Scenario planning interventions in organizations

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Scenario planning interventions in organizations

• An analysis of the causes of success and failure
• George Wrighta, Kees van der Heijdenb, George
  Burtb, Ron Bradfieldb, George Cairns

Carlos Eduardo Cunha ceac_at_cin.ufpe.br
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Index

• Inertia
• Giraffe in quicksand
• Case of success
• Conclusions
• Questions?!

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Inertia

• Commitment to current strategy will grow over
  time
• Operational process become deeply embedded ?
  mental models
• Mental models
• prevent managers from sensing problems
• delay changes in strategy
• lead to action that is ineffective in a new
  environment.
• In simpler, less turbulent environments, inertia
  may allow managers to focus on the most important
  issues

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Inertia
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Inertia

• Vigilance
• Careful search and use of information
• There is better solution, and time for debate and
  search.
• Hypervigilance
• May have better solution, but not enough time.
• Defensive avoidance
• There is no better solution than current course.
• Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering.
• Unconflicted adherence
• Do not change course.
• Unconflicted change
• Change current course to unthreatened.

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Inertia

• Scenario Planning Intervention would be most
  appropriate after there is recognition that the
  threat current strategy is high, but before the
  psychological processes takes place

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Giraffe in quicksand

• Major corporation
• Senior management team
• Interviews before scenario planning exercise
• Interviewees active participants in exercise

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Giraffe in quicksand

• Organizations current strategic direction was
  failing
• Risks to be serious if the organization failed to
  change its current strategy
• Risks to be serious if the organization did
  change its strategy

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Giraffe in quicksand

• Procrastination, buck passing, and bolstering
• Rub salt into a wound
• http//br.youtube.com/watch?vjcdRT0Xv2RU

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Case of success

• Operating in the drinks industry
• Parent companys principal role is the marketing
  and branding of the groups drinks products
• Mission
• Provide a quality service in the blending,
  bottling and storage of scotch whisky and other
  spirits
• Co-operate with our customers in assisting them
  to develop their brands
• Provide a realistic return on the companys
  assets
• Long periods of small, incremental change,
  interrupted by much shorter periods of
  discontinuous, radical change.

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Case of success

• Pre-intervention interviews
• Workshops with an informed outsider (remarkable
  person)
• Stimulated and Encouraged
• Re-consider the purpose and objectives of the
  organization
• Shifting responsibility (buck passing)

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Conclusions

• Rethinking is an appropriate, vigilant, response
  to the jolt of a scenario thinking intervention
• Indicated lower procrastination, buck-passing, or
  bolstering behavior levels
• Stresses engendered by a decision dilemma ?
  decision avoidance ? poor information search and
  contingency planning ? disabled Scenario
  intervention

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Conclusions

• However
• Team leadership
• Team dynamics
• Organizational Competence
• Organizational Power
• Organizational Architecture

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• Questions?!