DELTASIM A Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay Region

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DELTASIMA Land Use Model for the Tampa Bay Region

• Wade L. White, AICP- Citilabs
• Danny Lamb- Florida DOT

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Agenda

• Why develop a land use model?
• Major elements of the model
• Data requirements
• The DELTASIM process
• Integration with the TBRPM transport model
• Next Steps

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Why Develop DELTASIM

• Land use and transportation systems continue to
  develop at a rapid pace in the Tampa Bay region
• Transport investments clearly have an impact on
  land use development potential, timelines and
  economic competitiveness of the region and vice
  versa
• Quality land use data are finally becoming
  available at a regional level for all counties

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Major Components of DELTASIM

• Enumeration- Disaggregate Data Synthesizer
• Population
• Employer
• Group Quarter
• Hotel/Motel
• School
• Accessibility Calculator
• Parcel Allocation (1.2 million)
• Construction Module
• ZDATA Builder

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Data Requirements

• Population/HH
• ZDATA1
• PUMS (Permanent GQ)
• School Inventory
• Hotel/Motel Inventory
• Employment
• ZDATA2
• InfoUSA datasets
• Transport LOS (skims) for at least 2 years
• Highway (FF CG)
• Transit (walk, peak)
• Composite Impedance

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Data Requirements

• Parcel Data
• TAZ
• FLU CODE
• ELU CODE
• ACRES
• APPRAISED VALUE
• EXISTING DWELLING UNITS
• DRI APPROVED FLAG
• DRI ACTIVE FLAG
• URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY FLAG

• Parcel Attributes (cont)
• SIGNIFICANT lt DRI FLAG
• TCEA FLAG
• WATERFRONT FLAG
• X_COORD
• Y_COORD
• SCHOOL OK FLAG
• EXISTING SCHOOL FLAG
• EXISTING HOTEL/MOTEL FLAG

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The DELTASIM Process

• Operates on 1 year increments
• Full cohort-component simulation with life events
• Births
• Deaths
• Household formation/dissolution
• Children moving out/forming households
• Net in-migration

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The DELTASIM Process

• Business Evolution
• Expansions and/or contractions of employment
• Closing of businesses
• New business formation
• In-migration of businesses
• Relocations

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The DELTASIM Process

• Monte Carlo style simulation operates on
  individual agent choices
• School location choice (school need)
• Residential location choice (HH)
• Group Quarter location choice
• Hotel-Motel location choice
• Employer location choice
• Transition matrices probabilities for agent
  changes

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The DELTASIM Process

• Construction of New Units Forecast through
  Builders Utilities for Residential Commercial
• Evaluates available properties for
• Redevelopment
• New Development
• Subdivision
• All parcel and builder attributes available
  including accessibility
• Available (undeveloped) real estate assessed
  based on historic profile of developer choices
• Considers need and historic vacancy rates
• Considers development policies
• Accessibility

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Integrated with the TBRPM

• Today
• Uses LOS indicators that can be interactive as
  DELTASIM is completely coded in Cube Voyager
• A manual process to put LOS indicators (SKIMS)
  into DELTASIM. Once the process is fully
  validated, it may optionally operate as part of
  the TBRPM job stream.
• Rolls up results to ZDATA format
• Tomorrow
• Turn off roll up process to provides individual
  households/persons/employers/employees for
  eventual activity-based modeling
• Add auto ownership, worker, income evolution
  models for households
• Add property pricing (land rent) modules

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Next Steps

• Re-estimate parameters, coefficients
• Calibrate
• Validation sensitivity testing
• Beta testing with some regionally significant
  projects
• Finalize documentation develop user guide
• Roll it out for local review and national
  critique

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Lets Take a Look at Her!