Community Cooperation or Community Collapse: The Reality of 21st Century Canada

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Mapping the Rural-Urban Interface A New
Frontier in Rural-Urban Research Presented at
the Annual ConferenceNational Rural Research
Network Canada Rural Revitalization Foundation
Creating Rural Opportunities Through
Research Gatineau, Québec October 26, 2006
Mark Partridge Swank Professor in Rural-Urban
Policy Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy The
Ohio State University Rose Olfert University of
Saskatchewan
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Outline Why are we here?

• Rural Canada Mythsthe 1950s Rural Canada does
  not reflect the diversity of Rural Canada
• Government policies are based on the myth
• Rural-Urban interdependence
• Should rural communities compete or cooperate?
• Should Lanark Highlands or Papineau compete with
  Ottawa?
• Who will win that one?
• Successful cooperation builds strength
• Leverage growth for entire regions
• Build supporting institutions
• Research questions to be answered
• This part of the presentation is called Rose
  saves the day

Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy
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Rural Myths Back to the FutureThe 1950s Rural
Economy

• The myth of rural Canada is that it is solely a
  natural resource based economy
• Pick up the Toronto Star or Globe and Mail and
  this will likely be the story
• Federal and provincial policy is aimed at making
  this imaginary place healthy with imperfect
  policies mostly aimed at supporting resource
  based sectors
• Though resources still dominate some areas, most
  of Rural Canada has diversified

Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy
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Even Agri-food sector small

• Primary agriculture (plus services incidental)
  accounts for about 6 of employment in
  predominantly rural regions
• Processing, input supply, grain storage is
  another 1.5 for a total of 7.5
• Source Statistics Canada, Ray Bollman

Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy
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Farm HHs rely on other sources

• 1.6 of Canadas rural population lives on a
  Census farm gt 250,000 gross sales
• source Statistics Canada, Ray Bollman
• Farm family households (farm operating revenues
  gt10,000) earn ¾ of their income off-farm, 2000
• Source Statistics Canadacat. No. 21-019-XIE
• Even among farm households where farm income was
  the major source of income, only about 1/2 of
  income was from farm sources
• Source Canada Customs and Revenue Agency, Income
  Statistics, Annual, Ray Bollman, Statistics
  Canada.

Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy
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For those who like statistics

• Industry structure matters
• Rural Canada avg Every additional 1 share of
  Other Primary Emp. in 1991 was associated with
  0.35 LESS population growth in 1990s
• Source Statistics Canada Partridge, M.D.
  R. Bollman M.R. Olfert and A. Alasia. 2005.
  Riding the Wave of Urban Growth in the
  Countryside Spread, Backwash, or Stagnation.
  University of Saskatchewan, Canada Rural Economy
  Research Lab Working Paper. Available at
  www.crerl.usask.ca. forthcoming Land Economics

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Lessons!

• The 1950s Rural Canada no longer exists
• Farm/food policy is sub-optimal when linked to
  rural revitalization
• Agriculture policy should focus on food supply
  and safety
• Agriculture is too important for Canadas
  international competitiveness to be diverted to
  local econ dev
• Agricultures urban influence is under-rated
• Rural revitalization is far more complex than
  farm policy
• Need to de-couple rural and farm/food policy!

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Measuring Success in Rural Canada

• Success is long-run population growth
• Combines good economy quality of life
• People vote with their feet
• Not subjective (not Government budget surplus)
• Looking E-W across Canada is simplistic
• Look North-South to see real patterns
• Great Plains population loss
• Alberta and BC are in the Rocky Mountain West

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Basic Patterns

• Canadas unique pattern
• Cities are Canadas engine of growth
• Not as true in the U.S.
• Canadas rural development
• Critical mass threshold effects
• Growth poles
• Not everyone in small communities/neighbourhoods
  commute in their growth cluster, enough to
  stabilize their population and build critical
  mass
• This Canadian pattern underlies why rural
  communities should work together

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Communities should band together

