The Changing Face of New Zealand: A Demographer Explains

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The Changing Face of New Zealand A Demographer
Explains
Mansoor Khawaja Principal Demographer Statistics
New Zealand
Presentation to Public Sector Communicators
Network, May 2007
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OUTLINE

• Slower growth to 5 Million mark, and beyond!
• Age Structure shifts, and further Greying of
  Population
• An Ageing Labour force
• Changing Ethnic Mosaic
• Regional diversity in Population Growth
• Challenges, Opportunities and Policy Implications

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Future Growth Prospects
Projected (1) Total Fertility Rate 1.85
births per woman. (2) Life Expectancy at Birth
Men (83.5 years) Women (87.0 years), by 2051.
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Highs and Lows of Net External Migration, New
Zealand, December years 1970-2006.
March year 2007 12,100

• Permanent and long-term arrivals minus
  permanent and long-term departures.

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Net Migration of New Zealand Citizens and
non-Citizens,1980-2005
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Shrinking Natural Increase
(000)
Births
43 Thousand
Deaths
Historical
Projected
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Greying New Zealand
2006 Census Median age 35.9 years
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More older folks (65) than Children ( under 15
yrs), New Zealand, 1951-2051
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Working-age Population Takes on an Older
Profile!

• _______________________________________________
• Age group 2001 2011
  2021 2031
• __________________________________
• 5-14 596 588 560
  553
• 15-24 533 621 612 584
  
• 25-34 549 513 569 561
• 35-44 604 604 557 613
  
• 45-54 507 623 626 580
• 55-64 350 489 606 610
• __________________________________

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CHANGING ETHNIC MOSAIC, 1986-2006

• ___________________________________
• Ethnic Census year
• group 1986 1991 1996 2001
  2006
• ______________________________
• Percent of Total NZ
  Population
• European 86.0 83.2 83.1 80.1
  72.8
• Maori 12.6 13.0 15.1 4.7
  15.8
• Pacific 4.0 5.0 5.8
  6.5 7.4
• Asian 1.7 3.0 5.0
  6.6 9.9
• __________________________________________
• Note. Includes all the people who stated each
  ethnic group,
• whether as their only ethnic group or one of
  several ethnic
• groups. Where a person reported more than one
  ethnic group,
• they have been counted in each applicable group.
• In 2006 census, 429,000 people or over 10
  percent of
• population reported their ethnicity as New
  Zealander.

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GROWING ETHNIC DIVERSITY IN NEW ZEALAND,
2001-2021
Asian
270 670
145
28.6 36.2
1.67
Source Statistics New Zealand, Ethnic Population
Projections, 2001(base) - 2021
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Projected Mäori and Pacific Share of Broad Age
Groups, 2001-2021

• People identifying with the Mäori ethnicity and
  a Pacific ethnicity are included in each
  population.

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Projected Regional Population Change, 20012026
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• For more information on Demographic statistics
  and Projections, see www.stats.govt.nz