Glenn Austin, Transition Manager

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Glenn Austin, Transition Manager AMS Corporate
Forum Washington, DC March 9-10, 2006
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Outline

• Background
• Current Capability
• Examples and Feedback
• Planned Enhancements
• Long-term Goals
• Opportunities

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Background
VISION To meet customer and partner needs for
high quality, accessible, and reliable digital
weather, water, and climate services.
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Current CapabilityCollaborative-Forecasting
Process
National Centers Model Guidance

• Interactive
• Collaborative
• Information Oriented

High Resolution Grids
Local Digital Forecast Database
Field Offices
National Centers
Collaborate
Data and Science Focus
NWS Automated Products
User-Generated Products
National Digital Forecast Database
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
Digital
Text
Graphic
Voice
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Current Capability

• Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal
• Faster access to information in more convenient
  formats through new pathways.
• Fulfills NRC recommendation
• Provide data and products in digital form.
• (Fair Weather Report June 2003)

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Current Capability
The public, emergency managers and city planners
use graphic products for detailed forecasts

• More weather data
• Higher resolution forecasts
• Visual displays of probability
• User-defined products create business
  opportunities

Different Products for Different Customers
Commercial weather companies, emergency managers,
and others use grids to generate tailored
products
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
Radio stations public read text forecasts
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Current CapabilityProduction

• Experimental elements
• QPF
• Snow Amount
• Sky Cover
• Significant Wave Height

• Operational elements
• Maximum Temperature
• Minimum Temperature
• Temperature
• Dew Point
• Probability of Precipitation
• Weather
• Wind Direction
• Wind Speed
• Apparent Temperature
• Relative Humidity
• as of 3/15/06

Operational experimental elements available for
CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii,
Guam
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Current CapabilityDistribution/Access

• FOS Server Access Service
• Anonymous ftp
• Free software developed by the Meteorological
  Development Laboratory decodes GRIB2 files and
  supports conversion to netCDF or GIS shapefiles
• Experimental XML Web Service
• Web Graphics

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Current CapabilityAssessment

• Monthly, point-based verification available,
  comparing surface observations and operational
  NDFD forecast elements
• NDFD forecast element verification scores
  comparable to accuracy of legacy NWS forecasts
  and model guidance

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Current CapabilityArchive

• Operational NDFD elements available from NCDC
  through
• Hierarchical Data Storage System (HDSS)
• http//hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsse
  lect
• NOAA-National Operational Model Archive and
  Distribution System (NOMADS)
• http//nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?nameaccess
  ndfd

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Katrinas Eye Forecast to Pass over New Orleans
Forecast issued Saturday morning Aug 27
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Apparent TemperatureJanuary 2006
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Public Feedback

• As a member of a fire department and EMS service
  we must constantly be aware of weather conditions
  and how they are going to change. We use the
  graphical forecasts to prepare for changing
  weather.
• I work as a Facilities Director for a juvenile
  correctional facility. We maintain 18 buildings
  and grounds. For scheduling of staff for snow
  removal or boiler plant shutdowns, your service
  is quite valuable.
• I love the ability to look at a forecast for a
  particular time period. This should be extremely
  valuable for us as farmers to know predicted
  cloud cover and precip. chance during the course
  of the day.

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Your Feedback

1. Are you accessing or using the NDFD information?
2. Is the information helping you achieve the
   results you need to satisfy your, or your
   customers, needs?
3. If so, what positive impacts are you willing to
   share?
4. If not, what else can we do to help?

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Unmet User Needs

• Relay critical weather information faster and
  more efficiently
• Provide higher spatial and temporal resolution
• Support decision-making by making data more
  interoperable
• More hazardous weather information in digital
  formats

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Planned Enhancements

• Add as experimental elements during the next 12
  months
• Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities
  from the Tropical Prediction Center
• National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2
  from the Storm Prediction Center
• Fire Weather Forecast Parameters
• Elements for Alaska

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Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed
ProbabilityHurricane Wilma Oct 2005
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Planned Enhancements

• Improve over the next 12 months
• Accuracy
• Expand Guidance
• e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS
• Produce Gridded Verification
• Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields
• Resolution
• Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour
  resolution for Days 1-3
• Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7

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Planned Enhancements

• Improve over the next 12 months
• Availability (reliability)
• Transition to operational status XML web service
• Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9
  uptime)
• Consistency
• Improve and standardize forecasters grid-editing
  tools
• Modify collaboration thresholds and better
  procedures

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Long-term Goals

• Increase spatial and temporal resolution
• Expand horizontal domain offshore and
  internationally
• Add a vertical dimension (aviation)
• Include more probabilistic information
• Add downscaled high-impact weather information
• Analysis of Record (objective analysis)

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Long-term Goals

• Establish NDGD
• e.g., UV Index, probabilistic storm surge
• Create GIS Map Service
• Add NDFD to CONDUIT and NOAAPORT
• Interface with decision-assistance tools
• Establish one-stop shopping
• e.g., NDFD, Warning polygons, Radar
• Evolve into NOAA-wide Environmental Information
  Repository

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Supply Chain

• NWS e.g., NDFD
• Retailers e.g., CWSA, others
• Customers
• Success factor Frequent exchange of data to know
  customers demands
• e.g., types of data, formats, consumption rates,
  etc.

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Business Opportunities

• Like software, music, and literature, free open
  source data comes at a price (i.e., data isnt
  everything and support may be what a customer
  needs.)
• Your value-added adaptation is often required to
  fit specific customers needs (especially large
  complex organizations with weather- sensitive
  operations.)

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Questions, Comments?

• glenn.austin_at_noaa.gov
• 301-713-1858 x150
• http//weather.gov/ndfd/