GHG projections for the energy sector, transport, industry and waste management: Summary of discussion

1
GHG projections for the energy sector, transport,
industry and waste management Summary of
discussion

• Workshop on emissions projections from Annex I
  Parties
• Bonn, 6-8 September 2004

2
Presentations

• The following countries made presentations at
  this session
• Belgium
• China
• Czech Republic
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Netherlands
• Slovenia
• Turkey
• United States
• The exchange of experience through these
  presentations and subsequent discussions was very
  useful and important.

3
Objectives

• To discuss methods, assumptions, etc and
  dissemination of methodologies
• Share and compare information through
  presentations and discussion is key outcome of
  session
• Value to parties is what they themselves take
  away
• Wide range of very complex issues
• Projections best practice differs from
  inventory

4
Some key points overall

• Transparent presentation of assumptions and data
  was found to be very important.
• For quality GHG projections, clear and sufficient
  presentation of key assumptions and critical data
  may be as important as the modelling process
  itself.
• Also useful to vary key assumptions and identify
  sensitivity of projected emissions
• Varying views on GDP, importance of structural
  issues

5
Some key points overall

• Agreed that projections methodology, choice of
  models etc ultimately matters for Governments
• Discussion of value of common international
  assumptions
• Oil prices, carbon prices etc
• Issues about
• Who provide data
• Timeliness
• Whether Govts would welcome constraint
• But sharing information useful

6
Stationary combustion

• Value of countries consulting with neighbours
• especially re common issues
• Value of having robust and available models
  discussed
• Concerns about whether free and costs of
  adapting/using
• Bottom up models seen as easier to translate
• Discussion of modelling PMs both endogenous and
  exogenous approaches used
• NM issue again- discussion about whether useful
• Many countries focus on WM/WAM for policy choices
• Use of Key Source Analysis/Key driver analysis
  generally supported

7
Stationary combustion

• Value of having complete energy balance
• Discussion of including international emissions
  trading in projections
• Does not change domestic emissions
• But part of analysis of policy choices
• For ETS, it may be too early to evaluate impact
  on emissions
• Saudi Arabia need to model spill-over effects on
  non-Annex I Parties and ways to have win-win
  policies

8
B. Transport

• Emissions from transport should be shown
  separately from the emissions of the rest of the
  energy sector.
• Important to model individual transport modes and
  the selection among modes
• Saudi Arabia emissions taxation in transport gt
  impact on non-Annex I Parties
• Bunker fuels Saudi Arabia it is premature
  Germany no methodological problems Belgium
  need to have for complete energy balances

9
Industry, waste management

• Importance of having data on activity levels and
  emission factors
• Importance of presenting results and assumptions
  clearly.
• F-Gases rapidly changing industry
• Need for reality check on projections