Peace on the Korean Peninsula A New Zealand perspective

1
Peace on the Korean PeninsulaA New Zealand
perspective

• Tim Beal
• Victoria University of Wellington
• http//www.vuw.ac.nz/caplabtb/dprk
• Seminar at
• Hiroshima City University
• October 2004

2
Hiroshima

• Symbol of war, and of peace
• 6 August - Mayor Tadatoshi Akiba
• Criticised US for developing small nukes
• Called for global ban by 2020
• Branded NK development of nuclear deterrent
  worthless policy of 'nuclear insurance'.
• Honoured to be in Hiroshima, giving a New Zealand
  perspective
• NZ is nuclear free and has had argued with US
  over visits by nuclear ships/weapons

3
Korean Peninsula?

• Geographical focus is misleading
• Conflict on Korean peninsulagtgtNortheast Asia
  gtgtWorld
• Danger of conflict on Korean Peninsula most from
  US

4
War and Peace

• Wishing for peace not enough
• Need to study causes and drivers of conflict
• Firstly need to recognise uncertainty and
  propaganda
• (If time, then photos of last visit to DPRK in
  April)
• Then analyse positions of various parties

5
Different perceptions of reality

• Donald Rumsfeld
• Reports that say that something hasn't happened
  are always interesting to me, because as we know,
  there are known knowns there are things we know
  we know. We also know there are known unknowns
  that is to say we know there are some things we
  do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns
  - the ones we don't know we don't know
• http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3254852.stm

6
What Rumsfeld didnt mention

• Things we think we know, but we dont
• NK is much demonized reality is more uncertain
  and complex
• Four letter words
• Not Cheney to Leahy
• http//www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/06/24/cheney.l
  eahy/
• Two come to mind

7
Iraq and Lies

• WMD, links to El Qaeda.
• Blair admitted recently that claim that 400,000
  mass graves had been found in Iraq was false
• They found 5,000
• http//www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,126389
  9,00.html
• So many lies about Iraq what about NK?
• http//media.guardian.co.uk/site/story/0,14173,126
  4970,00.html
• Two recent incidents in SK
• Ask Is Bush policy based on a lie?

8
Two incidents

• Many cases where doubts arise about portrayal of
  NK
• Focus on two which have surfaced recently
• 1 - KAL 858 bombing of 1987
• 2 naval clashes

9
1987

• General Chun Doo-hwan under increasing pressure
  to step down
• Decides to transfer power to younger brother
  Gen Roh Tae-woo
• Nominated him for presidency
• Veteran US journalist Don Oberdorfer notes that
• Nomination caused biggest demonstrations since
  1960
• Roh was not expected to win

10
Prelude to election

• 29 Nov 1987 KAL 857 blows up over Andaman Sea
  all killed
• Two NK agents apprehended
• One commits suicide
• Other Kim Hyon-hee - brought to Seoul days
  before election
• Roh wins

11
Doubts arise

• NK denied involvement
• No NK motive Roh benefited
• 1.5 million votes
• Kim Hyon-hees sentence commuted and she was
  freed
• Married her chief guard
• Problems with investigation procedures

12
Doubts continue

• Doubts have continued over the years
• Some suggest it was a private killing
• Others have deeper suspicions
• Recently ruling party called for it to be probed
  by Presidential Truth Commission on Suspicious
  Deaths
• Set up by Kim Dae-jung to investigate deaths
  during military dictatorships
• Opposed by conservatives

13
One Seoul newspaper

• There has been a suspicion that some spy agents
  loyal to Roh and his predecessor Chun Doo-hwan
  had plotted the bombing to bounce back the
  popularity of the then ruling camp in the lead up
  to the 1987 presidential election. It was common
  for the past regimes in the South to use the
  North's potential military threat as a bait for
  the public to vote for the ruling party
  candidates, who argued they had strong and stable
  power to protect the country. The Supreme Court
  sentenced Kim Hyon-hee to death in March 1990.
  But Roh, the then head of state, gave her a
  special pardon the next month. In December 1997
  she married a secret agent who had guarded her.
  Many domestic media, including The Korea Times,
  had tried to contact her for an interview, but
  she declined. Her testimony is considered a key
  to solving the current controversy over the truth
  of the KAL accident because there has been a
  strong argument that Kim was not a North Korean
  spy at all.
• http//times.hankooki.com/lpage/200407/kt200407111
  7504912070.htm

