Changing Geopolitical Demographics

1
Changing Geo-political Demographics Immigration
Issues in Europe,1992-2007 and beyondwith
Parallels to US Immigration
Research, Graphics, and Presentation by
Max Beauregard
Demographics GIS Consulting Services
Data sources, images, and photo credits as noted.
2
Fertility by Country, 2006
The map shows expected number of children born
per woman in her child-bearing years, based on
2006 age-specific fertility rate data. Lower
fertility results in a lower support ratio or
fewer workers (ages 15-64y/o) who must support
more dependents (ages 0-14 and 65y/o).
Results in below replacement levels of
population, or POPULATION LOSS
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Most industrialized countries of the world now
have below replacement birth rates, aka fertility.

• Causes of Declining Fertility
• Availability and acceptance of contraception
• Urbanization (higher costs of raising a family)
• Rise of Feminism (higher rates of female
  participation in the labor force)
• Effects of Declining Fertility
• Declining population
• Population aging (more people at older ages i.e.
  fewer workers per dependents, hence lower
  support ratios.)
• Economic stagnation/decline

4
Fertility for Europe, 2006
The map shows expected number of children born
per woman in her child-bearing years, based on
2006 age-specific fertility rate data. Lower
fertility results in a lower support ratio or
fewer workers (ages 15-64y/o) who must support
more dependents (ages 0-14 and 65y/o).
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Europe is especially affected with a population
loss, so their response has been to open their
borders to attract immigrants, and thereby
preserve their positionof economic
competitiveness.
This policy is not without controversy and
unprecedented social change, as multiple labor
forces with diverse languages and culture begin
to merge at unprecedented levels !!
Thus, the US is not unique in its dilemma to
address complicated immigration issues.
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Immigrant Populationas of Total Population
Source OEDC Factbook 2006
Australia 23.0
Canada 19.3
US 12.3
Organization for Economic Co-operation
Development
UK 8.3
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The European Union (EU) is the world's largest
confederation of 25 independent states. It was
initiated in 1992, although some cooperative
relationships date back to 1951.

• The 1985 Schengen Agreement abolished passport
  control and customs checks were also abolished
  at many of the EU's internal borders.
• Thus, a single space of mobility for EU
  citizens to live, travel, work, and invest is
  being created incrementally over time.
• There are 20 official languages.

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Such a precedent was set 2 years before in 1990
with the reunification of East West Germany.
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25 EU members2007 AdmissionsFuture
CandidateCountries
10
EU 25 2006
The UK willingly does not recognize the EURO
monetary coin, so it maintains its financial
autonomy from other EU members. However, other
economies have yet to mature, so they cannot
yet adopt the standardized currency.
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2007 Admitted Countries
12
Future CandidateCountries
Turkey is a controversial candidate because its
people are Muslim and present EU countries are
predominantly Christian.
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Turkey ???

• However, Turkey's young (23 of population is
  under 15) and well-educated population might act
  as a balance for the increasingly aging
  populations of the current EU.

• Inclusion of Turkeys Muslim population would
  lend acceptance for worldwide multiculturalism
  and cinch Turkeys alignment with the West.

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Accession and Negotiation Timeline by Country for
EU Admission
1950
2010
1990
2004
EU membership
Admission negotiations
15
2004 Admission of the 10 East European countries
to the EU have created numerous situations
resulting from extensive, but allowable internal
migration.
Former Yugoslavia
Albania
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Polish laborers wait on a west London street
corner for temporary employment. Almost 300,000
Poles have migrated to Britain since Poland
joined the European Union in 2004. TOM HEVEZI AP
Source Houston Chronicle
17
6th largest Poland, with 38M people, is slow to
make necessary economic and structural reforms,
so adoption of the EURO is not anticipated until
sometime between 2009-2013.

• Meanwhile, 18 unemployment is the highest in EU,
  so there is pressure for emigration from Poland
  to the UK and others, which have more robust
  economies.

Already an estimated 300K Poles are in the UK,
100K are in Sweden, and another 1M across Europe,
mostly in Germany.
Thus, such a massive redistribution of a
dissimilar labor force dramatically impacts
culture and language for all parties.
18
Spain has a wet foot/dry foot policy for the
Canary Islands, so Moroccans are inundating these
small islands.
19,000 in 20064 X the in 2005
SourceHouston Chronicle
19
The Balkan Wars of 1996-99 dissolved Yugoslavia
into 6 new nations, including Kosovo, formerly a
province of Serbia.
Former Yugoslavia
Albania
20
Dictatorships held ethnically diverse Balkan
populations in tact, but democracy has allowed
them to break into autonomous political units
focused on ethnic loyalty.
21
Fragmented ethnicity overlaps political
boundaries, thus inducing internal migration to
achieve homogeneity.

