USGS Navajo Land-Use Planning Project

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USGS Navajo Land-Use Planning Project
Jointly funded by NCGMP and ESD
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Navajo Nation

• 72,000 km2
• 27,000 mi2

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Project Participants

• USGS Margaret Hiza, George Billingsley, Debra
  Block, Lee Amoroso, Kathryn Thomas (George Breit)
• Arch Anthro Contractors Klara Kelley Harris
  Francis, Ted Neff MNA (NNAD)
• NAU Students- Leanna Begay (Purdue), Naomi
  Yazzie-Translator, Delton Lester, Darren Begay
• Navajo geobotanist- Arnold Clifford
• SOARS, U of A- Casey Thornbrugh

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U.S. Geological Survey Mission

• The U.S.G.S. serves the Nation by providing
  reliable scientific information to describe and
  understand the Earth minimize loss of life and
  property from natural disasters manage water,
  biological, energy, and mineral resources and
  enhance and protect our quality of life.
• Multidisciplinary Geology, Hydrology, Biology,
  Geography (Geospatial Data), Astrogeology

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Geologic mapping related studies

• Bedrock and Surficial Mapping for land use
  planning
• Sand dune mobility and drought effects on native
  and invasive plant species
• LCR channel and floodplain evaluation
• Earthquake hazards from active faults
• Shallow groundwater resources- Pueblo Colorado
  Wash
• Road/Infrastructure mapping and surface-run-off
  evaluation

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Objectives and Strategies

• Bedrock Mapping Information for
• land use planning and urban development
• Structural stability of housing foundations
• Environmental impacts of landfills/septic systems
• Hydrologic Resources
• Landscape stability/surface erosion

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Objectives and Strategies

• Surficial Mapping Information for land use
  planning and urban development
• Geologic Hazards
• Landscape changes in response to land use and
  climate change
• Drought mitigation
• Surface Erosion / Vegetation

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Surficial Geology Little Colorado River channel
migration
1992
2006
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Drought has reactivated dunes in NE Arizona.
Droughts are likely to become more severe with
climate change. Shifting sands inundate roads and
buildings and also affect vegetation and grazing.
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Threatened Water Supplies Alluvial Aquifers
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Changes in Average Annual Temperature
Location Historic (60s) Current (00-06)
Chinle, AZ 51.6 o F 55.5 o F
Farmington, NM 51.6 o F 53.9 o F
Lees Ferry, AZ 62.2 o F 64.0 o F
Tuba City, AZ 55.0 o F 58.1 o F
Shiprock, NM 53.3 o F 56.3 o F
Wupatki, AZ 57.3 o F 58.8 o F
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Navajo Nation Average Annual Snowfall
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Climate Change

• Models Large in scale, look at averages
• Storm Intensity likely to increase
• Storm frequency?
• Drought Severity likely to increase
• Less Snow/More Rain
• Thresholds CO2 in oceans, Fresh water input

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Sand Dunes

• Sensitive indicators of climate change
• Overall Moisture Balance
• Degree of vegetation cover
• Wind circulation patterns

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Inactive / Stable Sand Dunes
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Largely Active Sand Dunes
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Fully Active Dunes Tuba City
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Climatic factors describing sand dune mobility

• Sand dune mobility (M) W/(P/PE)
• Sand transport potential (W) Percent of
  time wind velocities are high enough to transport
  sand grains
• Effective precipitation (P/PE) Ratio of
  total precipitation (P) over potential
  evapotranspiration (PE)

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Degree of Stability
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May 20 Windstorm, Red Mesa, NN
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NDVI

• Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
• Measures relative vegetation productivity from
  AVHRR Satellite data
• Applicable to various vegetation bio-types
• Used to assess vegetation response to
  precipitation in US Great Plains, Chihuahuan
  Desert, and Kalahari of Botswana

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Comparison of calculated sand dune mobility and
NDVI
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above normal AMJ temperatures (dotted bars)
concurrent with low NDVI particularly 2000-2004
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Climate Change

• Need to look at variations, are averages/totals
  meaningful?
• Storm Intensity and frequency
• Are we able to clearly measure drought severity
• Thresholds
• Responses

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Processes responsible for changes in the
ecosystem
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Dune mobility destabilization

• Land Use
• Invasive Species
• Drought length
• Timing and Intensity of Precipitation
• Changes in sediment availability

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Tons/Acre Erosion
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Kayenta AZ, September 2003
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Kayenta, AZ 2004
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Redefine Drought

• Not simply a change in precipitation
• Includes relative impacts of types of
  precipitation and storm intensity
• Timing of precipitation events
• Temperature important factor
• How landscape interacts to changing conditions-
  land use and climate

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Traditional Knowledge and the Native Perspective

• Increases our ability to understand changing
  environmental conditions
• Promotes scientific inquiry within Native
  Communities
• Influences
• Strategies and
• Methods of
• Scientific Inquiry

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NLUPP Endorsement

• Cliff Atleo- Clayoquot Sound Region Board, Tribal
  Fisheries Representative of Canada
• Ramona Bennett-former chairwoman Puyallup Tribe
• Alden Big Man- Crow Cultural Preservation/ LBHC
• Charlotte Black Elk and Kim Winkleman- Comanche
  Nation College
• Patricia Cochran- President Alaska Native Science
  Commission
• Phil Duran- Former Dean of Science NW Indian
  College
• Freda Porter Locklear- Lumbee Chairwoman/
  President of Porter Environmental
• James RattlingLeaf Sinte Gleska/Rosebud Sioux
• Verna Teller-Former Chairwoman Isleta Pueblo
• Oscar Kwageley-Founder Alaska Native Knowledge
  Network
• Sarah Young-Dull knife Memorial College
• Dan Wildcat- Haskell University
• Sarge Old Horn- Crow NRCS
• Arvin Trujillo- NN Division of Natural Resources
• Many other Navajo Nation Offices

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Conclusions

• Navajo Nation and other portions of the Western
  U.S. have and will experience magnified drought
  conditions as a result of Climate Change
• 1oC Warming 2 Rainfall lost to
  Evapotranspiration
• Rainfall is likely to occur less frequently, in
  larger storm/flood events
• Snowfall is decreasing/ which may result in a
  decrease in water supplies
• Invasive plants are opportunistic, and invade
  areas where Native plants are stressed, which
  results in a loss of culturally significant
  plants and grazing land

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