Severe Weather Planning

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Severe Weather Planning

• Andy Bailey
• National Weather Service
• Kansas City / Pleasant Hill, MO

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Agenda

• Importance of Weather
• NWS Overview
• What is available on the web
• Planning and Safety Rules

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Economic and Societal Impacts
Annual Cost Deaths

• Tornadoes 2.9 billion 44
• Floods 2.4 billion 96
• Hurricanes 6.4 billion 20
• Winter Storms gt 1 Billion 47
• Lighning gt 1 Billion 175
• Hail 2.3 Billion

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Weather Impacts

• Power generation costs
• Shipping costs
• Transportation costs (airlines etc)
• Building material costs
• Heating / cooling costs
• Food prices
• Insurance rates
• Employee costs

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Weather Impacts

• How does weather impact your employees?
• Telecommute?
• Snow days at childs school
• Sick days
• Missed / delayed flights

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• How does weather affect your business?

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• What are you doing to plan for weather?

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• NWS Overview

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What We Do

• Produce Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts
  and Warnings
• For All Americans
• To Protect Life and Property
• To Enhance the National Economy
• Data and Products
• Government Agencies
• Private Sector
• The Public
• Global Communities
• Weather and data are becoming more important to
  economy and business decisions
• The annual cost of electricity could decrease by
  at least 1 billion if the accuracy of weather
  forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit. USA
  Today, 6/19/01

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What We Do

• The NWS is the only OFFICIAL voice for issuing
  severe weather warnings.
• Produce public, aviation, and fire weather
  forecasts
• Provide support to other local, state and federal
  government agencies.
• River and flood forecasts and services
• Largest data collection network in the world
• NOAA Weather Radio
• Skywarn Spotter Program
• Cooperative Observation Program
• Outreach projects

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National Weather Service Offices Nationwide
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Background Information

• Lots and Lots of free NWS stuff available
• National Weather Service limits on services
• Private Weather Vendors
• for interpretation and customized service

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How a Forecast was Made
2) Forecaster looks at forecast guidance from
several numerical weather prediction models and
begins making a mental image of the forecast
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How a Forecast was Made

• Once the forecaster creates the mental image of
  the forecast they then used to
• Type the aviation forecast
• Type the public forecast
• Type the fire weather forecast
• The forecaster could spend up to 3 hours a day
  typing!

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New Forecast Method

• Observed and computer forecast guidance acts as
  base forecast
• Forecaster then adjusts the gridded model
  forecast in a digital forecast database to best
  match expected forecast
• Digital forecast database is the source for
  traditional forecasts, and new highly customized
  forecasts

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Computer forecasts directly input into Graphical
Forecast Editing Software
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Forecasters edit gridded digital data
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Not Just Temperature

• Temp
• Dewpoint
• RH
• Wind
• Sky
• Weather

• Probability of Precip
• Snow amounts
• Rain amounts
• Numerous Fire Weather Parameters

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Formats Available

• Free in GIS integratable grids
• XML Web Service
• Graphics

nws.noaa.gov/ndfd
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Every Local NWS Office has an extensive web page

• Forecasts
• Radar
• Climate
• Warnings

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Getting Your Forecast

• Click on your location

Available in other formats
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Forecast in Yet Another Format
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Interpreting Radar Data
How Radar works
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NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
WSR-88D Capabilities

• Reflectivity
• Hot colors means more intense echoes (heavy
  rain/hail)
• Simply a measure of reflected energy
• Velocity
• Warm colors -Winds blowing away from the radar
• Cool colors Winds blowing toward the radar

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Radar Precipitation Estimates

• Overestimate Causes
• Hail Contamination
• Evaporation in sub
• cloud layer
• Underestimate Causes
• Tropical-like regimes

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Products to Anticipate Severe Weather

• HWO
• Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the
  potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
• Provides a few hours notice that conditions are
  condusive to severe weather should storms develop
• Warnings
• Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
  imminent

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Anticipating Severe Weather

• Hazardous Weather Outlook
• Focus on expected threats.
• Seven day outlook for severe weather.
• Issued twice daily 6 a.m. and 1 p.m.
• Broadcast continuously on NWR.

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Products to Anticipate Severe Weather

• HWO
• Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the
  potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
• Provides a few hours notice that conditions are
  conducive to severe weather should storms develop
• Warnings
• Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
  imminent

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Severe Weather Watch
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 73NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER
NORMAN OK 1155 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006THE NWS
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTERN KANSAS
MOST OF MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY
MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000 PM
CST. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION... DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL
TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
EMPORIA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR
ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64
KWNS WOU3). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
WATCH Conditions are favorable for a severe
weather event in or near the watch area Watches
are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms,
Flash Floods and Floods
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Products to Anticipate Severe Weather

• HWO
• Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the
  potential for severe weather
• Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
• Provides a few hours notice that conditions are
  conducive to severe weather should storms develop
• Warnings
• Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or
  imminent

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Severe Weather Warning
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO
WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS
CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO807 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL
HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 845 PM CST AT 804 PM
CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER.
DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55
MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR HOUSTONIA BY
815 PM CST.THE TOWNS OF EMMANESLON AND
BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC
STORM.THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO
IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLESEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A
CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR
BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN
MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLESEVACUATE THEN AND GET
INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS
AVAILABLELIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER
LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON 3899 9365 3885 9359 3887 9293 3913
9295
WARNING A severe weather event is imminent or
occurring in the Warned area Warnings are issued
for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash
Floods, and Floods
Warned Area
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County-Based VS Storm-Based Warnings
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How Walmart Uses Polygons
Walmart EOC uses GIS to overlay polygons onto a
store location map Walmart EOC then calls
individual stores affected by warnings alerting
them of the threat
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Storm Prediction Center Website www.spc.noaa.gov
Good place for large scale outlook maps, and
technical discussions as to severe weather
threats across the country.
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How To Receive Warnings

• NOAA Weather Radio
• Nationwide network
• Alarm Feature
• Portable devices available
• Programmable to customize by location or warning
  type desired
• Equip every facility with one

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Overall Planning/Safety

• Before the season begins
• Create your weather safety plan and train
  employees/volunteers
• During the season
• Maintain your situational awareness
• Assign a person or position to be the weather
  watcher
• If thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to
  communicate appropriate threats and safety info
• Practice, Practice, Practice

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Threats From Thunderstorms

• The biggest threat from thunderstorms at outdoor
  events is lightning.
• Other risks include Hail
• straight-line winds gt80 mph
• possibly a tornado
• flooding in multiuse areas

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Threats From Thunderstorms-Lightning

• Kills more people than tornadoes
• Dangerous at great distances from parent storm
• 30-30 rule
• If the time between seeing lightning and hearing
  thunder is less than 30 seconds seek shelter
  immediately
• Dont emerge from shelter until 30 minutes after
  last thunder is heard-many deaths occur after the
  storm has passed

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Threats From Thunderstorms-Hail

• If you event has thousands or even hundreds of
  attendees, the potential for numerous injuries is
  high.
• If you follow the 30/30 lightning rule, hail
  should not be an issue.

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Questions to Ponder

• Do you have a severe weather plan for work and
  home? (if so do you practice it?)
• How can you integrate weather preparedness and
  data into your companies operations?
• How can your business perform better, and keep
  employees and customers safe using weather data?
• Whats stopping you from taking action?

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Questions?
andy.bailey_at_noaa.gov