North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity NPCREP

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North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem
Productivity (NPCREP)
Ned CyrNOAA Fisheries Service Office of Science
and TechnologySilver Spring, MD Ned.cyr_at_noaa.gov
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NOAA Matrix Science
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NPCREP Research Focus The Bering Sea
Why?

• Climate sensitivity
• Resource value
• Knowledge base
• Observing system
• Leverage with other programs

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Alaska Supplies about Half the Sea Food Caught in
the U.S.
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Protected Species
Steller Sea Lion
Humpback Whale
Right Whale
Bowhead Whales
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Impact of Quasi-Decadal Climate Patterns on Salmon
Time history of PDO and AO indices (top) and
associated changes in biological populations
(bottom).
Catch (millions)
Hare and Mantua, 2000
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Warming Conditions are Being Observed at High
Latitudes
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Ocean temperature determines distribution of fish
60oN
C
58oN
170oW 170 165
60oW
60oN
58oN
0.0 0.25 0.50
0.75 1.0
Relative fish abundance
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FY05 Plans Observe

• Preserve and expand NPCREPs biophysical
  observing system to detect climate impacts.
• Deploy and recover middle shelf moorings.
• Initiate a spring biophysical survey of the
  Bering Sea shelf.
• Conduct a pilot summer plankton survey in the
  Bering Sea.

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FY05 Plans Understand

• Achieve a mechanistic understanding of
  climate-ecosystem interactions.
• Study transport of larvae within the shelf.
• Explore the role of eddies in cross-shelf flux.
• Build a conceptual model for the eastern Bering
  Sea.
• Undertake retrospective analyses of Gulf of
  Alaska larval fish.

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FY05 Plans Predict
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FY05 Plans Advise and Inform

• Provide essential information on climate and
  ecosystems to stakeholders.
• Improve climate-ecosystem advice to the North
  Pacific Fishery Management Council.
• Develop an NPCREP website.
• Support the Bering Climate web site
  http//www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/.
• Begin development of a Gulf of Alaska climate web
  site.

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FY05 Effort and Spending
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Challenges and Priorities

• Challenges
• Secure funding support and ship time.
• Integrate new technology to achieve real-time
  reporting of in situ observations.
• Priorities
• Establish observation network.
• Develop tools to synthesize/integrate large
  numbers of indices or metrics.
• Increase understanding of mechanisms.
• Incorporate environmental data into
  forecast/stock assessment models.

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Climate affects the ecosystem through sea ice