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Southern California Earthquake Center Community Modeling Environment AllHands Meeting

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The CME Collaboration will receive substantial support for the next two years ... the Southern California structural models using full 3D waveform tomography ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Southern California Earthquake Center Community Modeling Environment AllHands Meeting


1
Southern California Earthquake Center Community
Modeling Environment All-Hands Meeting
  • Tom Jordan
  • USC
  • January 28, 2008

2
Meeting Objectives
  • The CME Collaboration will receive substantial
    support for the next two years
  • NSF/EAR PetaSHA1 PetaSHA2 grants
  • NSF/OCI PetaApps grant
  • High SU allocations from the NSF HPC centers
  • SCEC base program
  • USGS collaboration
  • Principal objectives of this All-Hands Meeting
  • Prioritize science objectives
  • Coordinate activities for the next year

3
Community Modeling Environment
  • The CME is SCECs collaboratory for earthquake
    system science
  • It provides the cyberinfrastructure for executing
    the computational pathways of physics-based
    seismic hazard analysis (SHA)
  • It is developed and operated by the CME
    Collaboration
  • Its main facilities are the PetaSHA computational
    platforms
  • Participation by the SCEC community is
    coordinated through the Planning Committee,
    chaired by Greg Beroza, the SCEC Deputy Director

4
SCEC3 Science Priority Objectives (CME-dependent
priorities in blue)
  • Improve the unified structural representation and
    employ it to develop system-level models for
    earthquake forecasting and ground motion
    prediction
  • Develop an extended earthquake rupture forecast
    to drive physics-based SHA
  • Define slip rates and earthquake history of
    southern San Andreas fault system for last 2000
    years
  • Investigate implications of geodetic/geologic
    rate discrepancies
  • Develop a system-level deformation and
    stress-evolution model
  • Map seismicity and source parameters in relation
    to known faults
  • Develop a geodetic network processing system that
    will detect anomalous strain transients
  • Test scientific prediction hypotheses against
    reference models to understand the physical basis
    of earthquake predictability
  • Determine the origin and evolution of on- and
    off-fault damage as a function of depth
  • Test hypotheses for dynamic fault weakening
  • Assess predictability of rupture extent and
    direction on major faults
  • Describe heterogeneities in the stress, strain,
    geometry, and material properties of fault zones
    and understand their origin and interactions by
    modeling ruptures and rupture sequences
  • Predict broadband ground motions for a
    comprehensive set of large scenario earthquakes
  • Develop kinematic rupture representations
    consistent with dynamic rupture models
  • Investigate bounds on the upper limit of ground
    motion
  • Develop high-frequency simulation methods and
    investigate the upper frequency limit of
    deterministic ground motion predictions
  • Validate earthquake simulations and verify
    simulation methodologies
  • Collaborate with earthquake engineers to develop
    rupture-to-rafters simulation capability for
    physics-based risk analysis
  • Prepare post-earthquake response strategies

5
SHA Computational Pathways
KFR Kinematic Fault Rupture DFR Dynamic Fault
Rupture AWP Anelastic Wave Propagation
NSR Nonlinear Site Response F3DT Full 3D
Tomography
6
PetaSHA Computational Platforms
7
PetaSHA Science Objectives
  • Improve the resolution of dynamic rupture
    simulations by an order of magnitude to
    investigate realistic friction laws, near-fault
    stress states, and off-fault plasticity
  • Investigate the upper frequency limit of
    deterministic ground-motion prediction by
    simulating strong motions above 1 Hz using
    realistic 3D structural models for Southern
    California
  • Validate and improve the Southern California
    structural models using full 3D waveform
    tomography
  • Use dynamic rupture and ground motion simulations
    to calculate probabilistic seismic hazard maps
    for Southern California

8
CME Opportunities
  • CVM-H will provide a new framework for
    improvement of structural models
  • Full 3D crustal tomography (via F3DT platform)
    and tomographic studies of anisotropic mantle
    waves (via LAD focus group)
  • 2-station ambient wavefield tomography
  • WGCEP has produced a new Unified California
    Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF2)
  • Driver for CyberShake
  • Prioritization of ruptures for systematic
    investigations of basin excitations (á la
    TeraShake)
  • Three new platforms are in advanced development
  • DynaShake
  • BroadBand
  • F3DT
  • UseIT and ACCESS intern programs are recruiting
    young scholars for CME-based research and
    development

9
End
10
SCEC1
SCEC2
SCEC3
Participation
11
SCEC 2007 Funding
  • Category Amount
  • Base funding 3,800,000
  • Cost-sharing 1,984,000
  • Special projects 4,487,000
  • CEO 1,570,000
  • Total 12,311,000

12
Intern Programs
13
SCEC3 Science Priority Objectives (CME-dependent
priorities in blue)
  • Improve the unified structural representation and
    employ it to develop system-level models for
    earthquake forecasting and ground motion
    prediction
  • Develop an extended earthquake rupture forecast
    to drive physics-based SHA
  • Define slip rates and earthquake history of
    southern San Andreas fault system for last 2000
    years
  • Investigate implications of geodetic/geologic
    rate discrepancies
  • Develop a system-level deformation and
    stress-evolution model
  • Map seismicity and source parameters in relation
    to known faults
  • Develop a geodetic network processing system that
    will detect anomalous strain transients
  • Test scientific prediction hypotheses against
    reference models to understand the physical basis
    of earthquake predictability
  • Determine the origin and evolution of on- and
    off-fault damage as a function of depth
  • Test hypotheses for dynamic fault weakening
  • Assess predictability of rupture extent and
    direction on major faults
  • Describe heterogeneities in the stress, strain,
    geometry, and material properties of fault zones
    and understand their origin and interactions by
    modeling ruptures and rupture sequences
  • Predict broadband ground motions for a
    comprehensive set of large scenario earthquakes
  • Develop kinematic rupture representations
    consistent with dynamic rupture models
  • Investigate bounds on the upper limit of ground
    motion
  • Develop high-frequency simulation methods and
    investigate the upper frequency limit of
    deterministic ground motion predictions
  • Validate earthquake simulations and verify
    simulation methodologies
  • Collaborate with earthquake engineers to develop
    rupture-to-rafters simulation capability for
    physics-based risk analysis
  • Prepare post-earthquake response strategies
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