Why Mid Size Cities Grow and What It Means for Chattanooga

1
Why Mid Size Cities Grow and What It Means for
Chattanooga

• David R. Eichenthal
• Community Research Council, Inc.
• Brookings Institution Center on Metropolitan
  Policy
• September 30, 2005

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Community Research Council

• Created in 1960s as an arm of the local United
  Way, with a focus on social service planning
• Now, premiere source of independent policy and
  data research and analysis in Chattanooga region
• Focus on community and economic development,
  crime, health, urban governance and youth and
  education

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The Importance of Midsize Cities

• More urban residents live in more cities like
  Chattanooga than in larger cities
• In 2000, 22.9 million people lived in the 9
  cities with a population of greater than one
  million
• 24.3 million people lived in the 49 cities with a
  population of between 300,000 and 1,000,000
• 28.8 million people lived in the 185 cities with
  a population of between 100,000 and 300,000

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Chattanooga, Tennessee

• Tennessees fourth largest city with a population
  of 155,000
• Largest city in Hamilton County population of
  310,000
• Largest city in Chattanooga MSA 465,000
• Some also think of Chattanooga as the largest
  city in North Georgia Chattanooga would be
  Georgias fourth largest city as well

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Chattanoogas Changing Population

• In 1940, Chattanooga was the nations 66th
  largest city with a population of 128,000
• Sixty years later, Chattanoogas population is
  actually higher approximately 155,000 but is
  now ranked 132nd among all U.S. cities in
  population
• Between 1990 and 2000, Chattanoogas population
  grew by just 2.

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Population and Density in Chattanooga

• In 1940, the City of Chattanooga contained just
  27.4 square miles of land river to ridge
• Today, Chattanooga spreads across 143 square
  miles.
• Geographically, Chattanooga is larger than
  Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore,
  Washington and Boston.
• My hometown, Brooklyn, N.Y., has one-third fewer
  square miles than Chattanooga.

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Population and Density in Chattanooga

• While too much growth could lead to
  Atlantapopulation growth, especially
  repopulation of the Downtown, makes sense.
• If Downtown Chattanoogas population returned to
  its 1940 level and density levels were
  maintained in the rest of the city
  Chattanoogas population would increase to
  261,966 and place it among the nations 70
  largest cities again.

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What Makes Mid-Size Cities Grow?

• If, in fact, it would be a good thing for more
  people to live in Chattanooga, it begs the
  question what makes cities grow?
• Focused on Edward Glaesers analysis of all U.S.
  cities of more than 100,000
• Resident income and education the higher the
  education and income level, the more likely it is
  for cities to grow
• Sector employment cities with large
  manufacturing bases grew more slowly than those
  with strong service industries
• Auto dependent cities grew, while pedestrian and
  mass transit dependent cities shrank
• Foreign born residents contributed to strong
  growth rates

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What Makes Mid Size Cities Grow?

• Glaeser was looking at all U.S. cities greater
  than 100,000
• CRC has initiated research focused on mid-size
  cities, defined as those that were between
  100,000 and 300,000 in population at the time of
  the 2000 Census
• One immediate difference Mid size cities
  actually grew faster an average of 14.7 --
  between 1990 and 2000, compared to 9.8 for all
  cities

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What Makes Mid Size Cities Grow?

• Population growth in 75 mid size cities exceeded
  15
• CRC examined the role that 4 factors played in
  the growth of these cities proximity, Latino
  migration, educational attainment and annexation
• One or more of these factors was present in 71
  out of 75 cities

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Proximity to Large MSAs

• In 47 out of 75 fast growing midsize cities, the
  city was within 50 miles of the center of one of
  the nations 25 largest MSAs
• For example, 14 were within 50 miles of Los
  Angeles
• These cities were largely in the way of sprawl
  from larger cities at the core
• No city, however, grew solely because of proximity

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Latino Population

• 45 of the 75 fastest growing cities had a Latino
  population of greater than 12.5, the national
  average.
• In 28 cities, the Latino population was actually
  more than double the national average.
• In 3 fast growing cities -- Laredo and
  Brownsville, Texas and Hialeah, Fla. -- Latinos
  now make up more than 90 of the population.
• In the case of three cities, higher than average
  Latino population was the only one of the four
  factors present.

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Annexation/Consolidation

• For 15 out of 75 fast growing cities, the
  percentage of land area growth exceeded the
  percentage of population growth.
• For example, Augusta Georgias 347.5 increase in
  population is explained by its consolidation with
  Richmond County in 1996.
• In two cities, land area growth was the only one
  of four factors present

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Educational Attainment

• Just under half 37 of the fastest growing
  cities have a higher percentage of population
  over 25 with a B.A. or more than the national
  average of 24.4.
• In most 21 out of the 37 these cities were in
  the nations top 25 MSAs. These mid size cities
  were more like upper income suburbs than
  traditional cities.
• But, in 10 cities, educational attainment was the
  only one of the factors present.

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Educational Attainment

• In these ten cities, high levels of educational
  attainment may be the principal explanation for
  population growth.

