Jean-Raphael%20Chaponni

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Jean-Raphael ChaponnièreMarc Lautier

• Export catching-up in the Mediterranean
  Countries 

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The weakness The Textile-Clothing industrie in
the MC
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The problem Chinese Competition

• Chinese potential competition in the
  Textiles-Clothing Ind.

To compare export structures of countries i
and j , we use their export vectors
(structures) Eik et Ejk (k1,...,n ). The
 distance  between these vectors (structures)
is given by the cosinus of their angle varying
from 0 (absolute difference) à 1 (absolute
similitude).
2 Chinese export structures are
calculated Direct (China) Structure of EU
Import with quota Undirect (Chine ) structure
of Japan Imports quota-free
Textiles-Clothing Export Structures calculated
for 236 products.
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The solution Increase the Quality of
Manufacturing Exports

• How to measure the quality of an export
  structure ?
• ECU The indicator of Export Catching-Up
• 2) Results
• 3) Analysis of manufacturing export niches

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1) ECU Method

• The idea A manufacturing export is more
  advanced the higher the average income of its
  exporter.
• ECU measures the gap between the overall quality
  of a countrys exports and the quality level of
  the most advanced country.

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ECU is calculated in three steps

• We calculate a product quality index for each
  product as the weighted average of the GDP per
  capita of the exporting countries.
• We term it GDPproduct i
• GDPproduct i S (GDP per capita country j
  Xij/Xiw)
• (With Xij, country j exports of product i,
  and Xiw the total (world)
• exports of product i.)

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(ii) We computes a ECU value for each country j
ECUj value S (GDPproduct i
Xij/Xtj) (With Xtj the total exports of country
j.) (iii) We obtain ECU country j by
calculating an index that ranks each country
between 0 and 1 ECU country j ECUj value
Min ECU value / Max ECU value Min ECU
value (With Min ECU value as the lowest
level of ECU value in the world, and Max ECU
value as the highest.)
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Implications

• ECU is an indicator of the quality gap between
  two countries export structures
• (The larger the gap with the leading country,
  the more backward the export structure)
• In the long run, ECU changes measures the speed
  of the catching up process of the countrys
  exports.

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2) Results
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Regional trends
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G6  South-Korea, Export intensity and Exports Quality

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Quantity and Quality of Exports diverge
in the MC

• NICs 2

• Tunisia

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3) Share of Export Niches in Manufacturing
exports
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Exports Niches Dynamic
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Niches Export Growth

• Consolidation of the existing niches, no creation
  of new niches.
• Concentrated on
• - a limited number of products (50 from 2
  products in Morocco, from 5 products in
  Tunisia).
• - The UE market.
• Where the demand is not dynamic

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No change ? No (trade) future !

• Export growth, but low quality of exports
• No process of export diversification
• Increase of Asian Competition in the EU