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A Briefing on Spring-2005 Atmospheric River Data Collection Activities

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Title: A Briefing on Spring-2005 Atmospheric River Data Collection Activities


1
A Briefing on Spring-2005 Atmospheric RiverData
Collection Activities
Presented on 8-Mar-05 by Paul J.
Neiman1 Prepared by P.J. Neiman1, F.M. Ralph1,
G.A. Wick1, D.E. Kingsmill2 1NOAA/ETL
2NOAA/CIRES
NOAA P-3 Research Aircraft
General Atomics Altair UAV
2
Outline and Contacts
  • Presentation Outline
  • Motivation
  • Background
  • Expectations
  • Flight Planning
  • Weather Forecasting
  • Concluding Slide

Key NOAA Contacts
Weather-Climate Connection Marty Ralph
(ETL) Randy Dole (CDC) Bill Neff (ETL) Jeff
Whitaker (CDC) Paul Neiman (ETL)
Spring 2005 Hawaii P-3 Campaign David Kingsmill
(CIRES) Dave Jorgensen (NSSL) Paul Neiman
(ETL) Gary Wick (ETL) Bob Zamora (ETL)
Spring 2005 Altair UAV Demo Mike Aslaksen
(NOS) Sara Summers (FSL) David Fahey (AL) Al
Gasiewski (ETL) Brad Kearse (NMAO)
3
Motivation
Motivation
4
Russian River, CA Flood Event
Russian River, CA Flood Event of 18-Feb-04
Atmospheric River generates flooding
CZD
Russian River flooding in Monte Rio,
California 18 February 2004
IWV (cm)
GPS IWV data from near CZD 14-20 Feb 2004
Bodega Bay
Atmospheric river
IWV (cm)
IWV (inches)
Cloverdale
photo courtesy of David Kingsmill
10 rain at CZD in 48 hours
5
La Conchita, CA Debris-flow Disaster of 10-Jan-05
La Conchita, CA Debris-flow Disaster of 10-Jan-05
Atmospheric river on 9 Jan 2005
Fatal mudslides and floods on 10 Jan 2005
IWV (cm)
IWV (cm)
Atmospheric River GPS IWV traces coastal zone S.
California 4-day duration of S. CA 2-3 ft of rain
in San Gabriel Mtns foothills Fatal mudslides
1400 UTC 7 1400 UTC 11 Jan05
6
Background
Background
7
Zhu Newell 1998 Model diagnostic study using
the ECMWF
Zhu Newell 1998 Model diagnostic study using
the ECMWF
  • Atmos. rivers contain 95 of meridional water
    vapor flux at 35 latitude,
  • but in lt10 of the zonal circumference.
  • Observational studies (Ralph et al. 2004, 2005
    following slides) confirm
  • model results.

8
CALJET study of low-level jet atmospheric
riverDropsonde data from NOAA P-3 research
aircraft
  • CALJET study of low-level jet atmospheric river
  • Dropsonde data from NOAA P-3 research aircraft

9
Winter season SSM/I satellite analysis
methodology19 November 1997 24 March 1998
Winter season SSM/I satellite analysis
methodology 19 November 1997 24 March 1998
Atmos. River
Atmos. River
10
Ralph et al. (2004), Mon. Wea. Rev.
(Atmospheric River)
  • 75 of total observed flux was within a 600 km
    wide zone 4 km deep (1.5 x 108 kg s-1 of
    meridional flux)
  • A methodology was developed to identify IWV
    plumes in SSM/I data (used as a proxy for atmos.
    rivers)
  • Using 312 satellite baselines, 75 of the IWV was
    confined to a zone 415 across
  • Maximum IWVs in the river core are nearly
    uncorrelated with IWVs just 150 km away. GOES
    IWV data are normally absent in this core region.
  • GOES CTT CTP, together with nearly coincident
    SSM/I IWV data, reveal that colder and higher
    cloud tops are associated with rivers having
    greater IWV content

11
Offshore soundings in the pre-cold-frontal LLJ
17 total
12
Representative storm-relative position
13
Summary Schematic
  • Composite sounding located 500 km off CA coast in
    atmos. river pre-cold-frontal LLJ
  • LLJ directed toward coast and situated at 1 km
    MSL
  • Most (75) of pre-cold-frontal along-river
    moisture flux is below 2.5 km MSL
  • Moist neutral stratification below 2.8 km MSL,
    hence no resistance to orographic lifting
  • Overlapping set of conditions conducive to
    orographic rain enhancement in coastal mtns
    (future work will connect atmos. rivers to
    coastal rainfall/runoff)
  • Ralph et al. (2005), Mon. Wea. Rev.