• Provo
• Boise
• Chesapeake
• Eugene
• Raleigh
• Durham
• Columbia
• Lexington
• Overland Park
• Lafayette

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Educational Attainment
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What Does It Mean for Chattanooga and Other
Midsize Cities?

• Each of these four factors can play a role in
  Chattanoogas future growth and some already are.
• Major MSA Proximity
• Latino Population Growth
• Geographic Expansion
• Educational Attainment

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Major MSA Proximity

• While Chattanooga cant move closer to Atlanta,
  the importance of MSA proximity has already
  spurred interest in a high speed rail connection
  between the two cities.

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Latinos

• One of the most underreported phenomena taking
  place in our community is an exponential growth
  in the Latino population.
• Between 1990 and 2000, Chattanoogas Latino
  population tripled. The growth in Latino
  population accounted for 75 of the growth in
  overall population.

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Latinos

• Between 2001 and 2004, the number of Latino
  children in Hamilton County public schools
  doubled.
• Based on EEO data, the number of Latinos employed
  in the Chattanooga region increased by 75
  between 1999 and 2003
• Finally, the number of births to Latino mothers
  in Hamilton County increased by 8.7 between 2001
  and 2003. Notably, this occurred as the number
  of births to African American mothers was
  declining.
• There is every reason to believe that by 2010,
  Latinos will comprise at least 10 of the Citys
  population.

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Geographic Expansion

• This is precisely how Chattanooga has grown in
  population over the last 40 years. In March 2006,
  there is a new opportunity for Chattanooga to
  expand in this way.
• Chattanooga can annex a significant part of
  unincorporated Hamilton County that could add as
  many as 20-30,000 new residents.
• Of course, further expansion of the city limits
  would further reduce population density.
• In addition to annexation, geographic expansion
  could also be achieved through consolidation with
  Hamilton County and creation of a Metro
  Chattanooga.

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Educational Attainment How Does It Happen?

• The percentage of Chattanoogans with a college
  degree increased from 18.2 in 1990 to 21.5 in
  2000.
• Educational attainment rates increase in two
  ways
• Imports
• Home grown

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Educational Attainment Imports

• According to Current Population Survey data,
  about 5.6 of all Americans with a B.A. degree or
  better move either from county to county or state
  to state annually.
• Interstate movers are more likely to be younger
  than older. Among adults 25 and older, 44.5 of
  movers were between 25 and 24 years old.

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Educational Attainment Imports

• Some recent survey data suggests that newer
  residents of Chattanooga are more likely to have
  higher educational attainment.
• A recent CRC survey found that individuals who
  had lived in Chattanooga ten years or less were
  almost 50 more likely to have a college degree
  than those who had lived in the city for 20 years
  or more.

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Educational Attainment Imports

• One magnet for residents with a college degree or
  greater is the presence of a major college or
  university
• In 8 out of 10 high educational attainment
  cities, there was a major college or university
  (more than 10,000 students)

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Educational Attainment Imports

• Provo Brigham Young (33,008 students)
• Boise Boise State (18,332 students)
• Eugene Oregon (19,992 students)
• Raleigh N.C. State (29,854 students)
• Durham Duke (12,223 students)
• Columbia South Carolina (25,288 students)
• Lexington Kentucky (25,397 students)
• Lafayette Louisiana (16,208 students)

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Educational Attainment Imports

• Chattanoogas largest university University of
  Tennessee at Chattanooga has just 7,300
  students. Enrollment has remained largely flat
  for the last 5 years.
• Creative Class Approach attract college
  educated young people through waterfront
  development, downtown development and outdoor
  initiative

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Educational Attainment Home Growns

• The other way to increase educational attainment
  is for more young people growing up in
  Chattanooga to go on to college and stay in
  Chattanooga.
• The importance of educational attainment in mid
  size city growth also begs the question about the
  importance of public schools.

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Educational AttainmentPublic Schools

• What role does a high quality public school
  system play in attracting college educated
  movers?
• Can a quality public school system increase the
  number of home grown college educated residents?

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Educational Attainment Public Schools

• It is difficult to measure school quality across
  jurisdictions across states.
• Nationally, 89.3 of all students K-12 were in
  public school.
• In 4 of 10 cities, number of students in public
  school exceeded national average. All but one of
  the cities had a higher percentage in public
  school than Chattanooga.

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Educational AttainmentPublic Schools

• In 6 of 10 cities, 2001 four year high school
  graduation rates were greater than 70.
• In all but one city, public high school
  graduation rate exceeded Chattanoogas rate.

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Improving Chattanooga Schools

• The good news is that Chattanooga and Hamilton
  Countys schools have undergone significant
  improvement in the last four years.
• Test scores are rising even in the lowest
  performing schools and more students are
  graduating and going on to college.

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Is Chattanooga Growing?

• Given the increase in Latino migration, efforts
  to attract college educated newcomers and
  improvements to the public schools, is there any
  sign that Chattanooga is growing?