CCI-HYDR%20-%20Climate%20change%20impact%20on%20hydrological%20extremes%20along%20rivers%20and%20urban%20drainage%20systems%20%20ADAPT%20

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CCI-HYDR - Climate change impact on hydrological
extremes along rivers and urban drainage systems
ADAPT Towards an integrated tool for deciding
about adaptation measures case study floods

• Follow-up committee meeting
• 12 November, Uccle

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Overview

• Derivation of potential climate change scenarios
  for Belgium
• Statistical analysis of trends and cycles in
  rainfall, evapotranspiration and flow series
• Final selection climate change scenarios for
  Belgium
• Impact modelling along rivers and urban drainage
  systems
• Flood risk modelling
• Identification of adaptation scenarios
• Modelling the effects of adaptation measures
• Evaluating adaptation measures

CC scenarios
CCI-HYDR
Occurrence of low and high flows
ADAPT
Adaptation to high flows
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CCI-HYDR project - content
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CCI-HYDR project - questions
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Adapt project preliminary results Dender case

• Social flood impact

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Dender case
High RT 100
Low RT 100
Current RT 100
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Social hot spots
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Social risk modelling SFI tool

• Exposure and flood characteristics

Social flood impact
Adaptive capacity
Vulnerability
SFI E x Vp/Ac
Based on Hilhorst 2004
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Indicators of social flood impact
Flood characteristics Flood characteristics Flood characteristics
Indicator Threshold level Data
Water level gt 30 cm Ourthe HACH Dender CCI-Hydr
Speed of water rise Sudden no or limited warning time Ourthe HACH Dender CCI-Hydr
Velocity gt 2m/s Ourthe HACH Dender CCI-Hydr
duration gt 12 hours Ourthe HACH Dender CCI-Hydr
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Indicators of social flood impact

• Exposure
• Location of houses by means of Cadmap and land
  use maps

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Indicators of social flood impact
Vulnerability of people Vulnerability of people Vulnerability of people
indicator data
Age Proportion gt 75y NIS
Financial situation NIS
Health status Health survey Not available at district level
Family structure Proportion lone parents NIS
Nationality Proportion non-belgian nationality (strata 3) NIS
Property type Proportion people in one-storey houses To be calculated
Nationality Proportion non-belgian nationality (strata 3) NIS
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Indicators of social flood impact

• Adaptive capacity of society
• Non-technical measures
• Availability or resources and distribution across
  the population
• Institutional structure
• Human capital
• Social capital
• Risk spreading processes
• Information
• Perception of people
• Data gathered by interviews, policy documents and
  media

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Social risk modelling

• Weighting
• Flood characteristics water level is most
  important
• Vulnerability equal weights
• Adaptive capacity equal weights
• State of affairs
• Flood characteristics in progress
• Vulnerability finalized
• Adaptive capacity in progress

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Social flood impact knowledge table
High risk area most severe social flood impacts
Medium risk area social flood impacts can be severe, but less severe than in red cases
Low risk area less severe social flood impacts
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GIS output
Vulnerability
Flood map
Adaptive capacity
Buildings
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Social impact map
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Output number of affected people per impact
categorie
Geraardsbergen and Ninove
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Scenarios

• What is a scenario?
• An image of the future that are neither
  predictions nor forecasts but an alternative
  image of how the future might unfold.
  (Nakicenovic et al. 2000)
• Why using scenarios?
• Taking socio-economic change into account
• To deal with uncertainty
• To raise awareness

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Socio-economic scenarios

• Lieven aanvullen?
• Narrative storylines IPCC
• Containing key elements of socio-economic change
• Technology
• Governance
• Social and political values
• Demography
• Economy
• Estimating parameters (data?)
• Ecological vulnerability
• Social vulnerability
• Economic vulnerability

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Stakeholder participation

• Who?
• Decisionmakers at all levels, experts, water
  managers, interest groups and citizens
• Why?
• Increase social support
• Take into accounts stakeholder knowledge
• How in the Adapt project?
• Which measures are feasible in the area?
  (interviews with water managers)
• Which measures are acceptable? (interviews with
  decisionmakers, public officers, experts and
  focus groups with interest groups and citizens)
• Which criteria are most preferred? (interviews)

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ADAPT project - questions