Atmospheric River
14
Expectations
Expectations
15
What to expect this spring
What to expect for this spring?
Atmospheric River
Hawaii
Tropical Protuberance
Hawaii
16
What we hope to accomplish
  • NOAA P-3
  • Expand sample size of dropsondes in atmospheric
    rivers assess natural variability
  • New geographic location
  • latitude close to tropical IWV reservoir rather
    than in midlatitudes
  • longitude central Pacific rather than eastern
    Pacific
  • Learn about structure of tropical protuberances
    north wall of tropical IWV reservoir
  • Explore entrainment of tropical IWV into
    midlatitude atmospheric rivers
  • Data comparison with model simulations of
    atmospheric rivers
  • Altair UAV
  • Technology demonstration for unmanned aerial
    vehicles
  • First major applications test of a high-altitude,
    long-endurance aircraft for NOAA
  • NOAA testing potential for UAVs to bridge
    observational gaps over remote locales (e.g.,
    oceans and poles) for research and operational
    applications

17
Flight Planning
Flight Planning
18
NOAA P-3 target from Honolulu, Hawaii
Atmospheric River
NOAA P-3 target from Honolulu, Hawaii
Atmospheric River
16-Feb-04 IWV (cm)
Flight information Dates 20 Mar. to 9
Apr. Number of flights 3 Cruising Alt 6
km Cruising speed 130 m/s Duration 9.0-9.5
h Range 4500 km Instrumentation Dropsondes
channels 4 descent time 7 min
resolution gt60km 1-s flight-level LF
radar Tail Doppler radar
Atmospheric River
Hawaii
NOAA P-3 domain 1500 km radius
SSM/I IWV (cm)
19
Atmospheric River Flight Strategy 1 Double
Dropsonde Curtain
Atmospheric River Flight Strategy 1 Double
Dropsonde Curtain
16-Feb-04 IWV (cm)
NOAA P-3 domain 1500 km radius
1000 km dropsonde curtains 18-20
dropsondes/curtain lt40 total 60 km
spacing Flight altitude 6 km
SSM/I IWV (cm)
Hawaii
1. P-3 speed 130 m/s. 2. 7 min for dropsonde to
reach ocean from 6 km MSL. 3. 60 km minimum
horizontal dropsonde resolution.
20
Atmospheric River Flight Strategy 2 Long
Dropsonde Curtain
Atmospheric River Flight Strategy 2 Long
Dropsonde Curtain
1500 km dropsonde curtain 22-25 dropsondes 60 km
spacing inner 1000 km 100 km spacing
remainder Flight altitude 6 km
16-Feb-04 IWV (cm)
NOAA P-3 domain 1500 km radius
SSM/I IWV (cm)
Hawaii
1. P-3 speed 130 m/s. 2. 7 min for dropsonde to
reach ocean from 6 km MSL. 3. 60 km minimum
horizontal dropsonde resolution.
21
Atmospheric River Flight Strategy 3 Low-Level
Transect Dropsonde Curtain
Atmospheric River Flight Strategy 3 Low-Level
Transect Dropsonde Curtain
16-Feb-04 IWV (cm)
NOAA P-3 domain 1500 km radius
1200 km dropsonde curtain 20 dropsondes 60 km
spacing Flight altitude 6 km MSL
Low-level transect at 1 km MSL
SSM/I IWV (cm)
Hawaii
Spiral ascent to 6 km MSL
1. P-3 speed 130 m/s. 2. 7 min for dropsonde to
reach ocean from 6 km MSL. 3. 60 km minimum
horizontal dropsonde resolution.
22
NOAA P-3 target from Honolulu, Hawaii Tropical
protuberance
NOAA P-3 target from Honolulu, Hawaii Tropical
protuberance
Flight information Dates 20 Mar. to 9
Apr. Number of flights 1 Cruising Alt 6
km Cruising speed 130 m/s Duration 9.0-9.5
h Range 4500 km Instrumentation Dropsondes
channels 4 descent time 7 min
resolution gt60km 1-s flight-level LF
radar Tail Doppler radar
3-Feb-05 IWV (cm)
Tropical Protuberance
Hawaii
NOAA P-3 domain 1500 km radius
SSM/I IWV (cm)
23
Tropical Protuberance Flight Strategy The
Figure-4 Dropsonde Pattern
Tropical Protuberance Flight Strategy The
Figure-4 Dropsonde Pattern
3-Feb-05 IWV (cm)
NOAA P-3 domain 1500 km radius
1000-1400 km legs
SSM/I IWV (cm)
Hawaii
10-14 dropsondes per leg 100 km spacing 45
total. Flight altitude 6 km
