Global Climate Change: A Faustian Bargain

1
Global Climate ChangeA Faustian BargainYet
Grounded in Science
Berrien Moore IIIInstitute for the Study of
Earth, Oceans, and SpaceUniversity of New
Hampshire
20th ESIP Federation Meeting 9 January 2008
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390
Mauna Loa Average Monthly Carbon Dioxide
ConcentrationKeeling Record 1958 - 2005
385
380
375
370
365
360
355
350
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
345
340
335
330
325
320
315
310
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
1958
Year
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii 19 May 05
Thank you, David Keeling
6
Historical Atmospheric Carbon Concentration for
the Last 1000 Years Extracted from the Law Dome
Ice Core
360
350
Law Dome Ice Core
Ice core
340
FIM
Polynomial fit to ice core
330
Carbon Concnetration (ppmv)
320
310
300
290
280
270
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Year
Source Etheridge, et.al., Petit, et.al.
7
Variation with Time of the Vostok Isotope
Temperature Record
Temperature Variation (C)
Years Before Present
Source Petit, et.al. (PAGES/IGBP)
8
CO2 Concentration in the Vostok Ice Core
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Source Barnola, et.al. (PAGES/IGBP)
9
Vostok Ice Core CO2 Concentration and Temperature
Variation Record
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Source Barnola, et.al. Petit, et.al.
(PAGES/IGBP)
10
CO2 Concentration in the Vostok Ice Core
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Source Barnola, et.al. (PAGES/IGBP)
11
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Business as Usual
carbon dioxide (ppmv)
carbon dioxide (ppmv)
Current
Vostok Ice Core
Vostok Ice Core
Years Before 2100 AD
Years Before 2100 AD
IPCC 2001
12
Cumulative Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel
Consumption and Cement Production
Half of 283 Gt Release Since 1974
Cumulative Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions (billion
tonnes C)
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center - ORNL
13
Historical Atmospheric Carbon Concentration for
the Last 1000 Years Extracted from the Law Dome
Ice Core
360
350
Law Dome Ice Core
Ice core
340
FIM
Polynomial fit to ice core
330
320
Carbon Concnetration (ppmv)
310
300
290
280
270
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Year
Source Etheridge, et.al., Petit, et.al.
14
Anthropogenic C Emissions Fossil Fuel
2006 Fossil Fuel 8.4 Pg C
2006-Total Anthrop. Emissions 8.41.5 9.9 Pg
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
1990 - 1999 1.3 y-1 2000 - 2006 3.3 y-1
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Canadell et al 2007,
PNAS
15
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
50-year constant growth rates to 2050 B1
1.1, A1B 1.7, A2 1.8 A1FI 2.4
Observed 2000-2006 3.3
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Canadell et al. 2007,
PNAS
16
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration
Year 2006 Atmospheric CO2 concentration 381
ppm 35 above pre-industrial
1970 1979 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 1989 1.6 ppm
y1 1990 1999 1.5 ppm y-1
2000 - 2006 1.9 ppm y-1
NOAA 2007 Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
17
The Airborne Fraction (2000-2006)
45 of all CO2 emissions accumulated in the
atmosphere
The Airborne Fraction
The fraction of the annual anthropogenic
emissions that remains in the atmosphere
55 were removed by natural sinks
Ocean removes 24
Land removes 30
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
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Attribution of Recent Acceleration of Atmospheric
CO2
1970 1979 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 1989 1.6 ppm
y1 1990 1999 1.5 ppm y-1

• To
• Economic growth
• Carbon intensity
• Efficiency of natural sinks

2000 2006 1.9 ppm y-1
65 - Increased activity of the global economy
17 - Increased carbon intensity of the global
economy
18 - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
19
Climate System
Source WCRP
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Climate System A Balancing Act
21
Global Temperature 1880-2005 (meteorological
stations)
http//www.giss.nasa.gov
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An increasing body of observations of climatic
and other changes in physical and ecological
systems gives a collective picture of a warming
world.
Source of text IPCC Third Assessment Report, WG1
26
Global mean surface temperature has increased
more than .5C since the beginning of the 20th
century, with this warming likely being the
largest during any century over the past 1,000
years for the Northern hemisphere.
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report, WG1
27

