Title: Climate Change: Understanding the Science and Developing Strategies for Action
1Climate Change Understanding the Science and
Developing Strategies for Action
- Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
- Professor of Atmospheric Science
- Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
- Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
- Department of Agronomy
- Faculty Director, University Honors Program
- Iowa State University
- Ames, Iowa 50011
- gstakle_at_iastate.edu
Science Center of Iowa 5 March 2007
2Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
3Outline
- Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
- Radiative forcing
- Simulations of global climate and future climate
change - Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest
- Four components for addressing climate change
Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course or the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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5Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years
Natural cycles
6IPCC Third Assessment Report
7Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2007 380 ppm
8Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
2050 550 ppm
9Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
10Carbon Dioxide and Temperature
Business as Usual 950 ppm
?
11http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
12Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes,
1999 Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
13Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
14Source IPCC, 2001 Climate Change 2001 The
Scientific Basis
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16IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
17El Chichon (1982)
Agung, 1963
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance 1 Watt/m2 in
2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
18NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice
concentration in 1979 at left and in
2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s
indicate a 3 decrease per decade in arctic sea
ice extent.
19Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap
has shrunk more than 20 percent. (Illustration
from NASA) (http//www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qth
inice.asp)
20Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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22Kennedy Space Center
Impact of a 1-m rise in sea level on low-lying
areas
Projected sea-level rise In 21st century 0.5 to
1.0 m
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft)
rise in sea level
Miami
Source Corell, R. W., 2004 Impacts of a
warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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24Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
25http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006
/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
26Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
27Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
28Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Not Natural
29Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global
temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey
bands indicate 68 and 95 range derived from
multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not Nartural
Not Natural
30Source Jerry Meehl, National Center for
Atmospheric Research
31Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005 Increasing destructiveness
of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
Nature, 436, 686-688.
32Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)
Sea-surface temperature
V
V
V
Emanual, Kerry, 2005 Increasing destructiveness
of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years.
Nature, 436, 686-688.
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34IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
35Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
36The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
37The planet is committed to a warming over the
next 50 years regardless of political decisions
Mitigation Possible
Adaptation Necessary
Source National Center for Atmospheric Research
38IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
39IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
40IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy
Makers
41Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest
(My tentative assessment)
- Longer frost-free period (high)
- Higher average winter temperatures (high)
- Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
- More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
- Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and
winter (high) - More (10) precipitation (medium)
- More variability of summer precipitation (high)
- More intense rain events and hence more runoff
(high) - Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
- Longer periods without rain (medium)
- Higher absolute humidity (high)
- Stronger storm systems (medium)
- Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by
models No current trend but
model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
42Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate
Change
- Mitigation policies 2050-2100
- Example reduction in GHG emissions
- Adaptation (long-term) 2015-2050
- Example Developing Iowas competitive economic
advantage - Adaptation (short-term) 2008-2015
- Example redefining climate normals
when needed and scientifically justified - Scenario planning for Iowas Katrina 2007-2100
- Example Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both drought and wildfire
EST personal view
43Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)
If a meteorological variable began departing from
its long-term background near or after 1970 it
may be related to the radiation imbalance and
thereby has a better chance than not of
continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years.
EST personal view
44D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
45D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
46D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
47D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
48D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
49D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
50D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
51D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
52D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
53D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
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56http//www.grida.no/climate/vital/37.htm
57Climate Surprises
- Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation
(Greenland melt water) - Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
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60Kennedy Space Center
Areas subjected to Inundation with a 1 m (3 ft)
rise in sea level
Miami
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62Warming Hole
C
DTmax (JJA)
63North America Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric
Research Principal Investigator
- Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle,
Iowa State University - Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
- Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
- Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratories, USA - Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP,
Italy - Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory, USA - René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
- Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National
Laboratories, USA - Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom
Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research,
USA - Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of
Oceanography, USA - Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
- Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at
Santa Cruz, USA
http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
64Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000
65For More Information
- For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything
you have seen in this presentation, see my online
Global Change course - http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
- Contact me directly
- gstakle_at_iastate.edu
- Current research on regional climate and climate
change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity
under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory - http//rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
- North American Regional Climate Change Assessment
Program - http//www.narccap.ucar.edu/
- For this and other climate change presentations
see my personal website - http//www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/