Community Cooperation or Community Collapse: The Reality of 21st Century Canada April 5, 2006 Challe

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Community Cooperation or Community Collapse The
Reality of 21st Century CanadaApril 5,
2006Challenge North ConferenceHigh Level,
Alberta

• Mark Partridge
• Canada Research Chair in the New Rural Economy
• University of Saskatchewan

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Outline Why am I here?

• Alberta in North America
• Alberta Advantage Not Oil, something else
• Current strengths
• Future challenges Natural resource booms end!
• Alberta-Northern Alberta
• Rural-Urban interdependence
• Need for a New Rural Paradigm.
• Successful cooperation builds strength
• Building our communities for tomorrow

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Alberta is in North America

• Success is long-run population growth
• Combines good economy quality of life
• People vote with their feet
• Not subjective (not Govt budget surplus)
• Looking E-W across Canada is simplistic
• Globe and Mail view of Alberta is plain lucky!
• Look North-South to see real patterns
• Regions cross international borders
• Great Plains population loss
• Alberta and BC are in the Rocky Mtn West

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1990s North American Population Growth
Source Canada Rural Economy Research Lab, 1991
2001 Census Statistics Canada 1990 2000
Census U.S. Census Bureau. Notes The map shows
1990-2000 percent population change for US
counties using the U.S. Census of Population. The
1991-2001 percent population change for Canadian
census divisions use Statistics Canada data and
are based on 1996 consistent boundaries.
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• Canadas Unique pattern
• Cities are Canadas engine of growth
• Canadas Rural development
• Critical mass
• Threshold effects
• Growth poles
• For N. Alberta, this is a challenge and why
  communities need to work together.

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Alberta is booming

• Good times blur long-term challenges
• Natural Resources Curse
• Corruption, Bad Institutions, Bad Planning, Dutch
  Disease (ask Alberta manufactures)
• Natural resource economies fare poorly in the
  long-term.
• Nigeria, Venezuela are not growth examples
• Hurricane Katrina revealed Louisiana's poverty
• BC doing as well as AB despite little energy

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• Alberta pop. grew faster in the late 1990s when
  energy prices were lower.
• Rural Canada avg every 1 greater 1991 Other
  Primary Emp share implied -0.35 less population
  growth in 1990s
• Source Statistics Canada Partridge, M.D. R.
  Bollman M.R. Olfert and A. Alasia. 2005.
  Riding the Wave of Urban Growth in the
  Countryside Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation.
  University of Saskatchewan, Canada Rural Economy
  Research Lab Working Paper. Available at
  www.crerl.usask.ca.

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1981-2003 Total Job Growth and Share of total
employment in Mining 1981
Natural Resources do not mean growth
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis,
http//.bea.doc.gov/bea/regional/spi/default.cfm
Retrieved on February 21, 2005
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1981-2003 Total Job Growth and Share of 1981
Employment in Other Primary Industries
Natural Resources do not mean growth
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WYs greater natural resource intensity did not
produce faster growth
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What causes the Alberta Advantage?

• Good business climate entrepreneur spirit
• Having two dynamic large cities
• Calgary and Edmonton
• Wonderful western amenities
• Strong human capital/education base.
• I think the 1st two are more important
• (Note Northern Alberta is different, but it is lt
  1/10th of provinces population)

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Lessons!

• Alberta is doing something right!
• Alberta is not lucky. Booms at all times.
• Globe and Mail needs an economics lesson
• Instead of Alberta Envy the rest of Canada
  needs some Alberta Emulation
• Oh yeah, the Confederation is not going to fall
  apart due to Alberta prosperity
• i.e., every doc is not going to move to Alberta
• Another Albertan job does not steal other jobs

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But, I am not here to pander

• Commodity prices are cyclical.
• What goes up, must come down.
• I remember the 1980s crash living in Wyoming
• The current energy boom will end too.
• We must plan for the bust today when we have the
  resources.
• Hardest to plan when times are sooo good.

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What is Northern Alberta?

• Not just a latitude i.e. North of 55N, but also
  attitude
• Natural resourcesoil sands
• Forestry, mining, farming
• Wide open spaces (lack of large cities)
• Large First Nation/Aboriginal population
• Many opportunities to build on
• Consulting
• Tourism
• Unique quality of life

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2001 Population Density per km2
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1996-2001 Population Change
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N. Alberta 1996-2001 Pop. Change
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1996-2001 Sask Population Change
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1996 Agriculture Employment Share
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Sask. 1996 Agriculture Employment Share
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1996 Employment Share in Other Primary
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1996 Employment Share in Other Primary
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What have we learned?

• Northern Albertas population is growing.
• Something is going right, even with low commodity
  prices over 96-01 period.
• Northern Alberta is reliant on natural resources
• Didnt Mark say that was bad
• In the next decade, Northern Albertan communities
  should diversify.
• If not, the next crash will be really hard!

