WTO Accession: What Do We Know, What Have We Learned, and How to Move Forward'

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WTO Accession What Do We Know, What Have We
Learned, and How to Move Forward.

• Simon J. Evenett
• University of Oxford
• simon.evenett_at_sbs.ox.ac.uk and www.evenett.com
• GTZ and World Bank Workshop, Berlin

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Contents of this presentation

• What do we know about the WTO accession process?
• What do we know about the effects of WTO
  accession?
• Implications for policy-making, donors, and the
  international development institutions.
• Sources for this presentation recent GTZ WB
  workshop and ongoing IDRC-funded research with
  Maxine Kennett (IDEAS) and Jonathan Gage (OECD).

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Claims about the WTO accession process.

• Why do countries say they want to join the WTO?
• Concerns raised about negotiating accession
• Price is too high including being asked to sign
  WTO commitments and WTO- rights.
• Price is growing
• Negotiations are taking longer to complete
• Cost and complexity of negotiations is high and
  growing

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Claims about the WTO accession process.

• Why do countries say they want to join the WTO?
• Concerns raised about negotiating accession.
• Attitudes of some industrialised countries
  tough love etc.
• Be aware of an in-built bias in the discourse.
• But what do we know about the obligations taken
  on by acceding nations?

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Length of time is growing
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Type of commitments

• Market access commitments in agricultural
  products.
• Market access commitments in non-agricultural
  products.
• Service-sector related commitments.
• Other so-called specific commitments.

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Average agricultural tariff rates
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Average non-agricultural tariff rates
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Number of service sector commitments (max 30)
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Type of specific commitments

• Statements of fact.
• Obligations to abide by existing WTO rules.
• Obligations not to have recourse to specific WTO
  provisions (WTO minus rights)
• Specific transition periods.
• Authorisations to temporarily depart from WTO
  rules.
• Obligations to abide by commitments not contained
  in WTO Multilateral Agreements (WTO plus)

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Number of specific commitments
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Types of specific commitments
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What do we know about effects of WTO accession?

• On imports and exports.
• On FDI.
• On domestic reform.
• On governance.
• On social, environmental, and poverty-related
  matters.

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Effects of WTO accession on trade.

• Increases overall trade in non-agricultural goods
  (Rose Subramanian and Wei).
• These studies say nothing about the mechanisms at
  work.
• Recent work has highlighted importance of
  improved market access to Quad countries
• Falling MFN rates (Bulgaria).
• Locking-in preferential market access (Ecuador).
• Quantitative significance of accession.

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Implications for policymaking, donors, and IFIs

• Realistic expectations about the effects of WTO
  accession and development of negotiating
  priorities would be strengthened by ex-post
  analyses of the effects of prior accessions on
  peer nations.
• Importance of complementary measures.
• Mapping from initial conditions to negotiating
  prioritiesare there any Golden Rules?

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Implications for policymaking, donors, and IFIs

• Identify models for organising accession-related
  measures within developing countries
• Lessons from peer accession countries.
• Identification of a core of human capital skills,
  information resources, and external expertise
  necessary.
• Establish development value (if any) of WTO
  and WTO- commitments.
• Identify alternatives for demandeurs.
• Establish principles for transition periods and
  TRTA.