Implications of Electric Bicycle Use in China: Analysis of Costs and Benefits

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Implications of Electric Bicycle Use in China
Analysis of Costs and Benefits

• Volvo Center Workshop-Berkeley
• 7/24/2006
• Track 1
• Christopher R. Cherry
• PhD Candidate
• Institute of Transportation Studies
• Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
• University of California, Berkeley
• Partnership with Pan Haixiao-Tongji University
• Xiong Jian-Kunming University of Science and
  Technology
• Yang Xinmiao-Tsinghua University

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Outline

• Brief Introduction
• Research Question
• Approach and Methodology
• Data
• Conclusion/Expected Results

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Emergence of Electric Two-Wheelers in large
Chinese Cities

• Most large Chinese cities have banned or heavily
  restricted gasoline motorcycles in the city
  center. In response, electric bicycles and
  motorcycles that can ride in the bike lane have
  gained popularity and mode share.

Bicycle style electric bike (BSEB)
Scooter style electric bike (SSEB)
Sources Jamerson (2004) LuYuan Electric Bike
Company (2006), Yu (2004), China Statistical
Yearbook (2005)
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Emergence of Electric Bicycles in large Chinese
Cities

• These bikes are regulated by speed and size by
  the central government
• What are the effects of these bikes on the
  transportation system?
• Environmental implications
• Energy use and emissions
• -Production and Use
• Hazardous Waste-Lead Acid Batteries
• Safety of electric bikes and others in lanes
• Increased mobility and accessibility

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Research Question

• Do electric bikes provide greater relative
  benefits in terms of mobility than environmental
  costs compared to alternative modes?
• Energy
• Environment
• Safety
• Mobility
• Compared to what modes? Bus and Bike

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Research Approach

• Quantify the costs and benefits of electric
  bicycle and compare to standard bicycle and bus
  to inform appropriate policy on regulation. Case
  Study of Kunming (3M) and Shanghai (14M)

Costs

• Energy Use
• Production, Use

• Environmental Emissions
• Production, Use

City Level Data Electricity Mix Mode
Split Average Speed by Mode
Mortality Morbidity
Lead Emissions
Safety Impacts
Quantify Benefits In terms of increased
Accessibility
Mobility changes
Benefits
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Environmental Impacts-Production
Weight of Electric Bike Materials Weight of Electric Bike Materials Weight of Electric Bike Materials Weight of Electric Bike Materials Weight of Electric Bike Materials
  BSEB   SSEB  
Total Steel 18.15 46.1 26.18 46.5
Total Plastic 5.67 14.4 15.22 27.0
Total Lead 10.28 26.1 14.70 26.1
Total Fluid 2.94 7.5 4.20 7.5
Total Copper 2.55 6.5 3.46 6.1
Total Rubber 1.14 2.9 1.22 2.2
Total Aluminum 0.52 1.3 0.58 1.0
Total Glass 0.00 0.0 0.16 0.3
Total Weight 41.25   65.73  
         
Associated Energy and Emissions of Manufacturing Processes Associated Energy and Emissions of Manufacturing Processes Associated Energy and Emissions of Manufacturing Processes Associated Energy and Emissions of Manufacturing Processes Associated Energy and Emissions of Manufacturing Processes
Energy Use (tonne SCE) 0.061   0.077  
Air Pollution (SO2) (g) 131   141  
Air Pollution (PM) (g) 84   89  
Greenhouse Gas (CO2eq)        
Waste Water (kg) 206   222  
Solid Waste (kg) 378   493  

• Production Energy Use and Emissions
• Raw Materials
• Assembly Processes
• Assumes 5 batteries over lifespan, and 3 sets of
  tires (10 year lifespan)
• Note does not (yet) include solid waste from
  disposal or energy/pollution impacts of
  non-ferrous metal mining, glass or battery acid
  manufacturing

Sources China statistical yearbook (2004, 2005),
China industrial yearbook (2004), China Data
Online, Mao et al. (2006), Price et al. (2001)
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Environmental Impacts-Use