1. P-3 speed 130 m/s. 2. 7 min for dropsonde to
reach ocean from 6 km MSL. 3. 60 km minimum
horizontal dropsonde resolution.
24
Altair UAV Conceptual Flight Track Target -
Atmospheric Rivers
Altair UAV Conceptual Flight Track Target -
Atmospheric Rivers
Flight information Dates 1-22 April Number of
flights 2 Cruising Alt 14 km Cruising speed
100 m/s Duration 12h, 21h Range 7000 km
for 21h Instrumentation Passive
microwave vertical sounder provides coarse vert.
res. temp. and moisture profiles and cloud liquid
water1.
16 Feb 04 IWV
1600 km leg
Atmos. River
Edwards AFB (EDW)
35N
Max. range limit from EDW 3500 km
21-h flight
25N
Hawaii
15N
1See the following slide for a more complete
description of the UAV goals and instrumentation
5N
150W
140W
130W
120W
110W
IWV (cm)
25
Altair UAV The final integrated sensor package
and operational goals consists of the following
  • Combined ozone photometer and gas chromatograph
    instrument
  • Demonstrate the smallest airborne 2 channel gas
    chromatograph and it capabilities of measuring up
    to twelve different trace gases that are
    important in climate change, stratospheric ozone
    depletion, and air quality.
  • Ocean Color and Passive Microwave Vertical
    Sounder
  • (1) Determine the capability to calibrate
    spaceborne ocean color sensors in near-coastal
    areas. Coastal areas are difficult to observe
    from space due to the influence of land on the
    broad footprints of satellites.
  • (2) Determine the impact of clouds on spaceborne
    ocean color sensors data. The UAV can fly
    underneath cloud cover to provide calibrated
    ocean color data with which to intercompare with
    satellite sensors.
  • (3) Determine the capability to detect water
    vapor jets and quantize their moisture flux prior
    to landfall. Measurement of moisture flux and
    structure is key to predicting precipitation and
    flood potential at landfall.
  • Airborne Maritime Surveillance Electro
    Optical/Infrared (EOIR) Gyro Stabilized Imaging
    Sensor
  • (1) Determine the capability and cost benefits of
    a UAV with a Maritime Surveillance EOIR sensor
    for fishery and marine sanctuary enforcement
    especially in remote areas.
  • (2) Determine the capability and cost benefits of
    a combination Maritime Surveillance EOIR sensor
    for detecting and positively identifying marine
    mammals both in the water and on land for habitat
    and migration research.
  • (3) Determine the capability and cost benefits of
    a UAV with a Maritime Surveillance EOIR sensor
    for determining the location of commercial and
    recreational fishing vessels for research
    correlating fish stocks and coral reef damage.
  • Direct Geo-referenced Digital Camera
  • (1) Determine the capability and cost benefits of
    a UAV equipped with a Direct Geo-referenced
    Digital Camera to gather data to accurately
    determine and assess the composition of both the
    marine and terrestrial resources in remote areas.
  • (2) Determine the capability and cost benefits of
    a UAV equipped with a Direct Geo-referenced
    Digital Camera to gather data to determine the
    application for shoreline mapping and near shore
    bathymetry in remote areas.
  • Research Environment for Vehicle-Embedded
    Analysis on Linux (REVEAL) system
  • The REVEAL system as tested is a flexible plug
    play sensor acquisition and processing system
    complete with an internal sensor suite and local
    area network hardware, and an open
    standards-based software framework for building
    dynamically reconfigurable network-centric
    vehicle- and environmental-monitoring systems.

