Verification of the 2003 IRI Experimental Seasonal Activity Forecasts

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Verification of the 2003 IRI Experimental
Seasonal Activity Forecasts

• Suzana J. Camargo and Anthony G. Barnston

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IRI Experimental Seasonal Typhoon Activity
Forecasts

• Probabilistic forecast issued for the first time
  in April 2003.
• Forecasts update monthly April, May, June, July
  2003.
• Forecasts for the peak typhoon season July to
  October (JASO).
• http//iri.columbia.edu/forecast/typhoon

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NTC -Typhoon Season 2003
Data until 10/17/03
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JASO 2003 NTC Forecasts
OBS. CLIM
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ASO 2003 forecast SST from April 2003
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ASO 2003 forecast SST from May 2003
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ASO 2003 forecast SST from June 2003
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Persisted SST June 2003
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ASO 2003 forecast SST from July 2003
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Persisted SST July 2003
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ACE Typhoon Season 2003
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Obs. Clim
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Location - forecasts

• Forecast April 2003 no shift in average
  location
• Forecast May 2003 no shift in average location
• Forecast June 2003 slight shift westward and
  northward.
• Forecast July 2003 slight shift westward and
  southward.
• Observations JASO 2003 slight shift westward.

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