We are sailing into UNCHARTERED TERRITORY

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THE PERFECT STORM
We are sailing into UNCHARTERED TERRITORY
Stuart Harris, CTUIR Department of Science and
Engineering
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Securing the Homeland

• Governance for the people, by the people
• Support the infrastructure for commerce
• Provide services for the population
• Provide for the well-being of the people

Land Base
Cultural Resources
Utilities
Insurance
Language
Clothing
Connectivity, Communications
Offices
Education
Investments
Shelter
Fairness
Religion
Workforce
Social Services
Water sewer
Voting
Justice
Food
Roads
Emergency Preparedness
Energy
Clinic
Clean Water
Friends
Safety
Securing the Future
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What should we be planning for?
Global Disruption? Fact The whole climate is
changing the winds, the ocean currents, the
storm patterns, snow packs, snowmelt, flooding,
droughts.
A peaceful three-hour tour? A little warmer, a
little more sunscreen.
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From Chad Kruger, WSU
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Fact Plants are Moving
Climate Change Pushes Plants Out of Their Comfort
Zone By Lauren CahoonScienceNOW Daily News26
June 2008
Mosaic of plants that are moving up the Alps in
elevation
http//sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/
2008/626/3?etoc
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Some projections predict that global population
will begin to decline after 2030. Even so, that
is more people than there is food and water.
Urban megacities are already buying water rights
from rural counties. Umatilla County will grow
by 1.5x to 4x in population.
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Future Winners and Losers in Food Prices
http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7284196.stm
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Water Stress Water Shortage
Factors to consider Summer Precipitation Winter
precipitation Soil moisture Evaporation Transpirat
ion Runoff Water quality Water temperature Dissolv
ed gases Infrastructure condition Wastewater
grey Wastewater sewage Ag chemicals Pharma
chemicals
http//www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/cu
rrent/lectures/freshwater_supply/freshwater.html
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Infrastructure Replacement Costs
http//www.popularmechanics.com/rebuildingamerica
Infrastructure Needs water pipes, sewers, POTW
capacity, roads, bridges, ports. Megacenters are
expected, so civil engineering projects must also
be supersized. Cascadia, San Francisco,
Southern Calif Long Beach, Texas Triangle,
etc. Consequence Privatized toll bridges and
toll roads. The federal budget cannot replace
water treatment systems will this increase
water pollution? Pay-Go?
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http//longevity.stanford.edu/doc/WhyPopulationAgi
ngMatters.pdf
Consequence older retirement age, fewer
pensions, less Social Security
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http//www.gao.gov/cghome/d08489cg.pdf
The 1 Trillion Iraq war debt makes this much
worse. Abundant federal dollars will not be
available.
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"Analyses of the Effects of Global Change on
Human Health and Welfare and Human Systems"
http//www.climatescience.gov/
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Envisioning a world of 200-a-barrel oil   As
forecasters take that possibility more seriously,
they describe fundamental shifts in the way we
work, where we live and how we spend our free
time. By Martin Zimmerman, Los Angeles Times
Staff Writer

• Telecommuting, 4-day work weeks.
• Some people will find that it is cheaper to quit
  their job and grow a Climate Change Victory
  Garden instead.
• Sample Governance Questions Should we provide
  soil testing, organic gardening support, cold
  storage and dehydration and other food processing
  locally, farmers market support, local craftsman
  support? Should zoning codes allow livestock?
  Etc.

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Basic Vocabulary Scenarios A1, B2 CO2 targets
350, 440 ppm Results of 2, 4, 6 Tipping
Points Footprints
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Science is finding things out figuring things
out through systematic observation and testing.
We like to be 90-95 sure about things. We
discuss facts and theories. But being open
minded makes science vulnerable to public
relations campaigns that create artificial
doubt or professional differences in opinion.

