Global/International Team Report

1
Applications of Models-3/CMAQ From Urban and
Regional to Hemispheric Scales
Carey Jang, Ph.D. Air Quality Modeling
Group Office of Air Quality Planning Standards
U.S. EPA, RTP, NC
Models-3 User Workshop, 10/28/03
2
Los Angeles Forest Fire Oct. 26, 2003
3
OUTLINE

• One-Atmosphere Linkages of Ozone and PM (and
  other pollutants)
• One Modeling System Urban, Regional, and
  Hemispheric Scales
• One Community U.S., Pacific/Atlantic Regions,
  East Asia (China Taiwan)

4
One-Atmosphere Approach
Mobile Sources
Ozone
NOx, VOC, PM, Toxics
PM
(Cars, trucks, planes, boats, etc.)
Industrial Sources
Acid Rain
Chemistry Meteorology
Visibility
NOx, VOC, SOx, PM, Toxics
(Power plants, refineries/ chemical plants, etc.)
Air Toxics
Atmospheric Deposition
Area Sources
Climate Change
NOx, VOC, PM, Toxics
(Residential, farming commercial, biogenic, etc.)
5
Example of One-Atmosphere Modeling
Impact of 50 NOx Emission Reduction on PM 2.5
July 15, 1995
6
Impact of 50 NOx emission reduction
Nitrate PM decrease
Sulfate PM decrease
July 15, 1995
7
Impact of 50 NOx emission reduction
O3 decrease
HOx decrease
July 15, 1995
8
Formation of Secondary PM (PM2.5)
Sulfate PM formation H2SO4 2 NH3 ---gt
(NH4)2SO4 (s) Gas Phase SO2 OH
---gt H2SO4 Aqueous Phase
S(IV) H2O2 ---gt H2SO4 (Dominate over low
pH) S(IV) O3 ---gt H2SO4
Organic PM formation VOC OH, O3, NO3
Gas Phase ---gt Condensable VOC products
(semi-volatile) Aerosol Phase ---gt SOA
Long-chain VOC (C7 above),
Aromatics, Biogenic VOC (terpene)
Nitrate PM formation HNO3 NH3 lt---gt
NH4NO3 (aq,s) Gas Phase
(daytime) NO2 OH ---gt HNO3 Gas
Heterogeneous Phase (night) N2O5
H2O ---gt HNO3
9
Impact of 50 NOx emission reduction
O3 decrease
HOx decrease
July 15, 1995
10
Impact of 50 NOx emission reduction
Nitrate PM decrease
Sulfate PM decrease
July 15, 1995
11
50 NOx reduction
Nitrate PM Sulfate PM -- (decrease)
-- (decrease)
(July monthly Average, 1996)
12
50 NOx reduction
Ozone Organic PM --
(decrease) -- (decrease)
(July Average, 1996)
13
Secondary PM formation
Linkages between O3 and PM
14
.OH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation
One-Atmosphere
PM2.5
SOx or NOx NH3 OH ---gt (NH4)2SO4
or NH4NO3
VOC OH ---gt Orgainic PM
One Atmosphere
Ozone
Visibility
One Atmosphere
Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)
.OH
NOx VOC OH hv ---gt O3
Acid Rain
Water Quality
SO2 OH ---gt H2SO4
NOx SOx OH (Lake Acidification,
Eutrophication)
NO2 OH ---gt HNO3
OH lt---gt Air Toxics (POPs, Hg,
etc.)
Air Toxics
15
OUTLINE

• One-Atmosphere Linkages of Ozone and PM (and
  other pollutants)
• One Modeling System Urban, Regional, and
  Hemispheric Scales
• One Community U.S., Pacific/Atlantic Regions,
  East Asia (China Taiwan)

16
Air Quality Modeling Applications at EPA/OAQPS
Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain
China Modeling Domain
U.S. Modeling Domain
36 km eastern US domain
4 km domain
12 km domain
12 km western US domain
36 km western US domain
36 km Annual National US domain
17
M3/CMAQ Applications at EPA/OAQPS

• U.S. Modeling Air Quality Modeling Group
  (Jang, Dolwick, Timin, Possiel, Tikvart,
  Evangelista, Braverman, Strum, etc.)
• Intercontinental Modeling EPA (Jang, Doll),
  UNC-CEP (Hanna, Vukovich, Xiu, Adelman, Mathur)
  ANL (Streets), Harvard (Jacob), Stanford
  (Jacobson), U. of TN (Fu), U. of Iowa (Woo), NCSU
  (Xie Wang)
• East Asia Modeling EPA (Jang), U. of TN (Fu),
  ANL (Streets), U. of Iowa (Woo), NCSU (Xie
  Wang), China-SAES, Taiwan-CCTI NCKU
• EPA/ORD Support is the key for the success !

