Title: Peak Oil and Global Warming: Issues related by solutions
1Peak Oil and Global Warming Issues related by
solutions?
2Quick Definitions
- Peak Oil (PO) when demand for oil exceeds
production rate - Global Warming (GW) increase in Earths average
air temperature over a period of several
centuries - Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) proportion
of GW caused by human interference in Geocycles - 0 ? 100 ? 30 ? 70 ? .?
3Weird Weather?
- 1/11 First snow in Baghdad in a century
4What happens to the inside of your car on sunny
day when you have the windows shut?
5Greenhouse Effect
- Sunlight passes through clear atmosphere with
little interference, it hits Earths surface,
then
6Greenhouse Effect
- A portion of it is reflected back (albedo),
passes back through atmosphere and into space,
but - The rest is absorbed, which warms the surface
and this heat is given off as infrared radiation
(IR)
7Greenhouse Effect
- Some of the IR doesnt pass through the
atmosphere back into space but instead gets
scattered by Greenhouse gases (H2O and CO2
mainly), which then warms the atmosphere.
8Greenhouse Effect
9The Greenhouse Effect
- Is a good thing
- Life as we know it couldnt survive without it!
10But too much of good thing is a bad thing
- An enhanced Greenhouse Effect caused by excess
Greenhouse gases - We need to leave the windows cracked at bit! ?
11Carbon Dioxide
- Is the most variable of the Greenhouse gases
- and the one that human activities can
(possibly) influence - Back to this in few minutes
12Global Climate Change has occurred over Earths
History
- Some of this change is secular, and some is cyclic
13The Last 100 Ma Secular Cooling
14Last six million years Cyclical warm-cool
patterns with overall secular cooling
15Last million years Cyclical Pattern with Ice
Ages lt---gt Warm Periods
- Note Were in a warm interglacial period now
16What causes these cyclic changes in temperature?
- Milankovic Cycles (reading!) 10s of thousands
of years time frame - Solar output variation both short long term
- Solar cycles, sunspots, decades
- Increased core fusion Secular, over millions of
years - A lot to still be learned - remember scientists
dont everything about everything, and
uncertainty is always part of the game - but
this doesnt mean theyre making it up!
17Annual Layers in Ice Cores Like Tree Rings
- This is from the Greenland ice sheet and records
38 years about 16 Ka ago - Air bubbles are also trapped in the layers ? can
analyze ancient atmospheric gases
18Correlation of CO2 with Ice Ages and Warm Periods
geology chemistry
19Recent CO2 changes
20Very Recent CO2 Data
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22Climate change can also be rapid a warning
for us?
- The Younger Dryas event 12,000 years ago - a
very rapid global cooling over 1,300 years - 27 oC drop in average temp
23Other indicators that GW is occurring
- Physical evidence, rather than computer models
24Excess Greenland Glacial Retreat
25Surface Temperature Anomalies
26Large Storm Systems
27IPCC Computer Models
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
- These models are controversial and vary greatly,
but their estimates for global warming in this
century are - Minimum 1.1 oC
- Maximum 6.4 oC
28What Human activities might increase atmospheric
CO2 (and thus cause AGW) ?
- Among other things
- Burning fossil carbon and
- Destroying ecosystems that absorb CO2
29Is Human Activity contributing to this recent
increase in atmospheric CO2 ?
- Is AGW significant???
- If so, what should we do about it?
30Reducing Carbon fuel use is part of the AGW
solution
- But this fits perfectly with another nasty (and
more imminent) problem Peak Oil!
31Peak Oil
- What is it?
- What does it have to do with Global Warming?
32Recent news1/16/8
- Bush hopes OPEC will raise production
- Whats production?
- OPEC accounts for 40 of oil production
33Theres always more
- Isnt there?
- Conservation Psychology
- Dr. Seely, April 16
34What is Oil?
- Also know as crude oil or Petroleum, rock oil
- Its a type of fossil fuel
- A non-renewable resource
35Terminology
- Resource
- Renewable, Potentially Renewable, Non-Renewable
- Oil is non-renewable
- Reserves
- Discovery
- Production
36Reserves
- Natural resources have reserves that is the
amount that is available for extraction with
current technology at a profit - For oil, profit also means both a monetary profit
and an energy profit
37Economic issues are involved in reserves
- Two types of ROI (Return On Investment)
- Monetary ROI (do you make a profit?)
- EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested)
- Oil averages about 5 to 1 right now
- Corn alcohol is about 1.6 to 1
38Discovery of a resource
- Definition is pretty obvious
39Discovery of a resource
- Requires investment in exploration
- Unless youre Jed Clampett
40Production
- Amount of resource extracted from Earth, per day
or per year - Oil is measured in barrels (bbl)
- 1 bbl 42 gallons
- Global oil production was 82.5 million bbl per
day in 2005 - 63 million in 1980
- 65.5 million in 1990
- 76 million in 2000
41How Oil Forms
42How oil forms
- Dead plankton accumulate on the ocean floor
during times when the oceanic circulation stops
and the bottom of the ocean goes anoxic - Thousands of feet of this material accumulates
- Then it is buried by other sediments
43How oil forms
- As the sediment is buried deeper, the temperature
rises cooking the organic rich shales, like the
oil shales in the Rockies - This cooking releases oil from the rock
44How oil forms
- Pressure fractures the source rock allowing the
oil to float up because oil is less dense than
water - The oil will float up until it hits a place where
some impermeable upper rock layer or cap won't
let it pass the overall structure is called a
trap.
45Geology of a typical oil deposit
46M. King Hubbert
- He was a geophysicist who in the 1950s
- Predicted an absolute maximum or peak in oil
production around 2004-2008 often referred to
as Hubberts Peak - Heres his model
47Hubberts Production Peak
48Peak Oil
- Occurs when the demand (consumption) for oil
equals or exceeds peak production
49Oily Facts
- Global oil consumption was 83.6 million barrels
per day in 2005 - 20 million bbl/day in 1960
- 60 million bbl/day in 1980
- At current rate of increase, will be 120 million
in 2020 - So far, production has been able to meet demand
can this continue??? - See figure 1 in the Morton article
50Discovery Trends
51Global Oil Production
- Will eventually reach a maximum
- At which time, demand for oil will equal
production rate ( Peak Oil) - The result?
- Very high prices, and even more importantly
- Shortages ask your parents about 1973
- Ultimately this will lead to economic recession
52The four most productive oil fields
- Al Ghawar, Saudi Arabia 4.5 million barrels/day
(5 global total) - Cantarell, Mexico 2.1 million (2)
- Burgan, Kuwait 1 million (1)
- Da Qing, China 1 million (1)
- Only one of these was discovered after 1960 ---
Cantarell in 1976
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54New Oil exploration?
- The annual exploration cost for the 10 companies
as a group exceeded the estimated value of annual
new discoveries made in both 2001 and 2002 a
reversal from previous years - In spite of high prices, Big Oil companies have
cut their exploration budgets - This would be bizarre from a pure business
standpoint, UNLESS they thought there was little
chance of finding large deposits
55Oil found by exploration drill bit (billions of
barrels)
- 1997 4.5
- 1998 5.8
- 1999 9.5
- 2000 13.05
- 2001 4.02
- 2002 3.34
- Bear in mind that we consume (demand) over 30
billion per year!
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57Is ANWR the solution?
58Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
- Has been a political football for over a decade
- Should its oil supply be exploited or not?
- Environmental damage vs. U.S oil independence
Environmentalists vs. the Economy Ye Olde
Warfare model
59ANWRs Reserve Estimates
- Low estimate 4.3 billion barrels (95
probability) - High estimate 11.8 billion barrels (5
probability) - The high estimate is a bit more than the U.S.
consumes in one year! - Well, its nice that its there, but it doesnt
seem to be a long-term solution to U.S. energy
independence
60Peak Oil Analogy
- Production Rate and Inheriting a Fortune
61Analogy
- Suppose you were given a billion dollars in
special bank account, but - Could withdraw only 100 a day indefinitely
- Would you still be a billionaire?
- Analogous to oil --- maybe a trillion barrels of
molecules left in ground (resource), but - Theres a maximum rate that it can be withdrawn
(produced)
62Epilogue page 1
- The oil crisis and AGW have a similar solution
replacing carbon fuels with potentially renewable
energy resources
63Epilogue page 2
- This solution will entail some compromises,
including personal energy conservation and even
(shudder) nuclear fission which is the only
energy source that can replace the sheer amount
of energy of oil in the short term
64Epilogue page 3
- Ultimately, we need to mimic the way the Sun
makes its energy - Hydrogen fusion - At the present there is no technology to do this,
and maybe there will never be - And Hydrogen bombs dont count, remember Core 5
65Websites
- www.oilcrisis.com/summary.htm
- www.theoildrum.com
- The most comprehensive source for the Peak Oil
issue - Glenn Mortons pages