26
Satellite Validation
Satellite Validation As a secondary objective,
try to coordinate P-3 and UAV flights with SSM/I,
AMSR, AMSU, and TRMM satellite overpasses
27
Weather Forecasting
Weather Forecasting
28
Weather Forecasting Procedure
  • gt2 days prior to anticipated flight Local
    forecaster (Paul Neiman/Bob Zamora) will look for
    atmospheric river and tropical protuberance
    signatures near Hawaii in GFS model
  • 1 day prior to anticipated flight
  • local forecaster will look at GFS model and
    GOES/POES satellite imagery
  • coordination call with Hon. WFO at 0945 MST
    (0645 HST) after 12z models in
  • contact chief scientist (CS) in Hon. regarding
    possible flight... get OK
  • create tentative flight plan using Dave
    Jorgensens F-Plan program
  • email flight-plan file to CS
  • Day of anticipated flight
  • local forecaster will look at GFS model and
    GOES/POES satellite imagery
  • coordination call with Hon. WFO at 0945 MST
    (0645 HST) after 12z models in
  • contact CS in Hon. for yes/no decision. If yes,
    tweak flight plan as needed
  • Take-off time will be 0900-1100 HST flight
    duration 9.0 hours
  • email latest SSM/I IWV images and other pertinent
    info to CS during flight

29
What to look for when forecasting
What to look for when forecasting? Examine
synoptic composite analyses based on conditions
when atmospheric rivers and tropical protuberances
are in our general domain of interest.
70 atmospheric river days 57 tropical
protuberance days
30
Synoptic composite analyses integrated water
vapor (cm)
Synoptic composite analyses Integrated water
vapor (cm)
AR atmospheric river composite
TP tropical protuberance
AR mean
TP mean
Hawaii
31
925 mb Geopotential heights (m)
925 mb Geopotential heights (m)
TP mean
AR mean
H
H
H
H
TP anom
AR anom



_
_
32
925 mb Meridional wind speed (m/s)
925 mb Meridional wind speed (m/s)
TP mean
AR mean
33
500 mb Geopotential heights (m)
500 mb Geopotential heights (m)
AR mean
TP mean
TP anom
AR anom


_
_
34
600 mb Vertical velocity (m/s lt0 is ascent)
600 mb Vertical velocity (m/s lt0 is ascent)
AR mean
TP mean
UP
UP
UP
UP
UP
DN
DN
DN
DN
UP
35
Rainrate (mm/h)
Rainrate (mm/h)
TP mean
AR mean
36
Last Winter Today
Last Winter
Today
37
Concluding Slide
Concluding Slide
Data collected from the NOAA P-3 and Altair UAV
aircraft will be analyzed to gain a greater
understanding of the structural characteristics
of atmospheric rivers across a broad
latitude/longitude domain over the Pacific Ocean,
and to better assess the role of these rivers in
transporting latent and sensible heat poleward
from the tropics and in contributiing to
flooding along the U.S. West Coast
References of atmospheric rivers material used in
this presentation Ralph, F.M., P.J. Neiman, and
R. Rotunno, 2005 Dropsonde Observations in
Low-Level Jets Over the Northeastern Pacific
Ocean from CALJET-1998 and PACJET-2001 Mean
Vertical-Profile and Atmospheric-River
Characteristics. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, in
press. Ralph, F.M., P.J. Neiman, and G.A. Wick,
2004 Satellite and CALJET aircraft observations
of atmospheric rivers over the eastern
North-Pacific Ocean during the winter of 1997/98.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1721-1745. Zhu, Y., R.E.
Newell, 1998 A proposed algorithm for moisture
fluxes from atmospheric rivers. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
126, 725-735. Additional references related to
atmospheric rivers Bao, J.-W., S.A. Michelson,
P.J. Neiman, F.M. Ralph, and J.M. Wilczak, 2005
Interpretation of enhanced integrated water-vapor
bands associated with extratropical cyclones
Their formation and connection to tropical
moisture. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, accepted pending
revisions. Neiman, P.J., F.M. Ralph, A.B. White,
D.A. Kingsmill, and P.O.G. Persson, 2002 The
statistical relationship between upslope flow and
rainfall in Californias coastal mountains
Observations during CALJET. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130,
1468-1492.
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