• E-bike Energy Use
• For example 350W motor, 48V/14 Ah battery, 50km
  range
• CurrentPower/Voltage350W/48V7.3 A
• Drain Time14Ah/7.3A1.9 hours
• EnergyPowerTime350W1.9h670Wh0.67kWh
• Energy/Distance0.67Wh/50km0.13Wh/km
• 1.3kWh/100km
• 6.6 electricity transmission loss (national
  average)
• 50,000 km life695kWh0.085 tonne SCE
• Emissions from Electricity Production
• Kunming1 52 hydro, 48 coal
• Shanghai 2 hydro, 98 coal
• All China 15 hydro, 75 coal, 8gas, 2nuclear

Electric bike Emissions (g/km) Electric bike Emissions (g/km) Electric bike Emissions (g/km)
Kunming Shanghai
SO2 0.066 0.137
NOX 0.015 0.031
PM 0.0033 0.007
Carbons 6.105 12.808

1. China Statistical Yearbook 2005, Energy
   Foundation China 2005

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Environmental Impacts-Lead

• Battery Pollution
• 95 of electric bikes use lead acid batteries
• Lead batteries last about 300 recharges or 1-2
  years (10,000 km)
• China Lead Acid Battery Recycling/Loss Rates1
• 4.8 Loss Rate During Manufacture
• 27.5 Loss Rate During Mining, Smeltering and
  Recycling
• 62 Recycling Rate
• 36V (10.3kg), 48V (14.7kg) lead content
• 36V-3.214 kg lost during manufacture, 3.914 kg
  lost due to low recycle rate
• 48V-4.689 kg lost during manufacture, 5.586 kg
  lost due to low recycling rate
• Electric bikes indirectly emit 712-1028mg/km into
  environment!
• If 100 recycled, still 321-469mg/km into
  environment
• For Sake of Comparison-in the USA
• 4 loss from virgin production, 2 from recycling
  and 1 from manufacturing
• A 7.9L/100km (30mpg) car running on leaded fuel
  emits 33mg/km

1Mao et al. (2006) 2Lave et al.(1995)
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Safety Impacts

• One of the issues cited for regulation
• China Bicycle Association1
• Crash Rate is 0.17 for E-Bike (crashes/veh pop)
• Crash Rate is 1.6 for cars
• Kunming
• 2005-171,000 ebikes2 -98 crashes, 102 injuries, 5
  fatalities3
• 0.05 crash rate
• 2400 vkt/year (survey data)
• 0.012 fatalities/1,000,000 vkt
• Zhejiang province 2004

1 Ribet (2005), 2 Kunming Public Security
Bureau-Vehicle Registration Division, 3 Kunming
Public Security Bureau-Traffic Safety Division, 4
Secondary source Zhejiang Public Security Bureau,
Zhejiang Bicycle Association, 5 Zhejiang and
China Statistical Yearbooks 2005 6 10,000
vkt/year/veh assumed for motor vehicles, average
of Kunming and Shanghai survey data for bicycle
and e-bike used for two-wheelers
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Mobility

• Mobility can be defined in terms of speed
• Measure operating speed of electric motorcycle
  and compare to other modes
• Floating vehicle studies
• Travel time savings can be calculated using value
  of time methodology
• We can also use mobility as a proxy for
  accessibility

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GPS Travel Time Study
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GPS Travel Time Study-Kunming
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Speed Distribution PDF

• From Secondary Data
• Average Bus Speed1,2
• Kunming-16km/hr
• Shanghai-lt20km/hr

Kunming University of Science and Technology
(2005), Shanghai transit agency
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Mobility to Accessibility

• Mobility can be defined in terms of speed, but
  accessibility is measured in the number of
  opportunities reached in a specific amount of
  travel time
• Given land use data and average travel speed on
  links, accessibility differences can be identified

Image source Cervero (2005)
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Survey of Two Wheeler Users

• Travel Survey in Shanghai and Kunming
• In order to calculate the difference in
  transportation costs and benefits, mode shift and
  vehicle use characteristics must be identified.
• Travel Diary of previous day (Tuesday through
  Thursday)
• How many trips are made per day
• What is the average vehicle-kilometer-traveled
  per day/week/year
• Determine alternative mode if e-bike was not
  available
• Demographics of users
• Identify travel time and distance of all modes
  and trips
• Can compare time savings if alternative modes
  were taken
• Survey Bicycle Users, Electric Bike Users and LPG
  scooter (Shanghai)
• overall sample size 1200

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Preliminary Descriptive Statistics

• Average VKT for Environmental Analysis and
  Mobility Valuation

Shanghai Shanghai Shanghai Kunming Kunming
Bike E-bike LPG Bike Ebike
Number of trips 1.98 1.94 2.01 2.23 2.53
Trip Length (km) 4.29 4.84 6.65 3.37 3.62
Weekday VKT 8.51 9.41 13.33 7.51 9.16
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Descriptive Statistics

• Stated Mode Preference for Comparative
  Environmental Analysis

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Descriptive Statistics

• Most People Indicate that they choose e-bike
  because of speed, but dont travel (much)
  farther.

