Expert Group Meeting on Enhancing Regional Cooperation for Energy Security in Asia and the Pacific 9

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Expert Group Meeting on Enhancing Regional
Cooperation for Energy Security in Asia and the
Pacific9-11 December 2009, Bangkok, Thailand
Energy Security in SAARC Countries
Dr. Muhammad Pervaz, Program Leader Technology
Transfer SAARC Energy Centre
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Presentation Outline

• Features and Facts
• The Energy Situation and Resources
• Challenges of Energy Security
• Regional and International Cooperation for Energy
  Security

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Features and Facts
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Features and Facts
? 1.7 billion people, one-fourth of the World
need Peace, Progress and Prosperity ? Combined
GDP is less than 3 of the World share in global
trade is 1.2
? One-third of population lives below 1 per day
poverty line ? Receives only 1 of Global
Foreign Investment ? Very low Intra-Regional
Trade only 5.3 of total trade in 2004 (cf.
ASEAN 22.5)
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Features and Facts

• ? All countries energy deficit (except Bhutan)
  and oil importing thus economies highly
  sensitive to crude oil price
• ? Energy needs of South Asia will increase
  3-times from present 500 to 1,500 mtoe in the
  next 15 years
• ? Per capita annual energy consumption 443 kgoe
  (i.e. one-fourth of the world average)
• ? Power generation capacity 156,000 MW
• ? Power generation 774 TWh/Year
  (455KWh/Capita/Year, i.e. one-eighth of world
  average)

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The Energy Situation and Resources
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Energy Consumption of South Asia
Commercial Energy By-Source
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Fossil Fuel Resources of South Asia
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Hydro Potential of SAARC Region
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Energy Mix in Power Generation
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Present Status of Power Generation

• ? Most of the SAARC Member States are now facing
  significant amount of power outages due to
  shortage of generation
• ? All Member States are importing oil for power
  generation
• ? Due to shortage of primary fuel supply, most
  Member States are unable to operate their
  machines in full capacities
• ? Except Bangladesh, Maldives and Sri Lanka, all
  Member States have electrical interconnection
  with neighboring countries

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Additional Power Needs of SAARC Countries by 2020

• Additional Power Generation Capacity Requirement
  
• 151,500 MW
• ? India 100,000 MW
• ? Pakistan Bangladesh 37,530 MW
• ? Rest of SAARC Countries 13,970 MW
• For this capacity addition -
• ? Capital Cost Needs US 200 Billion
• ? Fuel Requirement 38 bcfd Gas OR
• 330 m t/y Oil
• ? Other Requirements Technology
• Human Resources
• Management, etc.

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Challenges of Energy Security
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What is Energy Security ?
Energy security implies availability of
energy ? at all times ? in various forms ?
in sufficient quantities ? at affordable price
and ? with environmental sustainability
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Energy Import Dependence of South Asia
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Energy Insecurity Index

• Energy Insecurity Index is based on
• ? Share of net imports in total oil consumption
  (40 weightage)
• ? Share of oil in total primary commercial
  energy consumption (35 weightage)
• ? Share of the Middle East oil in total oil
  imports (25 weightage)

All South Asian countries suffer from energy
insecurity and are projected to remain so in the
foreseeable future
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Energy Insecurity Index
120
100
100
87
86
76
74
Maldives
80
64
62
Sri Lanka
58
56
Afghanistan
60
Bhutan
46
42
Nepal
Korea and Japan
36
India
Pakistan
Energy Insecurity Index
40
Bangladesh
Europe
China
United States
20
0
Malaysia
Vietnam
-20
-14
-15
-40
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Regional and International Cooperation for
Energy Security
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Possible Ways of Addressing Energy Demand
National
? Optimum utilization of available resources ?
Energy conservation and efficiency
improvement ? Promoting renewable energy
Intra- and Inter-Regional

• ? Sharing regional best practices
• ? Technology transfer
• ? Reducing negative environmental impact
• ? Sharing of hydro and gas resources