14
Other implications

• The KAL bombing caused NK to be put on the the US
  government terrorism list
• That effectively debars NK from access to
  international financial agencies
• Removal from list is key NK demand

15
N-S Naval clashes

• Naval clashes a recurring issue
• Most frequent in West Sea in summer crab
  fishing
• Northern Limit Line (NLL)
• Unilateral US/SK demarcation line not negotiated
  with NK

16
Incident 29 June 2002

• Southern boat sunk, loss of life
• NK expresses regret
• Assumption that it was NKs fault
• Many said a deliberate provocation
• Anger over success of World Cup
• Other stories circulated in South suggested
• Southern fishing boats were being chased out of
  Northern waters
• SK naval boat rammed NK one which then opened
  fire and sank the SK warship
• http//www.kimsoft.com/2002/westsea2a.htm

17
Continuing source of friction

• N and S agree 15 June 2004 on 6 measures to
  prevent reoccurrence
• Radio communication with each other
• Refrain from physical actions
• Cooperate against third country (i.e. Chinese)
  poachers
• http//210.145.168.243/pk/206th_issue/2004061204.h
  tm

18
14 July incident

• SK navy claims
• NK boat crossed NLL
• SK fired warning shots when NK ship ignored
  warnings
• NK boat retreated
• http//times.hankooki.com/lpage/nation/200407/kt20
  04071422421611990.htm

19
NK belligerence?

• Yet another NK incursion and provocation?
• Yet another example of NK belligerence?
• Further proof that US needs to keep forces in SK
  to deter northern invasion?
• Pyongyang sent a telegram to Seoul
• Claimed NK ship chasing Chinese fishing boat
• It had sent three radio messages to Southern side

20
President Roh Moo-hyun furious

• SK navy admitted a cover up
• They had received radio messages
• Pres Roh orders investigation
• Why had navy acted in defiance of government
  policy?

21
Korea Times (Seoul)

• How the military could have made a false report
  on an incident that could have escalated into
  further armed clashes defies understanding.
• Particular emphasis should be placed on revealing
  whether this accident was intentionally caused by
  individuals disgruntled with the currently
  amicable military relationship between the two
  Koreas as some suspect
• http//times.hankooki.com/lpage/opinion/200407/kt2
  004071816241154050.htm

22
Healthy skepticism

• None of this proves that NK is in the right, or
  SK in the wrong
• Rangoon bombing of 1983 and Japanese abductions
  might be examples of NK security acting at odds
  with government policy
• Merely that we have to dig beneath the surface
  with healthy scepticism

23
Different political positions

• Focusing on nuclear confrontation between US and
  NK
• Sketch background

24
Nuclear power in East Asia

• SK and Japan both heavily dependent on nuclear
  power
• US forced SK to abandon weapons programme
• How long to resume?
• Japan can weaponise very quickly
• NK also needs nuclear power
• And nuclear weapons?

25
NK and nuclear weapons

• Three major questions
• When did programme start?
• What technologies are used?
• Has it/ Can it develop a deliverable nuclear
  weapon?
• Answers to all three very uncertain

26
First ethics and Proliferation

• No God-given reason why one country should have
  nuclear weapons and not another
• Practical and contingent reasons, not moral ones

27
Proliferation an absolute evil?

• No use, or danger of use, is the problem, not
  proliferation as such
• Proliferation may lessen the chances of nuclear
  weapons being used
• John Bolton, top US anti-proliferation official
  has long experience in opposing proliferation
• Worked with Jesse Helms to counter a voter
  registration drive on behalf of blacks and
  organized labor
• http//query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?resF30
  B10FB3E5C0C718CDDA00894DB404482

