31Current Industrial Projects
- Applications for CDM
- Link between GHGs and energy management
- Extension of energy efficiency work
32Towards an enabling environmentw.r.t. energy
management
- Case studies
- Industry buy-in
- Linkages with national energy efficiency programs
- Assessment of industrial potential
- Industrial Energy Efficiency Association
33In conclusionSome warnings
- CDM may be used to subsidise Annex 1 economies
- Trade implications
- SA could be left behind with respect to CDM funds
- Much current data is very questionable
- Fuel costs, such as gas prices must be viewed
with caution.