Title: Ex-ante%20impact%20assessment%20support%20for%20public%20policies%20evaluation%20and%20sector%20forecasting%20substantiation%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20authors:%20Dana%20Plavicheanu,
1Ex-ante impact assessmentsupport for public
policies evaluation and sector forecasting
substantiation
authors Dana Plavicheanu,
Remus
Carteleanu
ROMANIA NATIONAL COMMISSION FOR ECONOMIC
FORECASTING
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
2- Introduction
- Romania continues the social and economic reforms
as a new - Member State since January the 1st 2007.
- The main goal of the reforms conception and
promotion is - to ensure a high economic growth which should
allow to reach the - European medium standard of living within 15-20
years
- The Romanian Strategy regarding the
development of the Public Policy System took into
account the recommendations of the Mandelkern
Final Report for a better regulation to achieve a
more efficient administration at both levels (the
national and European level).
CMTEA
2007 JUNE 14-15
3- The reforms elaboration, implementation and
monitoring - have a complex institutional and organizational
work frame which - ensure their coordination, evaluation and
efficiency - Promotion of Public Policies is a necessity for
the reforms intensification to reach the
following goals
- Maintaining and improving the macroeconomic
equilibriums - Accelerating the development rate for reduction
the socio -economic gaps
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
4 - Continuing reforms a necessity for Romania
- Romania, as a new Member State of the European
Union, still has - carrying on reforms (for administration and
justice) - From the economic point of view, there still are
unfinished actions, - such as the property rights situation
- The inter-regional gaps and also those regarding
the EU - medium level are more accentuated in comparison
with other European - states
- Romania participates at the European common
budget for the first - time and has less experience not only in
promoting projects but also in - accession of a significant European assistance
- An efficient use of long term internal
development could not be supported only by
reforms.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
5- General concept of medium term reforms is
already stipulated - and configured in
- Strategic Frame
- Convergence Program
- National Plan of Reforms
- Post-Accession Strategy
- Sectorial-Operational Programs
- Application of the strategic reforms objectives
and directions - is made by Public Policies.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
6- The necessity of the Public Policies drawing up
system - development is underlined also at the EU level
through Lisbon - Strategy, in which the Member States are able to
- use the budgetary planning of the Public Policies
on medium and long term - use the EU initiatives for a better regulation
- use the impact assessment of the Public Policies
- improve the consultations with the civil society
structures for drawing up the Public Policies.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
7- The Public Policies tools
- a wide range of planning and forecasts
methodologies - procedures of public policy decision making
- analysis of the problems
- the development of the solving ways
- the effects assessment due to alternative
solutions - choosing the resources
- implementation planning
- monitoring and assessment.
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8- Public Policy Planning Model where the
macroeconomic impact plays a very important role .
General objective
Specific objective
Operational objective
Macro-impact results
The Public Policy results (Outcomes)
The actions results (Outputs)
Performance indicators
- Function of the methods used
- Economic indicators
- Efficiency indicators
- Effectiveness indicators
- Services quality indicators
- Function of the process
- Investment indicators
- Benefit indicators
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
9- Public Policies process is highly linked by the
forecast phenomenon and because of the economic
changes, the forecast has a higher level of
relativity.
- The forecast methods (for example alternative
modeling) are also used in the ex-ante evaluation
because we can draw up only the impact or the
consequences of the previously defined factors
it results an anticipation exercise of the future
events which is supposed these are the
forecasts effects of the proposed action.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
10- Types of the forecasts methods
FORECAST METHODS
Facto-graphical Methods
Expert Methods
Statistic
Analogical
Interview Brainstorming Delphi Method
Surveys Regression Extrapolation Simulation Monte-
Carlo Method
Historical Mathematic
CMTEA
2007 JUNE 14-15
11Ex-ante impact assessment
- Is an activity made at the beginning of the
Public Policy - formulating process.
- The key-factor is represented by establishing of
what - has to be estimated or evaluated.
- It has a direct link with the forecast methods
through - the modeling exercise.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
12- The place of the ex-ante impact assessment in the
decision making cycle of the Public Policies.
Issue identification
Public Policy Evaluation
Ex-ante Impact assessment of Public Policy
Ex-post evaluation of Public Policy
Public Policy Formulation
Public Policy Monitoring
Public Policy Approval
Public Policy Implementation
Ex-ante Impact assessment of regulations
Preparing the regulation projects
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
13- Ex-ante impact assessment of the Public Policies
is a collection - of tools and methods used in the planning level
during the - preparation of the Public Policies documents.