18
Models-3/CMAQ Simulation Annual Average (1996)
PM 2.5
Sulfate PM
Organic PM
Nitrate PM
19
Nitrate PM
CMAQ-2001 CMAQ-2002 CMAQ-Sept03
(January avg., 1996)
20
Anthropogenic SOA
Biogenic SOA
15 ug/m3
0.6 ug/m3
CMAQ- 2002
7 ug/m3
0.2 ug/m3
CMAQ- 2003
(July avg., 1996)
21
Ozone
CMAQ-2002 CMAQ-2003
(July avg., 1996)
22
Sulfate PM
CMAQ-2002 CMAQ-2003
(July avg., 1996)
23
Air Quality Modeling Applications at EPA/OAQPS
Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain
China Modeling Domain
U.S. Modeling Domain
36 km eastern US domain
4 km domain
12 km western US domain
12 km domain
36 km western US domain
36 km Annual National US domain
24
Air Pollution Truly Has No National Boundaries
25
Dust Storms
26

Asian Dust Storm Event April 2001 (NASA/TOMS)

(4/7)
(4/9)
(4/11)
(4/12)
(4/13)
(4/14)
27
ASIAN DUST REACHED WESTERN U.S. (April 1998)
SF
LA
GOES Satellite Image
PM10 West Coast
(Courtesy of Prof. Husar, WUSL)
28

Transport of CO March 2000 (NASA/MOPITT)
(3/10)
(3/12)

(3/15)
(3/13)
(Byun and Uno, 2000)
29
Intercontinental Transport Climatic Effects of
Air Pollutants (ICAP) USEPAs International
Modeling Project
Models-3/CMAQ Trans-Pacific modeling Domain
30
ICAP Emissions Data Preparation Processing
NOx Emissions
(VOC)
VOC (PAR) Emissions
31
U.S. emissions
Canada emissions
Mexico emissions
32
Asian emissions data (TRACE-P ACE/Asia)
Energy/ Emission
Regional Emis.
GIS
Remote Sensing /etc.
FC
AI
Precipitation
Courtesy of Dr. Jung-Hun Woo, Univ. of Iowa
33
Large Point Sources
Industry
Transportation
Smaller Power
Biomass Burning
Domestic Fossil Fuel
Shipping
Aviation
FC
AI
34
ICAP Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain
Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants PM
35
ICAP Trans-Pacific Modeling Domain
Trans-Pacific Transport of Air Pollutants PM
36
ICAP Trans-Atlantic Modeling Domain
Trans-Atlatic Models-3/CMAQ Modeling Domain
37
ICAP Plan FY04-05

• Proposed activities
• Integrate satellite (MODIS, TOM, GOME, etc.)
  observations and surface-based aircraft (ITCT,
  TRACE-P) data with model simulation results
• Continue intercontinental regional modeling
  assessment for selected current future
  policy-relevant emissions scenarios
• Develop apply an integrated model with coupled
  meteorology and chemistry (e.g., MM5 CMAQ) to
  study the impact of air pollution on regional
  climate
• Continue to support development of improved
  emission inventories and future emission
  scenarios
• Conduct a pilot study on integrated environmental
  health climate assessment of air pollution over
  key emissions-growing regions such as Asia

38
Air Quality Modeling Assessment Projects over
Greater China Regions
Beijing and Shanghai modeling studies being
initiated
4-km
Taiwan modeling study is on-going
12-km
China National/regional modeling study to be
completed in Oct. 2003
36-km
39
Air Quality Modeling over China Ozone
12-km
36-km
40
Projected Air Quality over China (July 4-20,
2001, episodic average)
2008 (Business as usual)
PM 2.5
(No change from 2001)
2008 (Growth Scenario)
2008 (Control Scenario)
(Man-made emissions 50)
(Man-made emissions -- 50)
41
Air Quality Modeling over China PM
PM 2.5
Sulfate PM
Organic PM
Nitrate PM
42
Air Quality Modeling over China Taiwan Model
Nesting
12-km
4-km
36-km
43
Nested Modeling at Different Grid Resolution PM
2.5
4-km (non-nested)
12-km
36-km
Taiwan (Jan. 4-20, 2001, episode avg.)
44
36/12/4km CMAQ Sulfate PM (Episodic Average)
12-km
4-km
36-km
Atlanta, Georgia (July 4-16, 1995)
45
36/12/4km CMAQ Cloud Fraction
4-km
12-km
Atlanta, Georgia (July 14, 1995), predicted by MM5
46
Air Pollution Control in 21st Century
State/ Multi-Counties
Federal/ Multi-State
City /Town
County
International
1920 1950 1970 1980 1990
2000
47
Questions ??????
48
PM2.5 in Beijing (Model simulation)
M3/CMAQ (12-km) Jan. 4-20, 2001 Mass 121.4 ug/m3
PM2.5 in Beijing (Monitoring data)
Annual Average for all sites (2000) Mass 95.5
ug/m3
(Courtesy of Prof. Zhang, Beijing Univ., 2002)
49
Projected Air Quality over China (July 4-20,
2001, episodic max)
2008 (Business as usual)
Ozone
(No change from 2001)
2008 (Growth Scenario)
2008 (Control Scenario)
(Man-made emissions -- 50)
(Man-made emissions 50)
50
Air Quality Modeling over China PM 2.5
12-km
36-km
51
Annual Continental U.S. CMAQ Modeling O3 (1996
July Max in ppb)
56
99
149
62
134
132
139
76
137
107
126
119
131
215
127
144
113
194
52
NOx-Related Air Quality Issues
(NO3-, NH4) PM
(NOx VOC hv) --gt Ozone
NOx
Acid Rain (NO3- deposition)
Visibility (Fine PM)
Water Quality (Nitrogen deposition, Lake
Acidification)
53
SOx-Related Air Quality Issues
(Fine PM) Visibility
(SO42-, NH4) PM
SOx
Acid Rain (SO42- deposition)
Water Quality (Lake acidification)
54
TRANS-PACIFIC DUST TRANSPORT
Grand Canyon
Beijing, China
April 7, 2001
April 14, 2001