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Opportunities

• First Nation/Aboriginals
• Education and unique mgmt experience
• Northern Alberta is fortunate to be tied to the
  broader Alberta Advantage.
• Flexible
• Pro-growth
• Pragmatic
• High amenities

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Pop Share with University Degree Age 15 over
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Pop with Aborig. Ethnicity
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Opportunities to meet future needs

• Todays natural resource boom means finances are
  there.
• Enhance quality of life
• Retain current population after boom. (not like
  WY)
• Attract new/different population.
• Shift front-office work north from Calgary
• Unique natural resource human capital
• Become mgmt consultants for the worlds oil sands
• Diversify to other mgmt consulting
• Cant be engineers living/working out of trailers

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More strategic opportunities

• Northern tourism is still mostly untapped
• This region is a unique jewel
• Opportunities to mkt to Americans
• Better integration of First Nations into regional
  developmentwin-win strategy.
• Weakness of mine or any Northern plan
• Not enough regional cooperation, weak critical
  population mass.
• Cities are Canadas engines of growth

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Communities must band together

• Canadian population growth takes place near urban
  areas of at least 10,000 people
• Regions can band together to achieve critical
  mass.
• community clusters striving to attain critical
  mass
• Community clusters likely need gt 10,000 people
• Most growth is in the 100km circles around urban
  centres.

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1996-2001 Population Growth and Urban Centres in
the Prairie Provinces
Yellow highlighted areas are census agglomeration
areas (10,000) or census metropolitan areas
(100,000).
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How can we cooperate?

• This can be formal consolidation of govts
• Need a consensus
• Must reflect broad regional needs
• Transportation of people/access to urban
  services--not just resources
• Environment/Land use
• Economic development
• Education/health
• Quality of life initiatives
• Increased political clout for common interests
• Alberta does this better! Sask has a major
  problem, too many communities would rather die
  than cooperate.

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• Overlay regional govt on top of municipalities
• Economic Development Authorities
• Transportationcritical to support the energy
  economy and to begin to build community clusters
• Nongovernment approaches
• Larger organizations such as Chambers of
  Commerce, volunteer organizations
• Need to build regional identity
• Despite the interdependence of communities, too
  many towns think as if they are an island.

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Northern Alberta Communities

• There are only 3 Northern growth poles
• If broad regional mentality does not sink in, the
  next commodity crash will be painful.
• i.e., inadequate institutions to address the
  economic downfall and fiscal shortfall.

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Examples

• Alberta does regionalism better
• Ft. McMurray/Wood Buffalo is a great example of
  creating a region that pulls in all parties.
• In Sask., on the informal level, Action Southwest
  is a proactive group that has banded together a
  LARGE number of communities.
• Greater Calgary is trying to informally cooperate

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• Greater Gander and N.E. Newfoundland
• Outlook, Sask is a great example of 1st Nation
  opportunities being integrated into regional
  plan.
• One hour south of Saskatoon, they see Saskatoon
  as an opportunity
• Humboldt, Sask is an example of successfully
  implementing leadership training.
• Must be informed action based on actual trends
  of Canadian urbanization.
• Dont pick examples based on media stories
• Ibbitson 2005 columns in Globe and Mail
• Davidson, SK is dying and lacks leadership
• Neighbouring Craik has visionary leaders and is
  thriving.
• But, the facts are that Davidson is actually
  doing better in population growth (1991-2001).

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Northern Alberta Growth Poles

• Northern Alberta has 3 natural growth pole
  regions and 1 transportation corridor
• Fort McMurray/Wood Buffalo
• Cold Lake-Athabasca linking to Edmonton
• Grande Prairie-High Prairie-Peace River
• High Level N-S/E-W transportation corridor
• Needs linkage to Northern BC

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Conclusions

• Alberta Advantage is not luck
• Dont lose sight of that and fritter away this
  opportunity
• Natural resource economies do not fare well in
  the long-run.
• Alberta and Northern Alberta must use their
  wealth to build a different/diverse economy

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• Enhanced quality of life linked with
  opportunities to integrate First Nations and
  upgrade oil sands expertise presents
  opportunities
• This retains the high-educated workforce that has
  migrated to Northern Alberta.
• Cities are Canadas long-run engines of growth
  and innovation
• Northern Alberta communities must cooperate to
  build critical mass for economic, social and
  political power
• Transportation linkages for access to services
  and markets need to be enhanced.
• Remoteness is an impediment for N. Alberta

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• Lesson
• Northern Alberta is growing and bustling
• But, needs to realign itself for the future
• That is why this conference can lay this ground
  work.

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Thank you

• Presentation will be posted at
• Canada Rural Economy Research Lab (U of S)
• C-RERL www.crerl.usask.ca
• Under presentations sidebar