USE OF FLOOD PROPAGATION MODELS IN REAL TIME HYDROLOGIC FORECAST' EXPERIENCES AT SEGURA RIVER

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USE OF FLOOD PROPAGATION MODELS IN REAL TIME
HYDROLOGIC FORECAST.EXPERIENCES AT SEGURA RIVER

• ANGEL LUIS ALDANA VALVERDE
• Dr. Civil Engineer
• Centro de Estudios Hidrográficos (Hydrographic
  Studies Center)
• CEDEX-Centro de Estudios y Experimentación de
  Obras Públicas (Center for Studies and
  Experimentation on Public Works)

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Study and application area

• 65 km aprox. of Segura river

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SAIH Segura
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PRELIMINARY STUDIES

• First step go more deeply into the knowledge of
  the application area
• Different modeling techniques
• Hydrological
• Hydraulics
• Steady state numerical models
• Unsteady state numerical models
• Dynamic wave models
• Simplified models
• Physical/scale models

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Fundamental hydraulic studies

• Analysis of real events
• Basis for the knowledge about the problem and the
  studies needed to achieve solutions

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Fundamental hydraulic studies

• Analysis with physical models

• Phenomena or singularities which
• cannot be simulated with numerical models with
  enough accuracy
• require good knowledge about their behavior

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Fundamental hydraulic studies

• Analysis based on Numerical modeling

• Analysis to
• Improve the knowledge about the problem
• Achieve the most appropriate/suitable solution

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EDIMACHI-PROC Segura Defining the solution

• Analysis
• Operational needs in the use of numerical models
• Findings from basic studies
• Comparison among several numerical models
• Conclusions
• It is not necessary to consider the
  rainfall-runoff transformation at basins placed
  downstream from the chosen gauging stations.
• The simplified models provide enough accuracy to
  a forecast time of 6 hours and an average error
  of water levels less than 20 cm at Segura river.
• The variability of hydraulic characteristics of
  the river through the time, including during a
  flood, can make inadvisable the use of dynamic
  wave models the most of the times.
• Doubled input rating curves and interactive tools
  are necessary. The second ones are used to modify
  the simple rating curves in real time.

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EDIMACHI-PROC Segura Main characteristics

• Pre-processing of measured data
• Modification of rating curves
• Predefined rating curves
• Rating curves as a function of the roughness
• Three flood propagation methods

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EDIMACHI-PROC Segura Application cases

• 1997
• 2000
• 2001
• 2003

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More information at

• Hydraulic and hydrology numerical modeling
• Hydraulic Laboratory
• Hydrographic Studies Center
• http//hercules.cedex.es/hidraulica/English