Bosnia%20and%20Herzegovina%20Between%20Transition%20and%20Consolidation%20of%20a%20Liberal%20Democracy:%20First%20Part:%20Stakes%20of%20the%20Transition%20and%20Democratization%20Processes.%20%20Christophe%20Solioz%20The%20Watson%20Institute%20for%20International%20Studies

1
Bosnia and Herzegovina Between Transition and
Consolidation of a Liberal DemocracyFirst Part
Stakes of the Transition and Democratization
Processes.Christophe SoliozThe Watson
Institute for International Studies

Providence, 14 March 2003
2
Overview

• Part One
• The complexity and specificity of a multifacated
  transition process
• Dimensions of democratic consolidation
• International and domestic dimensions of
  democratization and transition processes
• Rethinking the obstacles towards a successful
  ownership process
• Bibliography

3
1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated
transition process

• A convenient starting-point is provided by Rustow
  (1970) who observed that democracy and transition
  are a matter of procedure. Indeed, the change
  from one regime to democracy is not an unvarying
  process but a context-specific one both local
  and international contexts matter.
• Transition presumes a developmental view of
  democracy (Diamond 1999, 16) and is a
  multifaceted and multistep process. It therefore
  requires a dynamic and multilevel model.
• Transition in Central and Eastern Europe may be
  best described in a first approach as a
  simultaneous transition process
• From communism to democracy
• From a command economy to a market economy.

4
1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated
transition process

• Although transition to democracy is both a
  political and economic process, the two sides do
  not necessarily move in step. Progress is
  asymmetrical for a number of reasons, including
  the fact that the (re)establishment of a market
  economy can be more rapidly achieved than the
  dismantling of communist structures of political
  control.
• Vladimir Gligorov (2000) expressed this as a
  double transition in SE Europe i.e. as a
  combination of development and transition
• In Bosnian and Herzegovina, the confusion of
  these two dimensions contributed significantly to
  badly chosen external strategies and explains
  current heavy economic dependence on foreign aid.

5
1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated
transition process

• Moreover, many strategies had little regard for
  the specific Bosnian political and economic
  transition process, as well as in other
  post-Yugoslav republics. For example, these
  strategies forgot that in Yugoslavia
• communist rule was not externally imposed but
  self-driven
• The Soviet-style planned economy progressed after
  1952 to a self-administered socialist market
  system, characterized by the introduction of
  self-administered rights which facilitated the
  transformation from centralized government
  planning.
• Zarko Papic (2001) finalized the transition
  concept, saying that Bosnia and Herzegovina
  currently finds itself confronted with a triple
  transition
• From war to peace
• From a socialist economy to a market economy
• From a dependent country to a self-governing
  state.

6
1. Complexity and specificity of a multifacated
transition process

• The last dimension emphasizes the importance of
  the international dimension of democratization
  and transition, and, considering the specific
  Bosnian case, the transition from a
  soft-protectorate and aid-dependent country to a
  sovereign and sustainable State.
• Thus, the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina
  depends largely on
• Country specific strategies
• A focused strategy for foreign partnership and
  the hand-over of power
• Constructive interaction between foreign actors
  and domestic actors, i.e. a mutual adjustment
  process
• The extent of responsibility taken by Bosnia and
  Herzegovinas citizens for the transition
  process
• Successful regional and European integration.

7
2. Dimensions of democratic consolidation

• Democratization must be understood as a complex
  and long-term dynamic process with a relatively
  open-ended outcome. More specifically, democratic
  consolidation which focuses on the durability of
  rules that are the results of the transition
  processes (Munck 2001) is a process of
  interlocking parts
• Structural consolidation (constitution, political
  institutions, judiciary)
• Representative consolidation (through parties and
  interest groups)
• Attitudinal consolidation (specific and
  widespread support of citizens, culture, etc).
• These three levels influence each other through
  multiple interrelationships. Most fundamental,
  though, in the consolidation of democracies are
  political institutions, especially constitutions
  and the rule of law.

8
2. Dimensions of democratic consolidation

• Focusing on the creation of governments and / or
  constitutions, we may point out four main
  different factors which differ in importance and
  can be combined in different ways (Merkel 1996)
• Historical-constitutional experiences
• Process-oriented explanation
• Action theory
•  Import  approach.
• As in other East-European countries, the
  actor-centered approach explains in the Balkans
  most fundamental political changes. This approach
  focuses on the relevance of the present
  interests of the most powerful actors andf their
  chances to gain or increase power.

9
2. Dimensions of democratic consolidation

• Because of the existing diversity in Central
  Europe, the historical-constitutional and
  process-oriented approach have limited validity.
  Nevertheless, they matter for the Balkans,
  especially for the various post-Yugoslav
  republics.
• Because of the massive intervention of the
  International Community, the  import 
  strategies and more generally the international
  dimension of democratization take on a primary
  role, in the former Yugoslavia in general, and in
  Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in particular.

10
3. International and domestic dimensions of
democratization

• External influences are almost always present in
  different ways, as
• Diffusion effect (contagion, emulation,
  desmonstration effect)
• Direct assistance (active measures to promote
  democracy)
• External pressures (conditional aid and loans,
  fulfilling the  acquis communautaires )
• Sanctions (economic sanctions, pressures,
  political measures)
• Intrusion and imposition (foreign military and
  civil intervention, protectorate).
• Before we go ahead, we have to mention that if
  different decisions had been taken by the
  International Community by the time of the
  breakup of Yugoslavia, pattern, timing and course
  of transition and democratization might well have
  been different!

