Case Study: The 1995 Kobe, Japan Earthquake

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Case Study The 1995 Kobe, Japan Earthquake
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Plate Tectonic Setting
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MERCALLI DESTRUCTION MAP
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Building on Liquefied Sediment
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KOBE SEISMOGRAMS
Solid Bedrock Water
Saturated Sediments
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Damage To Buildings
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Damage to Infrastructure Roads, Trains, Water,
Sewer, etc.
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Damage to the Pier
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POWER OUTAGE
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Damage to Sewage Treatment Plants
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FIRE!
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• HOW CAN SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION LESSEN THE LOSS OF
  LIFE AND PROPERTY?
• UNDERSTANDING HAZARD AND RISK
• IS IT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT EARTHQUAKES?
• Hazard The actual physical Dangers associated
  with an Earthquake. Shaking, Building Collapse,
  Fire, Liquefaction of sediment, Tsunami.
  Geologists study hazards to understand
• Risk The probability of loss of life and/or
  property. Engineers and Public Officials make
  planning decisions to mitigate (lessen) risk.

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HAZARDS
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TSUNAMI
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To Lessen Risk Scientists Must Be Able To Predict
Earthquake Occurrences

• Two Types of Predictions
• Long Term What is the probability of having a
  certain magnitude quake within a specified time
  interval?
• Short Term An earthquake will occur in the next
  24 hours. Relocate.

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• Long Term Earthquake Prediction Syntheses of
  Geologic and Historical Information
• Plate Tectonic Setting General Fault Activity
• Bedrock Type Controls Wave Amplification

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c) Historical Records San Francisco, 1906
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d) Paleoseimology a prehistoric record of
earthquakes
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Seismic Hazard Maps
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Conditional Probability
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SEISMIC GAPS
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SHORT TERM PREDICTION?