• Large cities have the most growth spillovers
• Metro areas gt500,000 population
• Canadas pop. growth also is centered near urban
  areas of at least 10,000 people (CAs)
• Evidence growth does not end at city border!
• Growth spreads out for hundreds of kms, though
  the growth effects attenuate with distance
• Both rural and urban participate in growth
• Best hope for much of rural Canada

Swank Program in Rural-Urban Policy
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Eastern Canadas Engines of Growth
An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan
area with at least 500,000 population. Halifax is
one contender Engine of Growth.
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Western Canadas Engines of Growth
An Engine of Growth is defined as a metropolitan
area with at least 500,000 population. Saskatoon
is one contender Engine of Growth.
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1996-2001 Population Growth and Urban Centres in
the Prairie Provinces
Yellow highlighted areas are census agglomeration
areas (10,000) or census metropolitan areas
(100,000).
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Population Growth in Atlantic Canada
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Population Growth in Central Canada
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Population Growth in the West
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Moral

• Rural communities can link to attain critical
  mass
• Rural growth clusters that attain critical mass
  for econ development and govt services
• Lesson not just money, but planning and
  community collaboration is the key feature
• Rose Olfert will provide better evidence of
  rural-urban interdependence

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How can we cooperate?

• This can be a formal consolidation of govts
• Need a consensus! But from 2006 AUMA comments,
• Borders can exclude people or include people
• Why rely on borders drawn for the needs of the
  early 20th Century
• Should reflect broad regional needs of
  neighbours
• Transport people/access to urban services and
  amenities
• Environment/Land use
• Economic development
• Education/health
• Quality of life initiatives
• Increased political clout for common interests

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• Need to build regional identity
• Despite the interdependence of communities, too
  many towns think as if they are an island
• Nongovernmental approaches
• Chambers of Commerce, service organizations
• Overlay regional govt on top of municipalities
• Regional economic development authorities
• Transportationcritical to build regional clusters

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Avoid Bad Planning

• Regional transport good, but avoid U.S. roads at
  all costs
• Avoid sprawl and donut development
• Example Columbus, OH (like many U.S. cities)
• Weak cooperation and planning led to unintended
  consequences even with great roads

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Employment and IncomePre-1964 Outerbelt
ConstructionColumbus, OH
Jobs by Traffic Analysis Zone
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Employment and Income2000 Outerbelt
ConstructionColumbus, OH
Jobs by Traffic Analysis Zone
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Communities/Regions need tools

• Provinces should devolve some authority
• Greater ability to zone near their boundary
• More tax tools including at the regional level
• Examples
• Regional fuel/use taxes for transportation
• Sales taxes (say 1 regional levy)

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Examples of Cooperation

• Ft. McMurray/Wood Buffalo
• N. Alberta and N. Sask for Labour force
• Outlook, SK is a good example of 1st Nations
  participating in a regional plan
• 1 hour away, Saskatoon reflects an opportunity
• Gander, NFLD and surrounding villages

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• NW Ohio 3 counties recently supported Van Wert
  Countys effort to land a Honda plant
• The Darby River Accord brought together 10 OH
  municipalities to protect an environmental
  treasure

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Alberta Example of Growth Poles

• Calgary and Edmonton lift the entire province
• Not just the large cities, all of Alberta
• Not Zero Sum!
• An urban area as small as 10-15,000 can serve as
  a growth pole for rural communities
• Grande Prairie is important far outside of its
  borders
• But governance structure needs to ensure everyone
  benefits and everyone participates

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What is needed for success?

• Cooperate check petty jealousies at the door
• Communities need to find common interests
• Define region commuting sheds is good start
• Maybe better to think of towns as
  neighbourhoods rather than municipalities in a
  living web of connected regional neighbourhoods.
  (Mayor Ayling of Grande Prairie)
• Communities need to build trust
• Realize that everyone benefits, though not
  necessarily equally
• Build supporting infrastructure
• Soft governance and grassroots buy-in
• Hard such as roads

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Summary

• Rural Canada myth of returning to the 1950s must
  be discarded
• Policy needs to re-focus on what can be attained
  rather than perpetuating a myth
• Growth in much of rural Canada is quite dependent
  on linking to urban areas
• Exceptions mostly include tourist and retirement
  destinations and some resource communities
• Rose, your turn.