11
3. International and domestic dimensions of
democratization

• Forced implementation of new rules, without time
  set aside for local adaptation and adjustment, is
  counterproductive. Indeed, the most confident
  analyses on transition and democratization assess
  that
•  Domestic factors play a predominant role in the
  transition  (ODonnell Schmitter 1986, 19)
•  Democracy must be strengthened and improved
  from within  (Diamond 1999, 64). 
• External influences therefore have little impact
  unless the local population adopt the transition
  and democratization process as their own.

12
3. International and domestic dimensions of
democratization

• Paradoxically, external influence may even
  obstruct democratic consolidation and limit the
  sovereignty and responsibility of the designated
  state, in this case Bosnia and Herzegovina we
  may therefore describe Bosnia and Herzegeovina as
  an internationally dependent democracy.
• Additionally, a comprehensive approach must
  incorporate not only the international side of
  democratization but also the intentions and
  actions of relevant domestic groupings, as well
  as the interaction between internal and
  international processes (Whitehead 2001, 15).
• To avoid the failure of imposed strategies and
  models, it is essential
• To take into account Bosnias specific economic
  and political characteristics, rooted in its
  past
• To pass responsibility for enacting transition
  today in the hands of the High Representative
  to Bosnian social and political actors, not
  foreign ones.

13
4. Rethinking the obstacles towards a successful
ownership process in Bosnia

• Bosnia and Herzegovina is not yet a consolidated
  liberal democracy. Worse, it lies somewhere
  half-way between a democracy and an authoritarian
  regime, in a grey zone characterized by somewhat
  disquieting socio-economic performances and sham
  pluralism, only poorly masking the domination of
  an elite that is partly corrupt, partly
  incompetent. So, why ?
• It is inaccurate to describe the process under
  way as change at slow pace, or to attribute it
  only to local obstructionism, corruption, or what
  Papic (2001) has referred to as the dependency
  syndrome.
• One must also look at the size of the financial
  engagement of the International Community, which
  between 1995 and 2000 was some USD 46 to 53
  billions. In view of these figures, the
  cost-effectiveness of the foreign intervention
  leaves much to be desired, in that this massive
  financial assistance has failed to give any
  significant autonomy to the country.

14
4. Rethinking the obstacles towards a successful
ownership process

• We have to reconsider the effectiveness of the
  intervention of the International Community also
  in the light of the burgeoning literature on
  democratization and transition which focused on
  democratization and transition as a domestic
  affair par excellence.
• Here we have to ask
• Why did this expertise so poorly influence the
  operations in the field?
• Why ended capacity building in the opposite of
  what it intended?
• I have described elsewhere the structural defects
  of the International Communitys intervention
  (Solioz 2003). Beyond this, study of the
  interaction between internal and international
  processes will more accurately identify obstacles
  to a successful ownership process in Bosnia and
  Herzegovina. In a forthcoming paper I focus
  mainly on state-level analysis. In the following
  second part I will consider the civil society
  and community spheres.

15
Bibliography

• Badie, Betrand, The Imported State the
  Westernization of the Political Order, Stanford,
  Stanford University Press, 2000, 272 pp.
• Carothers, Thomas, Aiding Democracy Abroad the
  Learning Curve, Washington, DC, Carnegie
  Endowment for International Peace, 1999.
• Diamond, Larry, Developing Democracy Toward
  Consolidation, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins
  University Press, 1999.
• Vladimir Gligorov, Task Force on Economic
  Strategy for South Eastern Europe, New York,
  East-West Institute, June, 2000.
• Huntington, Samuel, The Third Wave
  Democratization in the Late Century, London,
  University of Oklahoma, 1991.
• Merkel, Wolfgang, Instituions and Democratic
  Consolidation in East Central Europe, Madrid,
  Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Ciencas Sociales,
  Working Paper, December, no. 86, 1996.
• Munck, Gerardo L., The Regime Question Theory
  Building in Democracy Studies, World Politics,
  vol. 54, October 2001, pp. 119-44.
• O'Donnell, Guillermo Schmitter, Philippe C.,
  Transitions from Authoritarian Rule. Tentative
  Conclusions about Uncertain Democraties,
  Baltimore, The John Hopkins University Press,
  1986 (1998).

16
Bibliography

• Offe, Claus, Varieties of Transition. The East
  European and East German Experience, Cambridge,
  Polity Press, 1996.
• Ottaway, Marina S. Thomas Carothers, Thomas
  (eds), Funding Virtue Civil Society Aid and
  Democracy Promotion, Washington, DC, Carnegie
  Endowment for International Peace, 2000.
• Papic, Zarko, The General Situation in B-H and
  International Support Policies, International
  Support Policies to South-East European
  Countries Lessons (not) Learned in Bosnia and
  Herzegovina, Sarajevo, Müller, 2001, pp. 17-37.
• Pridham, Geoffrey Agh, Attila, Prospects for
  Democratic Consolidation in East-Central Europe,
  Manchester, Manchester University Press, 2001.
• Rustow, Dankwart A., Transition to Democracy
  Toward a Dynamic Model, Comparative Politics,
  vol. 2, no. 2, 1970, pp. 337-63.
• Solioz, Christophe, Bosnia and Herzegovina the
  Art of the Possible, Ownership Process in
  Bosnia and Herzegovina, ed. by Christophe Solioz
  Svebor Dizdarevic, Baden-Baden, Nomos Verlag,
  2003, pp. 7-23.
• Whitehead, Laurence (ed.), The International
  Dimensions of Democratizations. Europe and the
  Americas. Expanded Edition, Oxford, Oxford
  University Press, 2001.
• These and other updated refences on
  http//www.christophesolioz.ch/links/democratizati
  on.html