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Why Do We Care?

• We tolerate environmental externalities only
  because of improved mobility!
• Research Approach
• Costs increased emissions, battery pollution,
  and safety
• Benefit reduced travel time/improved
  accessibility
• Case Study of Kunming and Shanghai
• Policy Implication
• Rather than ban electric bikes-accurately price
  externalities
• Lead battery taxpull incentive to develop
  better lead battery or levels the economic
  playing field of NiMH or Li batteries
• Clean up lead industry

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Conclusion and Expected Results

• Policy decisions being made on perceived costs of
  electric bikes
• This research
• Provides a framework to analyze a new mode in
  this context
• Identifies use characteristics of this new,
  influential mode
• Classifies costs that can be priced
• I expect that this mode will outperform most
  other modes (except perhaps a bicycle) in terms
  of low externalities and high mobility gains,
  with the exception of lead emissions

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Still Ahead

• Public Health Impact Analysis of Power Plant
  Emissions
• Thorough Analysis of Survey Data
• Trip Length and Frequency by Purpose
• Mode Choice Modeling?
• Identification of Use/Environmental
  Characteristics of Bus and Bike Modes for
  comparative analysis

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Questions?

• Working Papers/Conferences
• Weinert, J., C. Cherry, Z.D. Ma. An Analysis of
  Key Factors for the Rapid Growth of Electric
  Bikes in China. EVS22-The 22nd International
  Battery, Hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
  Symposium and Exhibition. Yokohama, Japan.
  October 23-28, 2006
• Cherry, C., J. Weinert, Z.D. Ma. The
  Environmental Impacts of Electric Bikes in China.
  TRB?
• Cherry, C. The Costs and Benefits of Electric
  Bike Use in China. WCTRS 2007.
• Chris Cherry
• cherry_at_berkeley.edu
• www.ce.berkeley.edu/cherry

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Supplemental Slides
1Maramba et al (2003), 2Suplido et al (2000), 3
US EPA (1997) 4Wang et al (2006)
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Environmental Impacts

• Health Impacts of Lead
• WHO/CDC Lead Blood Concentration Guidelines
• Men 40 µg/dL, Women 30 µg/dL, Children 10 µg/dL
• Population near recycling plant1
• 20 for adults, 30 for children
• Workers and families of battery maintenance and
  recycling2
• 330 for adults, 400 for children
• First order approximation of fiscal impact would
  be costs of hospitalization
• 23 of individuals near recycling plant have
  history of hospitalization vs. 4 of control
• US EPA3 Quantify Health Effects of increased
  blood lead levels

1Maramba et al (2003), 2Suplido et al (2000), 3
US EPA (1997) 4Wang et al (2006)
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Environmental Impacts

• Converting Emissions into Intake
• Intake Fraction-A methodology to calculate
  exposure
• The fraction of pollutants emitted that people
  eventually inhale-unitless
• iFf(mass emitted, population, breathing rate,
  concentration)
• Map concentrations to populations using emissions
  modeling
• CALPUFF dispersion model calibrated and used in
  Chinese context1,2,3
• From dispersion models, regression analysis was
  performed and iF calculated as a function of
  population distribution and climatic conditions
  at a power plant

SO2 SOX NOX PM1 PM3 PM7 PM13
4.80E-06 4.40E-06 3.50E-06 1.00E-05 6.10E-06 3.50E-06 1.80E-06
1Li et al (2003), 2Zhou et al (2003), 3Zhou et al
(2004)
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Impact area of Qujing Power Plant
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Environmental Impacts

• Converting Intake into Public Health Effects
• Intake Fraction concentration changes
  mortality and morbidity rates
• Concentration Response ?CC(eb?P-1)
• bln(relative risk)/(change in pollutant)
• Relative Risk Factor (X increase in mortality
  per µ/m3 concentration increase)

1Xu et al (1995) 2Brajer et al (2003)
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Descriptive Statistics