28
NPT

• Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty has two legs
• Non-nuclear states forgo nuclear weapons in
  exchange for help with nuclear power
• Nuclear-weapons states move towards disarmament
• Do not threaten NNWS with nuclear weapons
• Negative Security Assurances
• US position ambiguous

29
NK and NPT

• NK signed NPT under Soviet pressure in late 1980s
• Early 1990s the International Atomic Energy
  Agency (IAEA), using US information, concluded
  that NK might be extracting plutonium, which
  could be used for weapons
• Never been any direct evidence that any weapons
  have been, or can be, produced

30
Crisis of 93/94

• Clinton contemplating airstrike against NK
  reactor
• NK (conventional) relation would cause immense
  death and destruction in SK (and Americans there)
• SK opposition

31
Carter intervention June 1994

• Carter goes to Pyongyang
• He and Kim Il Sung draft agreement
• Carter out-manouevres White House by announcing
  this in CNN interview from Pyongyang
• WH has to accept principle gtgtAgreed Framework

32
Agreed Framework

• NK mothballed plutonium reactor
• US promised to arrange supply of two Light Water
  Reactors to replace it
• Funded mainly by SK, Japan..NZ
• When that happened plutonium reactor would be
  dismantled
• Provide heavy fuel oil to compensate for energy
  forgone
• Lift sanctions, move towards normalisation of
  relations. Formal security assurances

33
Postscript on Agreed Framework

• US negotiator Bob Gallucci and team just
  published defense of AF
• Going Critical The First North Korean Nuclear
  Crisis
• by Joel S. Wit, Daniel B. Poneman, and Robert L.
  Gallucci Brookings Institution Press, 2004
• Publishers blurb https//www.brookings.edu/press/
  books/goingcritical.htm
• Extract http//www.nautilus.org/fora/security/042
  4A_Wit.html
• Review http//www.nytimes.com/2004/07/20/books/20
  ALLI.html

34
Clinton to Bush

• Clinton lost control of Congress and much of AF
  was not implemented
• But AF still in existence, relations did move
  ahead under pressure from Kim Dae-jong
• Bush administration did not like AF
• ABC policy
• Anything But Clinton

35
Axis of Evil to HEU

• Axis of Evil speech, Nuclear Posture Review
  ratcheted pressure
• Oct 2002 Kelly visits Pyongyang
• Two allegations
• NK has an enriched uranium programme
• Indirect violation of AF
• Claims NK admits this
• NK has denied both
• Tends not to be reported in media

36
Collapse of AF

• US suspends HFU, thus abrogating only part of AF
  which had life
• NK withdraws from NPT
• Legal right to do that under clause X
• Reactivates reactor
• When US refuses to negotiate NK declares it will
  build a nuclear deterrent

37
Six Party talks

• China, SK, Russia and Japan all want a negotiated
  end to crisis
• China for one does not believe HEU allegations
• http//www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename
  articlecontentIdA60332-2004Jan6notFoundtrue
• So central ostensible reason for abandoning AF
  may not be true
• NK wants
• Security assurances
• Lifting of sanctions, removal from Terrorism
  List, and end to US constraining SK and JP
  developing relations with SK
• Oil, LWR
• Basically a variant of the AF

38
US position

• complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantling
  of nuclear programmes (CVID)
• Before it will allow SK and JP to provide energy
  assistance
• Slight cosmetic softening of position under
  pressure from
• Other Five parties
• Criticisms within US political system
• Pritchard to Kerry
• NK response cautious but not dismissive
• http//210.145.168.243/pk/206th_issue/2004062605.h
  tm

39
Unbridgeable differences?

• Round due in September cancelled
• Revelations about SK plutonium and enriched
  uranium
• Probably no substantial movement until after
  election
• However many factors
• Iraq, Iran,
• NK progress on weaponisation
• Kerrys reaction to that

40
Prospects

• Second term Bush MAY negotiate
• Sec of State Armitage replacement will be
  indication
• If no negotiation then
• Crisis continues
• DPRK has nuclear weapons
• If DPRK can retaliate against US then less chance
  of conflict
• Butexcuse/pressure on Japan (SK?) to go nuclear