Sound Science or Scientific Uncertainty

1
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Sound Science is currently a frequently used term
• Often used by government agency spokesman or
  member of Congress to describe the scientific
  research used to justify a claim or position
• Without context, sound science has no specific
  scientific definition as such, the phrase is
  used subjectively

2
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Lack of sound science is a common critique when
  attempting to discredit proposed policies
• Bush Administration touted Sound Science as the
  center piece of natural resource policy
• Peer-review
• Empirical Data
• Sound Science Caucus in House of Representatives
• August 2003, Office of Management and Budget
  proposed to increase role of peer-review in
  evaluation of scientific research conducted by
  federal agencies

3
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Clintons Executive Order 12866 required the use
  of the best scientific information when making
  policy decisions
• December 2000 Information Quality Act, all data
  disseminated by Federal agencies meet tests of
  quality, objectivity, utility, and integrity

4
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Some uses of Sound Science over time
• 1983 Dow Chemical used sound science to show
  that dioxin pollution in Michigan did not pose a
  human risk
• 1993 The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition
  to argue against regulation of secondhand smoke
• Funded by Phillip Morris
• Model most current opposition groups follow to
  discredit proposed policies or regulations
• 1994 Contract with America frequent use of
  sound science when describing reform of
  environmental regulations
• Office of Technology Assessment

5
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Some uses of Sound Science over time
• 1996 National Association of Manufacturers
  supported Bob Doles use of sound science
• 2001 Energy Task Force, open more of Alaska to
  oil drilling based on sound science and best
  available technology
• 2003, Responsible Industry for a Sound
  Environment, noted sound science in promoting
  pesticide use

6
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• No longer a concept, but rather a movement
• Introduce doubt into proposed regulatory policies
• Manufacture uncertainty
• Give outliers, skeptics, the same level support
  as peer-reviewed scientific results
• Hearings where Congress decide what position is
  more scientifically accurate
• Goal is to discredit scientists and scientific
  findings
• Under the guise of sound science, federal
  scientific agencies have been hamstrung by
  burdensome new obligations and effectively
  prevented from doing their jobs
• Weight of evidence
• Theory vs theory

7
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Weight of evidence
• Sound science is interpreted as a position that
  means requiring higher burden of proof before
  action can be taken to protect public health and
  the environment
• Not a scientific position
• Contrast to precautionary principal
• Accumulation of information to support a proposed
  solution to an issue should be the preferred
  approach.
• Theory vs theory

8
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• When considering the use of science in
  formulation of policy, you must recognize
  uncertainty
• Uncertainty over the magnitude of environmental
  problems, causes, and future impacts needs to be
  considered in policy
• Not to be used as an excuse not to make rational
  policy decisions

9
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Scientific uncertainty is the defining feature of
  natural resource policy
• Certainty may come too late to design optimal
  legal and policy responses
• Use incomplete information to make todays
  decisions to address tomorrows issues
• Use of estimates and preponderance of evidence

10
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Role of mitigation
• Ecological function, needs
• Cause of issue/problem
• Simplistic
• Complex interaction among multiple environmental
  impacts, cumulative actions
• Salmon which action is most damaging? Silt,
  dams, overfishing, hatchery fish, water use,
  drought, pollution, predation

11
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Address all impacts or determine which one is
  most detrimental and only address that one
• Frequently solve one impact causes problems
  elsewhere
• Overwhelming question do we wait until we have
  better information or take early action in face
  of potentially serious threats
• Both imposes costs

12
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• How to act in face of uncertainty
• Develop better information
• Precautionary principal used in international
  environmental law change burden of proof from
  those challenging offending activity to those
  wishing to commence activity
• Adaptive Resource Management
• AHM

13
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Rational model to policy assumes clear goals that
  are agreed upon by all complete and reliable
  data problems defined range of policy options
  identified effects are understood and
  predictable and final choices maximize
  previously stated goals
• Incremental model to policy have unclear goals in
  conflict missing information or unreliable
  options poorly defined or ignored piecemeal
  policy

14
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Move toward rational model through use of
  analyses risk and economic
• Need to be able to compare and contrast problems,
  issues, and choices
• Risk Assessment
• Many books
• Journal Human and Ecological Risk Assessment
• Usually related to chemicals, but other impacts
  are being assessed using these procedures

15
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Concept of risk is central to environmental
  policy
• Environmental problem risk (possibility of
  suffering harm)
• 2 dimensions
• Probability or likelihood of harm
• Severity of harm
• Defined as the probability of harm multiplied by
  its consequences

16
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Natural Resource policy makers work in 2
  categories of risk
• Harm to human health
• Acute (immediate) and chronic (long-term)
• Debate usually centers on chronic because of
  uncertainty about source of problems or if exists
• Harm to ecological resources
• Environmental protection usually thought of as
  ecological risks but health and ecological risks
  overlap
• Greater variety of life affected, wide range of
  impacts, many different scales (assess risk at
  each)

17
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Risk assessment mostly in health arena, but
  ecological assessment is growing as more
  information becomes available
• Perceptions of risk results from where people get
  their information. Perception influences views.
• Need education for an accurate understanding of
  risk
• A gap between science and lay public

18
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Ecological risk assessment is the practice of
  determining the nature and likelihood of effects
  of actions on animals, plants, and environment
• Deals with human-caused changes
• Risks can be local (landfill), regional
  (estuary), or global (climate change)
• Scale is important to recognize risk to
  species, community, ecosystem, or biome

19
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Risk Assessment
• Organizes information and contributes to informed
  decisions
• Highlights greatest risks
• Typically involves modeling scenarios
• Explicitly identifies environmental values and
  functions of concern
• Identifies knowledge gaps

20
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Risk Assessment Steps
• Clearly define the problem
• Analysis of potential impacts
• Rating the risks of potential impacts
• Part of the decision-making process
• End point also considers analysis results, costs,
  availability of technology, legal mandates,
  political issues, ecological values and
  stakeholder concerns

21
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Use of a policy to protect against risks to human
  health will not necessarily protect the
  environment
• Ecologically, sensitivity to impacts may be
  greater than for humans
• People do not interact with environment like
  other species
• Risk assessments with proper scientific review
  and consensus provide the best summary of
  knowledge and leads to sound policy in the face
  of uncertainty

22
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Use of a policy to protect against risks to human
  health will not necessarily protect the
  environment
• Ecologically, sensitivity to impacts may be
  greater than for humans
• People do not interact with environment like
  other species
• In comparison, people are most concerned about
  health risks that are unknown, dreaded, or seen
  as catastrophic so tend to make precautionary
  policy with human health
• Whereas to quote a congressman environmental
  laws should be made with great caution and demand
  a high degree of scientific certainty

23
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Risk assessment is presented as technical or
  value-free side of policy
• Cannot separate from politics in practice
• Process is full of uncertainty and assumptions
• Series of decisions, usually most protective
  choices are made for health but not for
  environment
• Principal of prudent policy assumes the worst
  when there is uncertainty about health risks but
  not about ecological risks

24
Sound Science orScientific Uncertainty

• Risk assessments with proper scientific review
  and consensus provide the best summary of
  knowledge and leads to sound policy in the face
  of uncertainty
• Policy makers must clearly communicate the risks
  and decisions to the public
• Summarize the results so that the public can
  understand them
• Distinguish scientific conclusions from policy
  judgments
• Describe major differences of opinion on
  scientific issues or alternative conclusions that
  readers can draw from the data
• Explain major assumptions and uncertainties