22
formerYugoslavia,pre-1999
Impoverished Albanians moved en mass into Kosovo
Province in search of jobs and a better life.
Kosovo
23
Border access from Albania was easy through
mountainous passes that were not controlled.
Kosovo
24
War resulted later on, when they were denied
citizenship opportunities and basic civic
rights.Thus, diplomacy to negotiate fairness
and acceptance for all immigrants regardless of
citizenship can prevent destructive civil unrest
that could erupt, even within the US.
Kosovo
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Europe is indeed a diverse community of
cultures and rural/ urban areas that has
historically been isolated by extreme geographic
barriers.

• Yet these are now being dissolved and blended
  because of economic need and facilitated by
  technology and communications improvements.
• Such is the dynamic and changing world of the
  21st Century!

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Natural barriers and borders are being overcome
with communica-tions and technology.
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Degree of self-governance
Each of the countries of the EU are distinctly
different in all aspects of their governance, yet
they are adapting to make the merger function to
promote much-needed economic growth.
 unitary state  devolved state  federacy
 federation
28
Form of government
 presidential republic  semi-presidential
republic  parliamentary republic parliamentary
constitutional monarchy
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Head of State Monarchism and Republicanism
 monarchy  republic
30
Unemployment by Gender
Source OEDC Factbook 2006
Obviously immigrants into the US of both genders
are being absorbed successfully with no negative
consequences on the unemployment rate.
US 5
Organization for Economic Co-operation
Development
East Europe
31
Household net saving rates as a percentage of
disposable household income
Savings rates in France Germany far exceed the
US, despite their considerably higher
unemployment rates, shown in the previous slide.
France
Germany
Canada
Japan
US
Organization for Economic Co-operation
Development
32
Total expenditure on educational institutions for
all levels of education(as a percentage of GDP)
Organization for Economic Co-operation
Development
Note that Mexico is in the top 1/3.
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Urbanized Nightlights of Europe
34
There are many parallels between European
migration, historical patterns of the US, and the
current events occurring between the
US/Texas/Mexico but rarely are they acknowledged
or discussed within a relative and comparable
context. Such a context is now presented.
35
Recent US Immigration Flows are Comparable to
Historical
1915
1990
1830
36
Rates and Volume of US Immigration are Consistent
with History
37
Immigration by decade
38
Hispanic Redistribution within the US
39
Although the levels of immigration since 2000,
and particularly 2004, are most likely higher
than pre-2000, they are NOT grossly out of line
with US history or world patterns.With a 5 US
unemployment rate, these immigrants are obviously
and successfully being absorbed into the US
economy, much to the benefit and enhanced profits
of US businesses.
40
Stronger border control since 2001 and the
recession have also reduced immigrant flows.
recession
2001
41
Indeed economic stability and growth to many
rural US Texas counties has been sustained by
the Hispanic/ immigrant and minority population.
1) Growth to some counties with population gain
is due exclusively to Hispanics, and2) for other
counties with net population loss, such loss
would have been much more severe without the
positive influx of Hispanics.
Without such population gains, local areas would
have had economic decline and probable collapse
of local real estate markets.
42
Population Growth to 214 US Counties is due to
Hispanics.
Net change, 2000-2004
population gain
Pies use a logarithmic scale to illustrate both
large and small values.
gain due to Hispanics
43
Gain in 49 of 151 Texas Counties was Hispanic.
Net change, 2000-2004
Pies use a logarithmic scale to illustrate both
large and small values.
population gain
gain due to Hispanics
44
Another 1193 Counties (38 of 3147) had a net
population loss, 2000-04.
45
Yet the impact of a net total loss was diminished
with a net gain of Hispanics and other minorities.
Pies use a logarithmic scale to illustrate both
large and small values.
46
103 (41) of Texas 254 Counties had Net
Population Loss, 2000-04
These are mostly rural counties, which could have
otherwise had serious real estate collapse.
47
Yet 64 (62) of these 103 mostly rural counties
had a positive increase of Hispanics and other
minorities, which otherwise diminished the impact
of the net population loss.
Pies use a logarithmic scale to illustrate both
large and small values.
48
Thus, the issue of immigration is rarely
discussed within the world context, where the
complicated policy issues faced by the US are
comparable to other countries of the world,
particularly Europe.
49
It was not until September 2006 that World
Immigration was discussed by the United Nations
General Assembly and that appropriate
subcommittees were created for additional
follow-up study.
50
Similarly, US immigration is never discussed in
terms of its positive economic impact to the
receiver areas. These areas could otherwise
encounter serious economic decline, stagnation,
and probable real estate collapse resulting from
declining populations or because of
disproportionate support ratios of workers to
dependents.
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for more information

• Max BeauregardDemographics GISConsulting
  Services713/864-05491429 ColumbiaHouston,TX
  77008mbeauregard_at_houston.rr.com