Title: Lecture Presentation Software to accompany Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Seventh Edition by Frank K. Reilly
1Lecture Presentation Software to
accompanyInvestment Analysis and Portfolio
ManagementSeventh Editionby Frank K. Reilly
Keith C. Brown
Chapter 19
2Chapter 19 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
- Questions to be answered
- How do you determine the value of a bond based on
the present value formula? - What are the alternative bond yields that are
important to investors?
3Chapter 19 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
- How do you compute the following major yields on
bonds current yield, yield to maturity, yield to
call, and compound realized (horizon) yield? - What are spot rates and forward rates and how do
you calculate these rates from a yield to
maturity curve? - What is the spot rate yield curve and forward
rate curve?
4Chapter 19 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
- How and why do you use the spot rate curve to
determine the value of a bond? - What are the alternative theories that attempt to
explain the shape of the term structure of
interest rates? - What factors affect the level of bond yields at a
point in time? - What economic forces cause changes in bond yields
over time?
5Chapter 19 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
- When yields change, what characteristics of a
bond cause differential price changes for
individual bonds? - What is meant by the duration of a bond, how do
you compute it, and what factors affect it? - What is modified duration and what is the
relationship between a bonds modified duration
and its volatility?
6Chapter 19 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
- What is effective duration and when is it useful?
- What is the convexity for a bond, how do you
compute it, and what factors affect it? - Under what conditions is it necessary to consider
both modified duration and convexity when
estimating a bonds price volatility?
7Chapter 19 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
- What happens to the duration and convexity of
bonds that have embedded call options?
8Chapter 19 - The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
- What are effective duration and effective
convexity and when are they useful? - What is empirical duration and how is it used
with common stocks and other assets? - What are the static yield spread and the
option-adjusted spread?
9The Fundamentals of Bond Valuation
Where Pmthe current market price of the bond n
the number of years to maturity Ci the annual
coupon payment for bond i i the prevailing
yield to maturity for this bond issue Ppthe par
value of the bond
10The Fundamentals of Bond Valuation
- If yield lt coupon rate, bond will be priced at a
premium to its par value - If yield gt coupon rate, bond will be priced at a
discount to its par value - Price-yield relationship is convex (not a
straight line)
11The Yield Model
- The expected yield on the bond may be computed
from the market price
Where i the discount rate that will discount
the cash flows to equal the current market price
of the bond
12Computing Bond Yields
Nominal Yield
Measures the coupon rate
Current yield
Measures current income rate
Promised yield to maturity
Measures expected rate of return for bond held to
maturity
Promised yield to call
Measures expected rate of return for bond held to
first call date
Measures expected rate of return for a bond
likely to be sold prior to maturity. It
considers specified reinvestment assumptions and
an estimated sales price. It can also measure
the actual rate of return on a bond during some
past period of time.
Realized (horizon) yield
13Nominal Yield
- Measures the coupon rate that a bond investor
receives as a percent of the bonds par value
14Current Yield
- Similar to dividend yield for stocks
- Important to income oriented investors
- CY Ci/Pm
- where
- CY the current yield on a bond
- Ci the annual coupon payment of bond i
- Pm the current market price of the bond
15Promised Yield to Maturity
- Widely used bond yield figure
- Assumes
- Investor holds bond to maturity
- All the bonds cash flow is reinvested at the
computed yield to maturity
Solve for i that will equate the current price to
all cash flows from the bond to maturity, similar
to IRR
16Computing the Promised Yield to Maturity
- Two methods
- Approximate promised yield
- Easy, less accurate
- Present-value model
- More involved, more accurate
17Approximate Promised Yield
- Coupon Annual Straight-Line Amortization of
Capital Gain or Loss - Average Investment
18Present-Value Model
19Promised Yield to CallApproximation
- May be less than yield to maturity
- Reflects return to investor if bond is called and
cannot be held to maturity
Where AYC approximate yield to call (YTC) Pc
call price of the bond Pm market price of the
bond Ct annual coupon payment nc the number
of years to first call date
