The New Ocean Management Paradigm Lessons from the Scotian Shelf

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The NewOcean ManagementParadigmLessons from
the Scotian Shelf

• Bob OBoyle
• Bedford Institute of Oceanography
• Canada

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20th Century Ocean Management Paradigm

• Sector by sector approach
• Objectives related to a sectors impact
  requirements
• Management by sector with little consideration of
  cross sector impacts

Sector Fisheries, oil gas, recreation, etc
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Consensus for New Approach

• Ecosystems are 'complex systems' that require new
  way of doing business
• Ecosystem responses cannot be predicted by
  understanding individual mechanics of component
  parts
• Need to manage for objectives related to multiple
  ecosystem services
• Sustainable fisheries, clean water, recreation,
  etc

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We are in midst of paradigm shift in ocean
management Early in process but outline is
emerging
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New Ocean Management Paradigm

• Ecosystem approach to management (EAM) or
  Ecosystem Based Management
• Ecologically - based principles
• Cumulative long-term impacts
• Cross sector management
• Management strategy evaluation (MSE)
• Comparative performance of candidate management
  strategies
• Consideration of uncertainty in each element of
  management system

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Management Strategy Evaluation
Control Module
Operational Module
Monitoring
Assessment
Ecosystem
Control Rules
Decision Making
Implementation
Management Strategy Assessment, control rules
implementation
From McAllister et. al. 1999
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Objectives for delivery of ecosystem services
essential to new paradigm
How to identify in face of conflicting priorities
EAM
Ecosystem Objectives
How to achieve with state of current knowledge
MSE
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Types of Ecosystem Objectives

• Conceptual (policy level)
• Understandable to broad audience
• E.g. Restore Coral Community Biodiversity to
  pre-1980 levels
• Operational (regulatory level)
• Links conceptual objective management action
• E.g. Limit Area (sq Km) disturbed of Coral
  Community to 5000 sq km

Reference Point
Indicator
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Ecosystem Objectives Hierarchy
Overarching Conceptual Objectives
Link to Treaties, Acts, Legislation Policy
Regional Operational Objectives
Regional Conceptual Objectives
Monitor Ecosystem States Control Cumulative
Impacts
Link to Overarching COs Regional Priorities
E.g. Gulf of Maine
Sector Operational Objectives
Control Sector Impacts
E.g. Fishery
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Scotian Shelf Overarching Objectives

• Conserve biodiversity
• Conserve community diversity
• Recover species at risk of extinction
• Conserve subpopulation genetic structure
• Maintain productivity
• Maintain linkages along food chain (e.g.
  predators prey)
• conserve ecosystem components at each level of
  food chain
• Conserve habitat
• Conserve physical chemical properties

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Lessons learnedOverarching Objectives

• Hierarchical structure to objectives useful
• Transparent translation of general intent of
  management to sector management actions
• Coordinates management of cumulative impacts as
  long as same objectives used throughout hierarchy
• Dont fret about objectives structure itself
• Different ways to package same concepts as long
  as ecosystem structure function addressed

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Issue for conference What are overarching
objectives for Gulf of Maine?
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Regional ObjectivesEcosystem Characterization

• Ecosystem description
• Key components
• Key linkages

Useful to synthesize in model
Scotian Shelf changes during 1980s 1990s modeled
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Regional ObjectivesThreats Analysis
Issue for conference What are sectors their
impacts in Gulf of Maine?
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Regional ObjectivesScotian Shelf

• Initial set of objectives developed through
  bottom up stakeholder engagement process
• DFO Science undertaking top down process
  independent of stakeholder process
• Intent is to adjust initial set based upon
  highest priorities for conservation (ecological
  biological significant areas species)

Issue still to be addressed is how to marry two
sets of priorities
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Lessons LearnedRegional objectives

• Develop conceptual model of ecosystem
• Statement of current knowledge
• Develop scenarios of potential future states
• Focus on key components thresholds to watch for
• Engage stakeholders in direction of management
• Risk analysis to identify ecosystem components to
  protect
• Develop indicators, reference points management
  actions for high risk impacts

From Link et. Al., 2002
RISK impact probability of not achieving
objective
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Issues for conference What are priority
conservation issues for Gulf of Maine? What is
role of science stakeholders in setting
conservation priorities for Gulf of Maine?
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Sector Implementation

