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The Challenge of Change: Governing complex and dynamic marine socio-ecological systems

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Focusing only on fish/fishing will not suffice. Monitoring/early warning systems ... No simple/all-purpose prescription the devil is in the details. The good news ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The Challenge of Change: Governing complex and dynamic marine socio-ecological systems


1
The Challenge of ChangeGoverning complex and
dynamic marine socio-ecological systems
  • Oran R. Young
  • CLIOTOP Workshop April 2007

2
CLIOTOP Emphases
  • Themes
  • Change
  • Management/governance
  • Sustainability
  • Goal
  • Integrated research projects

3
Complex and Dynamic Systems
  • The setting
  • The systems we encounter in the real world often
    differ sometimes drastically from those we
    commonly assume for purposes of analysis
  • Major factors
  • Nonlinearities and chaotic behavior
  • Sensitivity to initial conditions
  • Impacts of exogenous shocks
  • Thresholds, tipping points, and state changes
  • Emergent properties
  • Fast, irreversible, and often nasty changes

4
Consequences
  • Methodological implications
  • Design implications

5
Methodological Implications
  • Many traditional methods of analysis are of
    limited value in such settings
  • Example exploring links between a well-defined
    DV and several IVs through applications of
    regression analysis
  • Methods capable of dealing with complex causality
    become increasingly important
  • Systems analysis simulations and sensitivity
    analysis
  • Scenarios exploring future trajectories
  • Meta-analysis/configurational comparisons (e.g.
    QCA)
  • Case studies, counterfactuals, natural
    experiments
  • We are not alone
  • Compare the circumstances of climate modelers

6
Design Implications
  • One size does not fit all
  • Designing governance systems to match the
    principal features of specific marine systems
  • The diagnostic method launching queries to
    determine what arrangements are needed in
    specific situations
  • Discontinuous change?
  • Sudden/surprising change?
  • Irreversible change?

7
Design Implications contd
  • Addressing change in complex systems
  • Holistic, multi-sectoral analysis
  • Focusing only on fish/fishing will not suffice
  • Monitoring/early warning systems
  • Targeting monitoring to critical points and
    building in redundancy
  • Rapid response capability
  • Capacity to respond promptly when thresholds come
    into sight (e.g. population collapses)
  • Flexibility and social learning
  • The need to adjust institutions at a pace that
    keeps up with changes in the relevant
    socio-ecological system

8
Design Implications contd
  • Coping with uncertainty in complex systems
  • Precautionary approaches
  • Locating the burden of proof
  • Insurance schemes
  • Role of MPAs, no-take zones
  • Heuristics/rules of thumb
  • Roles for traditional/informal ecological
    knowledge
  • What the fishers know

9
Conclusion
  • The bad news
  • No simple/all-purpose prescription the devil is
    in the details
  • The good news
  • Lots of scope for designing regimes that are
    well-matched to specific situations
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