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Defining the Rural-Urban Linkages

• Defining rural-urban linkages key to making
  infrastructure decisions AND infrastructure
  decisions influence rural-urban interdependence
• Businesses locating in a rural setting to serve
  the urban mkt., benefit from lower land prices
  while having access to urban labour markets
  (infrastructure linkages)
• Clients driving out
• Moving product into urban areas
• Accessing higher order urban services
• Labour commuting urban to rural
• Forward and backward linked industries, rural and
  urban
• Air travel, globally

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Defining the Linkages (contd)

• Households choosing rural locations
• Access to urban amenities, upscale shopping,
  higher order services, entertainment and
  recreation
• Access to urban employment
• Private and public infrastructure required in
  growing nearby rural communities
• Urban households linked to rural areas
• Recreation, rural amenities
• Employment

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The Research

• Infrastructure Canada funding, SSHRC
  peer-reviewed competition last fall
• PI Mark Partridge, Rose Olfert and community
  leaders
• Strong partnerships with CRRF and FCM
• Additional partners Saskatoon City Planner, other
  cities tbd (FCM)
• Case Studies
• Transportation expert

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Mapping the Rural-Urban InterfacePartnerships
for Sustainable Infrastructure Development

• Commuting sheds surrounding all Canadian Census
  Agglomerations (CAs) and Census Metropolitan
  Areas (CMAs)
• Link between the urban core and its periphery
• Regions for planning the efficient provision of
  infrastructure for mutual benefit
• Statistical analysis of the effect of urban
  growth on rural and exurban areas, policy
  implications
• Detail the nature of the decay in commuting
  intensity, governance implications

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Research Project (continued)

• City and regional planners provide regional
  planning implications of statistical results, for
  various city sizes
• Implications for transportation network--case
  studies, consider alternative growth scenarios
  for the urban and rural components, consider
  governance, physical and environmental
  constraints
• Case studies are important one size doesnt fit
  all!
• Our research suggests very different rural-urban
  interdependence Ontario-west vs Quebec-east.
• Source Ali, K., Olfert, R. and Partridge, M.
  Can Geographically Weighted Regressions Improve
  Regional Analysis and Policymaking? 2006.
  www.crerl.usask/research.

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Research Project (continued)

• Conventional training for students, as well as
  the opportunity for students to gain practical
  experience working with planners and
  transportation specialists
• Ongoing input from CRRF and FCM
  partnerssignificant and on-going in-kind and
  other support

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Research project (contd)

• Work is underway with a grad student, post doc
  and research associate engaged
• Recruiting additional cities for case studies
• Data purchase has been purchasednational POR/POW
  data for 2,800 CCS, 1981, 1991, 1996, 2001large
  and expensive data set
• Importance of POW data for economic analysis2006?

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Research project (contd)

• Maps show the details of the commuting sheds
• Unanswered questions wrt overlapping commuting
  sheds, especially in S. Ontario
• Statistical analysis in progressearly results
  within the year
• Case studies very important, and will be tailored
  to generalize results for other cities across the
  heterogeneous regions

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Importance of Rural-Urban Mapping

• Rural-urban divide mentality counter-productive
  in terms of practical development efforts,
  including infrastructure planning
• Rural-urban areas common interests can be
  empirically establisheda mutual benefit model
  will be superior
• Rural-urban interface research essential to
  progress towards regional governance/co-operation
  models

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Thank you

• Presentation will be posted at
• The Ohio State University, AED Economics,
  Swank Program website
• http//aede.osu.edu/programs/Swank/
• The University of Saskatchewan, CRERL website
• http//www.crerl.usask.ca
• (under presentations)