20Promised Yield to CallPresent-Value Method
- Where
- Pm market price of the bond
- Ci annual coupon payment
- nc number of years to first call
- Pc call price of the bond
21Realized Yield Approximation
Where ARY approximate realized yield to call
(YTC) Pf estimated future selling price of the
bond Ci annual coupon payment hp the number
of years in holding period of the bond
22Realized YieldPresent-Value Method
23Calculating Future Bond Prices
- Where
- Pf estimated future price of the bond
- Ci annual coupon payment
- n number of years to maturity
- hp holding period of the bond in years
- i expected semiannual rate at the end of the
holding period
24Yield Adjustments for Tax-Exempt Bonds
- Where
- T amount and type of tax exemption
25What Determines Interest Rates
- Inverse relationship with bond prices
- Forecasting interest rates
- Fundamental determinants of interest rates
- i RFR I RP
- where
- RFR real risk-free rate of interest
- I expected rate of inflation
- RP risk premium
26What Determines Interest Rates
- Effect of economic factors
- real growth rate
- tightness or ease of capital market
- expected inflation
- or supply and demand of loanable funds
- Impact of bond characteristics
- credit quality
- term to maturity
- indenture provisions
- foreign bond risk including exchange rate risk
and country risk
27What Determines Interest Rates
- Term structure of interest rates
- Expectations hypothesis
- Liquidity preference hypothesis
- Segmented market hypothesis
- Trading implications of the term structure
28Expectations Hypothesis
- Any long-term interest rate simply represents the
geometric mean of current and future one-year
interest rates expected to prevail over the
maturity of the issue
29Liquidity Preference Theory
- Long-term securities should provide higher
returns than short-term obligations because
investors are willing to sacrifice some yields to
invest in short-maturity obligations to avoid the
higher price volatility of long-maturity bonds
30Segmented-Market Hypothesis
- Different institutional investors have different
maturity needs that lead them to confine their
security selections to specific maturity segments
31Trading Implications of the Term Structure
- Information on maturities can help you formulate
yield expectations by simply observing the shape
of the yield curve
32Yield Spreads
- Segments government bonds, agency bonds, and
corporate bonds - Sectors prime-grade municipal bonds versus
good-grade municipal bonds, AA utilities versus
BBB utilities - Coupons or seasoning within a segment or sector
- Maturities within a given market segment or sector
33Yield Spreads
- Magnitudes and direction of yield spreads can
change over time
34What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds
- Bond price change is measured as the percentage
change in the price of the bond
Where EPB the ending price of the bond BPB
the beginning price of the bond
35What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds
- Four Factors
- 1. Par value
- 2. Coupon
- 3. Years to maturity
- 4. Prevailing market interest rate
36What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds
- Five observed behaviors
- 1. Bond prices move inversely to bond yields
(interest rates) - 2. For a given change in yields, longer maturity
bonds post larger price changes, thus bond price
volatility is directly related to maturity - 3. Price volatility increases at a diminishing
rate as term to maturity increases - 4. Price movements resulting from equal absolute
increases or decreases in yield are not
symmetrical - 5. Higher coupon issues show smaller percentage
price fluctuation for a given change in yield,
thus bond price volatility is inversely related
to coupon
37What Determines the Price Volatility for Bonds
- The maturity effect
- The coupon effect
- The yield level effect
- Some trading strategies
38The Duration Measure
- Since price volatility of a bond varies inversely
with its coupon and directly with its term to
maturity, it is necessary to determine the best
combination of these two variables to achieve
your objective - A composite measure considering both coupon and
maturity would be beneficial
39The Duration Measure
- Developed by Frederick R. Macaulay, 1938
- Where
- t time period in which the coupon or
principal payment occurs - Ct interest or principal payment that occurs in
period t - i yield to maturity on the bond
40Characteristics of Duration
- Duration of a bond with coupons is always less
than its term to maturity because duration gives
weight to these interim payments - A zero-coupon bonds duration equals its maturity
- There is an inverse relation between duration and
coupon - There is a positive relation between term to
maturity and duration, but duration increases at
a decreasing rate with maturity - There is an inverse relation between YTM and
duration - Sinking funds and call provisions can have a
dramatic effect on a bonds duration
41Modified Duration and Bond Price Volatility