- The goal is to identify the main
social-economical - consequences which could come after the
implementation of a - public policy and also to the society reaction in
this way. - Ex-ante impact assessment could be divided in
more stages.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
14- Defining the resources and the results for the
alternative solutions - Analyzing the resources and results
- Impact assessment for alternative solutions
- Analyzing the beneficiaries
- Identifying the criteria of decisions making
- Setting the weight of every criteria
- Drawing up of the alternatives in compliance with
the identified criteria - Identifying the best alternatives
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
15- Concerning the area of the approached problem
within the - public policy, there is the possibility to make a
general or detailed - ex-ante impact assessment.
- 1. General ex-ante impact assessment is an
estimation procedure - which used the approach through the qualitative
evaluation method. - 2. Detailed ex-ante impact assessment use the
approach through - the quantitative evaluation method for
identifying the possible - socio-economic consequences.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
16- Quantitative evaluation methods are used for the
- detailed impact assessment (in exceptional
cases) - Cost-Benefit Analysis
- Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.
- Cost-benefit analysis is used just for the
drawing up of - Large and expensive policies
- Investments projects on long term
- Governmental interventions in the commercial
activities - Privatization of the goods which are in the
public property.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
17The Romanian experience in the Public Policy
field
- Setting up of the Public Policy Units within the
General - Secretary of the Government.
- Setting up of the Public Policy Units within
every ministry of - the public administration.
- Adoption of the 775/2005 Government Decision for
the approval - of the Regulatory regarding the procedures of
decision making, - monitoring and drawing up the public policies at
the central level - by which the ministries are asked to make public
policies proposals - in a specific format for all the important legal
documents before - their evaluation.
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18Strategy for Public Policies evaluation
Strategy
Strategy
Reasons exposal/ Informative Note of the projects
Program
Medium term/ Short term Plan
Existing Informative Note of the rules projects
Plan
Existing PPP
Memorandum only for adopting decisions which
come from international treaties/ Negotiations
mandate of different kinds of international
treaties
Memorandum
Public Policies Proposals (PPP)
Informative Note
Informative Note
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
19- National Commission for Economic Forecasting
(NCEF) which is a governmental body with
competence in macroeconomic prognosis according
to the Government Decision regarding the CNP
functioning, is also charged with the impact
assessment on the economic field, among many
others tasks. -
- Within NCEF, there is a Unit for analyzing and
evaluating the - macroeconomic implications of the public policies
which releases - impact studies (study cases) of the effects
evaluation of the public - policies and also for the ex-ante and ex-post
impact assessments.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
20- There is an important connection between the
impact analysis referring to the public policies
and the macroeconomic forecasting (prognosis).
- Being a complex institution, NCEF plays an
important role in analyzing and drawing up the
impacts (study cases, etc) by using its sectorial
forecasts which have a significant role in the
expert analyses.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
21Interdependence between the ex-ante assessment
and NCEF prognosis
Introduction of the private pension
system
- By diversifying the social security
- system give the citizen the possibility
- to extend the insurance over the
- compulsory one
- Ensuring an additional income over
- the receiving one through the public
- pension system
- Ensuring an in-flow capital on the
- internal market
- Increasing the citizens saving rate.
- GDP
- Gross Capital Formation through the increase in
population saving - Reduction the pressure of the populations
disposable incomes on the consumption demand
(with implications on inflation and external
demand).
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
22Real study cases
The main policies and effects
Influenced macro indicators
Reduction of the social security
contribution
- Reducing labor costs means
- competitiveness increasing
- Increasing the profits allocated for
- investments
- Reducing the quota paid by
- employees leads to the increase in
- purchasing power (real wages)
- Reduction of both the labor
- cost and the total cost with
- impact on the production and
- consumption prices
- GDP
- Employment increase
- Real wages increase
- Reduction of the budgetary
- incomes
Increasing of the gross minimum wage
per country
- Dimensioning the monthly complete minimum
consumer basketof goods and services provided
for a good living accepted by society - Dimensioning the social performances and others
which arebased on the minimum wage level.
- Wage gain
- Inflation
- Employment rate
- Population consumption
- Unit Labor Cost.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
23Real study cases
The main policies and effects
Influenced macro indicators
Environmental taxes
- Increasing the funds in order
- to access more European funds
- Ecological reasons
- GDP
- Inflation
- Increasing of budgetary
- incomes.
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15
24- Thank you very much for your attention!
CMTEA 2007 JUNE 14-15