Wheat

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Wheat
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Kims web sitefor wheat market information
agecon.okstate.edu/anderson
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The price of wheat on June 20, 2007
KWN7 4.60 W7 4.41 HRW basis -0.30
4.30 4.00
Are there any questions?
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Talking Points
Price weather Wheat Stocks Argentina
Australia Plantings ? 07 production Use
domestic, exports world Price
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Talking Points
Price
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KCBT nearby price
1.8 .429
1.9 .491
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CBT nearby price
1.8 .429
1.9 .491
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KCBT Dec price
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CBT Dec price
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Talking Points
Price
Wheat Stocks
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Ending Stocks
10-year average
06
Std.
Million Bushels
U.S.
686
418
183
585
World
6,540
4,382
1,000
5.88
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Talking Points
Price Wheat stocks
Argentina Australia
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Argentina Australia
2006/07 2005/06 5-yr avg.
Million Bushels
Argentina 486 478 520
538
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KCBT Dec price
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Talking Points
Price Wheat stocks Argentina Australia
Plantings 07 production
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Seedings
Class
10-year avg.
06
Std.
Guess
million acres
HRW 31.0 29.7 1.5 31.5 6.0
SRW 8.5 7.4 1.2 7.9 6.5
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HRW wheat production area
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SRW wheat production area
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Other Spring Wheat
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Yield
Class
10-year avg.
06
Std.
Guess
bushel/acre
HRW 37.6 31.4 4.3
SRW 55.5 62.2 4.1
Winter 44.2 41.7
2.6
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Other Spr 35.5 33.2 4.1
Total 41.1 38.7 2.6
41.2
40.6
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Production
Class
10-year avg.
06
Std.
Guess
million bushels
2.34 2.16 2.10
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Production
10-year avg.
06
Std.
Guess
million bushels
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Talking Points
Price Wheat stocks Argentina
Australia Plantings
Use domestic export
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U.S. use
10-year average
Use
06
Std.
Guess
Million Bushels
1,028
925
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Export
925
Domestic
1,240
1,145
84
1,150
1,165
Total Use
2,268
2,070
134
2,075
2,173
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World use
10-year average
06
Std.
Guess
Million Bushels
22,500
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Ending Stocks
10-year average
06
Std.
Guess
Million Bushels
U.S.
685
418
183
543
584
World
6,530
4,382
1,000
4,582
5.87
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Talking Points
Price Wheat Stocks Argentina
Australia Plantings Use Domestic Exports
Price
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Use
USDA 06/07
USDA 05/06
Million Bushels
571 1,812 2,488 925 2,080 418 4.35
540 2,105 2,727 1,009 2,155 571 3.42

• Beginning stocks
• Production
• Supply, Total
• Exports
• Use, Total
• Ending Stocks
• Avg. farm price

1.19 bb
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Kims 07/08
USDA 06/07
Million Bushels
418 2,100 2,618 925 2,075 543
571 1,812 2,488 925 2,070 418 4.35

• Beginning stocks
• Production
• Supply, Total
• Exports
• Use, Total
• Ending Stocks
• Avg. farm price

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U.S. ending stocks price
4.30
3.40
Av ES 0.63 Av Price 3.32
0.540
0.440
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U.S. ending stocks price
4.35
4.30
3.40
Av ES 0.63 Av 3.32
0.540
0.440
0.418
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U.S. Wheat Supply and Use
Million Bushels
Kims 07/08
USDA 06/07
418 2,100 2,618 925 2,075 543 3.60
571 1,812 2,488 925 2,070 418 4.35

• Beginning stocks
• Production
• Supply, Total
• Exports
• Use, Total
• Ending Stocks
• Avg. farm price

1.19 bb
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Important points

• U.S. and world wheat stocks remain tight
• 540 m.b. ending stocks ? 3.40
• 430 m.b. ending stocks ? 4.30
• Going into harvest, prices will be relatively
  high
• Foreign crop determine 07/08 mkting yr trend
• Ethanol production changing market

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