Terry Done, Emre Turak, Mary Wakeford, Scott Wooldridge, Stuart Kininmonth, Glenn Death, Ray Berkelm

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Testing bleaching resistance hypotheses for the
2002 Great Barrier Reef bleachingevent a
contribution to the Transforming Coral Reef
Conservation initiative andtoolkit

• Terry Done, Emre Turak, Mary Wakeford, Scott
  Wooldridge, Stuart Kininmonth, GlennDeath, Ray
  Berkelmans and Madeleine Van Oppen.
• Australian Institute of Marine Science,PMB 3,
  Townsville MC, Qld. 4810.

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the NGO vision.

• . to transform the way marine protected areas
  (MPAs) are selected, designed, and managed

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February 2002
1.5 m
1.5 m
Feb 02 2002 Bleached but mainly living staghorn
corals. Mid-shelf reef
0.5 m
1 m
Feb 02 2002 Blues and mauves are more vivid than
normal. Mid-shelf reef.
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July 2002
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July 2002
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July 2002
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1850
Optimal
Strength of coral calcification (Determined by
Aragonite saturation ?, which is a function of
atmospheric CO2) Joan Kleypas John Guinotte
2009
Adequate
2050
Marginal
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1990
Sea Surface Temperature
3031
29-30
24-29
1824 O C
Joan Kleypas John Guinotte
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Roger Jones CSIRO- Reef Clim model
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Bleaching impacts cruise June July 2002
A.
J.
B.
C.
D.
Townsville
K.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
Rockhampton
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Cumulative heat stress
Maximum heat stress
Acclimatization regime
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• Towards a toolkit for protecting biodiversity in
  Marine Protected Areas (MPAs).
• Draft questions seeking answers from science
• How can I, as an MPA site or system manager,
  identify those areas under my domain that are
  resilient or resistant to climate related coral
  bleaching?
• Source TNCs Draft framework for toolkit for MPA
  design.

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Step 1 Refine the question
A. May be overheated next time
D. Poorly Adapted
C. Well Adapted
B. Unlikely to be overheated
Learn to recognise and include these places in PAN
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A vision for conservation becomes a scientific
concept
that leads to targetted research
and a process that embraces uncertainty,
provides transparency and (can) support decision
making
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Acclimatization regime Source J. Guinotte JCU
and S. Wooldridge, AIMS
Correlation from field data and SST
Remote sensing Oceanography Coral Reef
Ecology Scenario modelling
Source Done et al. AIMS
Risk map Source C. Steinberg and W. Skirving,
AIMS
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50 km SST
Bayesian Belief Network Scott Wooldridge AIMS
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Bayesian Belief Network Scott Wooldridge AIMS
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Four all-inclusive classes of reef biodiversity
How do we know which places will be relatively
cooler?
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Recommendations

• Consider initial identification of prospective
  reefs for inclusion as a spatial risk assessment
• Aim for a comprehensive representation of coral
  reef biodiversity in the ecoregion of interest.
• Use heat stress indicators derived from
  sea-surface temperature (SST) maps for known
  bleaching years to identify those places that
  were relatively cooler

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• Within these cooler areas, select reefs that
  include replicated representation of all the
  classes of coral reef biodiversity for the
  ecoregion.
• Look to field assessments, longer-term data and
  local knowledge to seek to include biodiversity
  not represented in the cooler areas.
• To maximise the inclusion of all biodiversity and
  the potental for acclimatization to increasing
  temperatures, include reefs that have
  historically been exposed to relatively warmer
  and relatively cooler waters for that part of the
  world

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Marginality preindustrial 09 29 49 69
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No setbacks
Appearance
Ecology
Bleaching impact projections
10,000 simulations
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No climate change
1990 baseline
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• Using the data to predict bleaching state or
  vulnerability of other reefs?

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Summer 2002 heat anomaly index
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J.
K.