• Regional objectives being incorporated into 40
  Scotian Shelf fishery management plans
• Identifies what issues are being addressed
• Identifies gaps that need attention

Georges Bank
Addressed
Action Needed
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Lessons LearnedSector Implementation

• Incorporate regional objectives into existing
  sector management planning activities
• Identify gaps address
• Undertake Management Strategy Evaluation to
  determine most robust means for each sector to
  achieve objectives

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Governance
Decision-makers
Fisheries
Oil Gas
Stakeholder advisory group
Science
Transport
NGOs
Public
Forum for broad-based engagement
Issue How much consensus?
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Lessons LearnedGovernance

• Stakeholders
• Broad-based to represent diversity
• Focus to facilitate objective setting scenario
  development
• Regulators
• Implementation of new paradigm requires
  regulators to be on side cultural shift
• Build governance structures on what exists
• Illustrate how existing activities fit into new
  paradigm

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Lessons Learned (cont'd)Governance

• Science
• Use objectives to define key science priorities
  link funding to management deliverables
• Design science programs for new paradigm may
  involve new institutions

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Issue for conference What is an effective
governance structure for the Gulf of Maine?
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What Science is needed?

• Ecosystems are complex systems
• Unpredictable future states
• Develop scenarios of potential future states
• Ecosystem modeling to identify
• key ecosystem components thresholds that cause
  changes in state
• Important system feedbacks
• Linkages between scales
• Phase of adaptive cycle

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Ecosystem Models
Synthesis of current understanding

• PLAUSIBLE hypotheses of ecosystem functioning to
  explore importance of
• Diversity of communities
• Functional groups redundancies within
  communities
• Linkages amongst communities

Community A
Community D
Community B
Community D
Simulate plausible ecosystem states how system
might change between these Adaptive Cycle
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Current knowledge will go only so far Need new
theory understanding
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Biodiversity

• Community structure dynamics
• How many communities are there, are they stable
  over time, is their spatial distribution
  predictable, how do they react to ocean climate?
• Genetic processes
• What is impact of human activities on genetic
  selection? E.g. fishing on gadoid growth in
  Northwest Atlantic

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What are relative roles of environment
genetic selection on haddock growth?
Observed in other species e.g. cod
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Productivity Food Chain
Eastern Scotian Shelf

• Are food chains controlled top-down (by
  predators) or bottom-up (by food supply?)
• Evidence to suggest that overfishing could flip
  ecosystem from bottom-up to top-down
• Need quantitative understanding of relationships
  amongst exploitation, biodiversity ocean climate

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Productivity Reference Points

• What are consequences for reference points of
  long-term ecosystem changes?
• What should current reference points be? e.g.
  Eastern Scotian Shelf cod

Carrying Capacity
Rosenberg et. al, 2005
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Spatial processes (small to large)

• Habitat - productivity linkage
• How are these linked? What is distribution of
  habitats of differing sensitivities? Why are they
  different how do they respond to impact?
• Climate change
• Promises to be most significant future impact on
  our ecosystems
• Need to understand linkage between Shelf
  oceanography broader climatology e.g. Influence
  of North Atlantic Oscillation on Gulf of Maine

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NAO Winter Anomaly
1970 - 2003 bottom C0 differences (neg - pos
anomaly)

• Linkage of Scotian Shelf / Gulf of Maine with
  North Atlantic atmospheric system
• Different response to NAO north south of Halifax

Periodic? Predictable?
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Issue for conference What are scienceneeds of
new paradigm for Gulf of Maine?
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Summary

• In midst of ocean management paradigm shift
• Will take time effort to change
• need to stay the course
• Challenges but opportunities too

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Thank You!
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When NAO Positive Tendency for Northern
Transition Zone to move South Southern
Transition Zones to move North
Are these patterns Predictable? How stable are
these communities?
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Community Structure Dynamics
Identified transitions in bottom communities
consistent with circulation mixing
patterns Movement in transition zones in
response to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)
From Mahon et. al. 1998
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• Species Richness implicated (Frank et. al., 2007)

• Overfishing
• Reduces species richness
• May cause flip from bottom up to top down
  control

Need to develop quantitative understanding of
relationships amongst exploitation species
richness ocean climate
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Spatial ProcessesShelf Scale
Natural bottom disturbance, productivity bottom
community distribution