• Fourth Assessment Report
• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon
  dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have
  increased markedly as a result of human
  activities since 1750 and now far exceed
  pre-industrial values determined from ice cores
  spanning many thousands of years.
• Warming of the climate system is unequivocal,
  as is now evident from observations of increases
  in global average air and ocean temperatures,
  widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising
  global average sea level.
• Paleoclimate information supports the
  interpretation that the warmth of the last half
  century is unusual in at least the previous 1300
  years. The last time the polar regions were
  significantly warmer than present for an
  extended period (about 125,000 years ago)
  reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6
  metres of sea level rise.

Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
28
There is new and stronger evidence that most of
the warming observed  over the last 50 years is
likely attributable to human activities.
Source of text IPCC Third Assessment Report, WG1
29
Fourth Assessment Report Most of the observed
increase in globally averaged temperatures since
the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse
gas concentrations. For the next two decades a
warming of about 0.2C per decade is projected
for a range of SRES emission scenarios. Even if
the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and
aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000
levels, a further warming of about 0.1C per
decade would be expected. Continued greenhouse
gas emissions at or above current rates would
cause further warming and induce many changes in
the global climate system during the 21st century
that would very likely be larger than those
observed during the 20th century. Anthropogenic
warming and sea level rise would continue for
centuries due to the timescales associated with
climate processes and feedbacks, even if
greenhouse gas concentrations were to be
stabilized.
Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
30
Global temperature will rise from 1.4-5.8C over
this century unless greenhouse gas emissions are
greatly reduced.
Source of text IPCC Third Assessment Report, WG1
31
Fourth Assessment Report Climate-Carbon
System Assessed upper ranges for temperature
projections are larger than in the TAR mainly
because the broader range of models now available
suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.
Climate carbon cycle coupling is expected to
add carbon dioxide to the atmosphere as the
climate system warms, but the magnitude of this
feedback is uncertain. This increases the
uncertainty in the trajectory of carbon dioxide
emissions required to achieve a particular
stabilization level of atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentration.
Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
32
390
Mauna Loa Average Monthly Carbon Dioxide
ConcentrationKeeling Record 1958 - 2005
385
380
375
370
365
360
355
350
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
345
340
335
330
325
320
315
310
04
02
00
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
82
80
78
76
74
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
1958
Year
Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii 19 May 05
Thank you, David Keeling
33
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and its impact on plate tectonics
35
The Airborne Fraction (2000-2006)
45 of all CO2 emissions accumulated in the
atmosphere
The Airborne Fraction
The fraction of the annual anthropogenic
emissions that remains in the atmosphere
55 were removed by natural sinks
Ocean removes 24
Land removes 30
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
36
Biological Pump
Physical (solubility) Pump
Source JGOFS / IGBP
37
Source JGOFS / IGBP Image NASA / SeaWiFS
38
Source WOCE / WCRP
39
Biological Pump
Physical (solubility) Pump
Source JGOFS / IGBP
40
Fourth Assessment Report Meridional Overturning
Circulation Based on current model simulations,
it is very likely that the meridional overturning
circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic Ocean will slow
down during the 21st century. The multi-model
average reduction by 2100 is 25 (range from zero
to about 50) for SRES emission scenario A1B.
Temperatures in the Atlantic region are
projected to increase despite such changes due to
the much larger warming associated with projected
increases of greenhouse gases. It is very
unlikely that the MOC will undergo a large
abrupt transition during the 21st century.
Longer-term changes in the MOC cannot be assessed
with confidence.
Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
41
Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Uptake and Storage
CO2
Plant respiration
Soil and litter respiration
Disturbance
GPP
Short-term carbon uptake NPP 60 Gt/yr
Medium-term carbon storage NEP 10 Gt/yr
Long-term carbon storage NBP 1-2 Gt/yr
C h a l l e n g e s o f a C h a n g i
n g E a r t h J u l y 2 0 0 1
C h a l l e n g e s o f a C h a n g i
n g E a r t h J u l y 2 0 0 1
Source GCTE / IGBP
42
CO2 Annual Growth Rate
8
6
4
2
30
0
-30
Year
Source R. Francey (CSIRO)
43
Global Carbon Sources and Sinks
Source GCTE / IGBP
44
Forest Inventory and Analysis Information System
45
AmeriFlux, EuroFlux and taller towers
46
AN-2 type Siberian airplane used to measure
vertical profiles of CO2
47
R/V Roger Revelle
48
MODIS Ocean Chlorophyll
49
Net Primary Productivity (g C/m3/yr1)
50
The Carbon System
Approach
Scale
The source and sinks and controlling processes
will only be determined within an integrated
approach where point-wise in situ surface
measurements can be scaled up using global
satellite datasets and models, and then
constrained and verified by atmospheric CO2
concentration measurements.
A Hierarchy of Approaches and Scales
51
Orbiting Carbon Observatory - JPL
52
An Active Carbon Dioxide Mission
53
Climate System
Source WCRP
54
1979
55
2003
56
Photo Keith Echelmeyer 1986
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2007
58
Envisat A New Northwest Passage September 2007
59
Third Assessment Report Arctic Sea Ice There
is increasing evidence that there is a decline in
extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice in the
summer that appears to be connected with the
observed recent Arctic warming. It is not known
whether these changes reflect anthropogenic
warming transmitted either from the atmosphere or
the ocean or whether they mostly reflect a major
mode of multi-decadal variability. Some of this
pattern of warming has been attributed to recent
trends in the Arctic Oscillation however, how
the anthropogenic signal is imprinted on the
natural patterns of climate variability remains a
central question.
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report
60