"Doubt is our product," a cigarette executive
once observed, "since it is the best means of
competing with the 'body of fact' that exists in
the minds of the general public. It is also the
means of establishing a controversy."
Facts 2 is inevitable 4 is probable 6
is possible.
Industry groups are fighting government
regulation by fomenting scientific uncertainty
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PLANNING and DECISION-MAKING amidst COMPLEXITY,
RISK, UNCERTAINTY

• Find common values and goals (e.g., survival,
  well-being, security, children/7 generations,
  clean cold water).
• Many things are in our favor resilience,
  foresight in stressor identification, proven
  Tribal adaptability over many millennia.
• Risk Management minimizing the maximum worst
  case outcome (mini-max) mitigating bad outcomes
  and taking advantage of good opportunities.
• There are political risks in spending money on
  plans and projects before the peak urgency is
  obvious.
• Abundant federal dollars will not be
  available. The rest of the world will be
  preoccupied with survival.

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Sample Decision Space to assign urgency and
worth
Unpredictable catastrophes with high
consequences requiring emergency response.
(e.g., flood, forest fire, epidemic, earthquake)
Highly certain but slower in coming, requiring
sustained response (e.g., water for home Ag.)

• TIME
• Size of Window
• Frequency of event

Frequent, low-impact events (e.g. brownouts)
Probability or Uncertainty
Other tools from Comparative Risk, Decision
Analysis, Risk-Based Decision Making,
Multi-Attribute Utility, Multi-criteria Analysis.
SEVERITY
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• Climate change is a slow-motion
  and sustained emergency
• Some acute emergencies will be more frequent or
  more severe others stressors will be slower to
  develop.
• DHS-FEMA-CDC have tested planning and
  evaluation processes for emergency preparedness,
  and require certain report and evaluation formats
  (HSEEP). They have many online tools.
• Climate planning should combine
  monitoring, risk management and
• emergency preparedness tools.
• There are also investment
• opportunities - alternative-energy,
  infrastructure, waste management,
  and energy efficiency.

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Buzz-Words
Tribes have survived termination and
subjugation policies, constant legal
attacks, poverty, ingrained racism, and
other facts of life on Indian
reservations, while still maintaining
cultural values. Adaptability is
the ability to select and use new objects
tools, and resiliency to natural events.
However, this can lead to resistance to change
and passive tolerance of threats and assaults.
Danger of being too adaptable (rather than
shifting paradigms and making inconvenient
changes to address the underlying problems).
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Al Gore Energy Crisis Can Be Fixed
(7-17-08) Says Situation Is Dire, But Not
Irreversible If Americans Start Rigorous Green
Plan Now Set 10-year Clean Energy Goal - 1.5
Trillion
Gore We've got to end our dependence on oil and
coal. The new demand for oil and coal from China
and these other fast-growing countries means that
the only way we're going to escape the rising
prices and the dependence on foreign sources is
by switching to renewable sources. T. Boone
Pickens is investing in water rights and wind.
We cant drill our way out of this challenge.
http//www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/energy/renewable/fra
mesource.html
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For a Glimpse into the Future

• A1/B2 Scenarios (up to 4 degrees and 650 ppm CO2
  most likely outcome)
• 500 ft down in elevation
• 800 miles south
• Big-city heat and CO2 islands
• Danger of complacency and over-simplification
  So what if Seattle looks like Tuscon or Tampa
  theyre doing fine.

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Alternative future Scenarios
Various authors have envisioned future scenarios
for adaptation processes and quality of life
outcomes, with assumptions about energy water
food human nature (violence, cooperation,
pragmatism, optimism) population and
governmental intervention. For
example Scramble Blueprint (Shell
Oil) Ecotopia Mad Max Star Trek Big
Government (R Costanza) Last Man
Standing Lifeboats Power Down Snooze/Lose
(R Heinberg Power Down)
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Paradigm Shift from Scramble to Blueprint, or
incremental response?
Example add 1 of insulation for every degree
warmer, or shift all at once to new design and
more flexible codes? Perils of incremental
response for some issues OK for others. Will
governance help or hinder these changes?
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SCRAMBLE lots of individual plans and projects,
incremental progress, but not coordinated toward
an overall integrated goal. BLUEPRINT
Integrated, cross-sectional, inter-disciplinary,
inter-agency master plan regional, national and
inter-national plans aligned.
http//www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell/our_s
trategy/shell_global_scenarios/shell_energy_scenar
ios_2050/shell_energy_scenarios_02042008.html