- An adjusted measure of duration can be used to
approximate the price volatility of a bond
Where m number of payments a year YTM
nominal YTM
42Duration and Bond Price Volatility
- Bond price movements will vary proportionally
with modified duration for small changes in
yields - An estimate of the percentage change in bond
prices equals the change in yield time modified
duration
Where ?P change in price for the bond P
beginning price for the bond Dmod the modified
duration of the bond ?i yield change in basis
points divided by 100
43Trading Strategies Using Duration
- Longest-duration security provides the maximum
price variation - If you expect a decline in interest rates,
increase the average duration of your bond
portfolio to experience maximum price volatility - If you expect an increase in interest rates,
reduce the average duration to minimize your
price decline - Note that the duration of your portfolio is the
market-value-weighted average of the duration of
the individual bonds in the portfolio
44Bond Duration in Years for Bonds Yielding 6
Percent Under Different Terms
45Bond Convexity
- Equation 19.6 is a linear approximation of bond
price change for small changes in market yields
46Bond Convexity
- Modified duration is a linear approximation of
bond price change for small changes in market
yields - Price changes are not linear, but a curvilinear
(convex) function
47Price-Yield Relationship for Bonds
- The graph of prices relative to yields is not a
straight line, but a curvilinear relationship - This can be applied to a single bond, a portfolio
of bonds, or any stream of future cash flows - The convex price-yield relationship will differ
among bonds or other cash flow streams depending
on the coupon and maturity - The convexity of the price-yield relationship
declines slower as the yield increases - Modified duration is the percentage change in
price for a nominal change in yield
48Modified Duration
- For small changes this will give a good estimate,
but this is a linear estimate on the tangent line
49Determinants of Convexity
- The convexity is the measure of the curvature and
is the second derivative of price with resect to
yield (d2P/di2) divided by price - Convexity is the percentage change in dP/di for a
given change in yield
50Determinants of Convexity
- Inverse relationship between coupon and convexity
- Direct relationship between maturity and
convexity - Inverse relationship between yield and convexity
51Modified Duration-Convexity Effects
- Changes in a bonds price resulting from a change
in yield are due to - Bonds modified duration
- Bonds convexity
- Relative effect of these two factors depends on
the characteristics of the bond (its convexity)
and the size of the yield change - Convexity is desirable
52Duration and Convexity for Callable Bonds
- Issuer has option to call bond and pay off with
proceeds from a new issue sold at a lower yield - Embedded option
- Difference in duration to maturity and duration
to first call - Combination of a noncallable bond plus a call
option that was sold to the issuer - Any increase in value of the call option reduces
the value of the callable bond
53Option Adjusted Duration
- Based on the probability that the issuing firm
will exercise its call option - Duration of the non-callable bond
- Duration of the call option
54Convexity of Callable Bonds
- Noncallable bond has positive convexity
- Callable bond has negative convexity
55Limitations of Macaulay and Modified Duration
- Percentage change estimates using modified
duration only are good for small-yield changes - Difficult to determine the interest-rate
sensitivity of a portfolio of bonds when there is
a change in interest rates and the yield curve
experiences a nonparallel shift - Initial assumption that cash flows from the bond
are not affected by yield changes
56Effective Duration
- Measure of the interest rate sensitivity of an
asset - Use a pricing model to estimate the market prices
surrounding a change in interest rates - Effective Duration Effective Convexity
P- the estimated price after a downward shift
in interest rates P the estimated price after
a upward shift in interest rates P the
current price S the assumed shift in the term
structure
57Effective Duration
- Effective duration greater than maturity
- Negative effective duration
- Empirical duration
58Empirical Duration
- Actual percent change for an asset in response to
a change in yield during a specified time period
59Yield Spreads With Embedded Options
- Static Yield Spreads
- Consider the total term structure
- Option-Adjusted Spreads
- Consider changes in the term structure and
alternative estimates of the volatility of
interest rates
60The InternetInvestments Online
- www.bondcalc.com
- www.bondtrac.com
- www.moneyline.com
- www.bondsonline.com
61- End of Chapter 19
- The Analysis and Valuation of Bonds
62Future topicsChapter 20
- Bond Portfolio Management Strategies