• Fourth Assessment Report Arctic
• Average Arctic temperatures increased at almost
  twice the global average rate in the past 100
  years. Arctic temperatures have high decadal
  variability, and a warm period was also observed
  from 1925 to 1945.
• Satellite data since 1978 show that annual
  average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7
  (2.1 to 3.3) per decade, with larger decreases
  in summer of 7.4 (5.0 to 9.8) per decade. These
  values are consistent with those reported in the
  TAR.
• Temperatures at the top of the permafrost layer
  have generally increased since the 1980s in the
  Arctic (by up to 3C). The maximum area covered
  by seasonally frozen ground has decreased by
  about 7 in the Northern Hemisphere since 1900,
  with a decrease in spring of up to 15.

Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
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Arctic Sea Ice There is increasing evidence
that there is a decline in extent and thickness
of Arctic sea ice in the summer that appears to
be connected with the observed recent Arctic
warming. It is not known whether these changes
reflect anthropogenic warming transmitted either
from the atmosphere or the ocean or whether they
mostly reflect a major mode of multi-decadal
variability. Some of this pattern of warming has
been attributed to recent trends in the Arctic
Oscillation however, how the anthropogenic
signal is imprinted on the natural patterns of
climate variability remains a central question.
Source WCRP
63
Sea Ice
Surface T
Albedo
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report
64
Open Ocean
Sea Ice
Surface T
Evaporation
Albedo
Low Clouds
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report
65
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Clouds Very Cloudy Topic
Boundary Layer Humidity
Sea Ice
Clouds
SoilMoisture
CCN
Aerosols
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report
67
Water Vapor / Cloud Feedback System
Albedo
Evaporation
Surface/LATemperature
Water Vapor
Clouds
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report
68
General agreement among model results
Temperature change (ºC)
IPCC, 2001
69
Global Climate ChangeA Faustian BargainYet
Grounded in Science Anthropogenic warming and
sea level rise would continue for centuries due
to the timescales associated with climate
processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas
concentrations were to be stabilized.
Source IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
70
Thank you, David Keeling and Leonardo DiVinci
71
Thank you, David Keeling and Leonardo DiVinci
and Goethe
72
Climate System
Source WCRP
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Open Ocean
Sea Ice
Surface T
Evaporation
Albedo
Low Clouds
Source IPCC Third Assessment Report
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Climate Forcings
1750-2000
Paleoclimate Temperature Change
James Hansen, GISS/NASA
77
Abrupt Climate Change?
Changes in the Gulf Stream?
Greenland Ice Sheet Melting?
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