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SAARC Initiatives Towards Energy Cooperation
? Islamabad Declaration 2004 The 12th SAARC
Summit established a Working Group on Energy to
conduct a study on creating a South Asian Energy
Cooperation including the concept of an Energy
Ring ? During the Fifteenth SAARC Summit
(Colombo, 2-3 August 2008), the Heads of State or
Government of the SAARC Member States stressed
the urgent need to develop the regional hydro
potential, grid connectivity and gas pipelines.
They noted that the possibility of evolving an
appropriate regional inter-governmental framework
may be explored to facilitate such an endeavour
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SAARC Initiatives Towards Energy Cooperation
? Islamabad Declaration 2004 The 12th SAARC
Summit established a Working Group on Energy to
conduct a study on creating a South Asian Energy
Cooperation including the concept of an Energy
Ring ? During the Fifteenth SAARC Summit
(Colombo, 2-3 August 2008), the Heads of State or
Government of the SAARC Member States stressed
the urgent need to develop the regional hydro
potential, grid connectivity and gas pipelines.
They noted that the possibility of evolving an
appropriate regional inter-governmental framework
may be explored to facilitate such an endeavour
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SAARC Initiatives Towards Energy Cooperation
? Islamabad Declaration 2004 The 12th SAARC
Summit established a Working Group on Energy to
conduct a study on creating a South Asian Energy
Cooperation including the concept of an Energy
Ring ? During the Fifteenth SAARC Summit
(Colombo, 2-3 August 2008), the Heads of State or
Government of the SAARC Member States stressed
the urgent need to develop the regional hydro
potential, grid connectivity and gas pipelines.
They noted that the possibility of evolving an
appropriate regional inter-governmental framework
may be explored to facilitate such an endeavour
23
SAARC Initiatives Towards Energy Cooperation
? Islamabad Declaration 2004 The 12th SAARC
Summit established a Working Group on Energy to
conduct a study on creating a South Asian Energy
Cooperation including the concept of an Energy
Ring ? During the Fifteenth SAARC Summit
(Colombo, 2-3 August 2008), the Heads of State or
Government of the SAARC Member States stressed
the urgent need to develop the regional hydro
potential, grid connectivity and gas pipelines.
They noted that the possibility of evolving an
appropriate regional inter-governmental framework
may be explored to facilitate such an endeavour
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SAARC Initiatives Towards Energy Cooperation

• The Third Meeting of the SAARC Energy Ministers
  (Colombo, 29 January 2009) approved the Concept
  Paper on Energy Ring, with the observation that
  it is a dynamic concept and will evolve over time
  with the experience of the Member States and
  changing ground realities.
• The Meeting recommended formation of following
  Expert Groups for different commodities and
  services
• Oil and Gas
• Electricity
• Renewable Energy
• Technology/knowledge sharing (including energy
  efficiency, coal etc.)

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SAARC Initiatives Towards Energy Cooperation
? Dhaka Declaration 2005 The Heads of State
or Government welcomed the Joint Statement of the
first SAARC Energy Ministers meeting in October
2005 in Islamabad. They agreed to the
recommendation to establish the SAARC Energy
Centre in Islamabad to promote development of
energy resources, including hydropower, and
energy trade in the region to develop renewable
and alternative energy resources and promote
energy efficiency and conservation in the
region.
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SAARC Initiatives Towards Energy Cooperation
? Dhaka Declaration 2005 They underlined the
need to constitute a South Asian Energy Dialogue
process, involving officials, experts, academics,
environmentalists and NGOs, to recommend measures
to tap potentials of cooperation in energy sector
to provide inputs to the Working Group on
Energy.
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Five Thematic Areas of SECs Work
? Energy Trade ? Energy Policy ? Energy
Efficiency and Renewable Energy ? Technology
Transfer ? Rural Energy
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Energy Resources Around South Asia
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Pipelines from the east and the west can further
be extended to Nepal
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(No Transcript)
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Benefits of Energy Cooperation
? SAARC energy cooperation program provides a
major substantive element for economic prosperity
of South Asia through meeting the energy demand
of the countries ? Energy cooperation is a
driver for the SAARC process, leading to durable
peace in the region ? SAARC Energy Centre has
been created as the SPV to realize the vision of
SAARC leaders to establish an ENERGY RING in
South Asia
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Thank you for your attention