Electoral Laws Under Extreme Conditions: The Case of Africa

1
Electoral Laws Under Extreme Conditions The
Case of Africa

• David Backer
• Ken Kollman
• University of Michigan
• presented at
• Democracy Seminar Series
• Electoral Institute of Southern Africa
• January 21, 2003

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Agenda

• Project Origins
• Aims
• Sources
• Data
• Missing Data
• Measures
• Elections in Africa
• Comparative Analysis
• Discussion
• Looking Ahead

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Project Origins

• Chhibber Kollman (APSA 1998)
• Party aggregation, i.e., relationship between
  local and national party system
• Dependent variable effective number of political
  parties
• Principal explanatory factor distribution of
  fiscal resources across levels of government
• Data from U.S. and India
• Chhibber Kollman (forthcoming 2003)
• Addition of data from U.K. and Canada

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Aims

• Explore applications of Kollman Chhibber to
  African cases
• Gather details on electoral systems and party
  systems in Africa
• Build archive of African electoral data
• Assess impact of political environment on
  electoral outcomes, with reference to Africa

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Sources

• Books
• Elections in Africa
• (Nohlen, Krennerich Thibaut 1999)
• Democracy and Political Change in Sub-Saharan
  Africa
• (Wiseman 1990)
• Politics of Opposition in Contemporary Africa
• (Olukoshi 1998)
• Electoral Territoriality in Southern Africa
• (Rule 2000)
• Voting for Democracy
• (Daniel, Southall Szeftel 1999)
• Electoral Systems and Democratization in Southern
  Africa
• (Reynolds 1999)
• Rise and Fall of Nigerias Second Republic
• (Falola Ihonvbere 1985)
• African Democracies and African Politics
• (Salih 2001)

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Sources

• Official Sources
• Electoral Commissions
• Government Websites
• On-Line Resources
• Adam Carrs Election Archives
• Electionworld.org
• Electionguide.org
• Electionresources.org
• Democraf.com
• IPU
• IFES
• Organizations
• EISA
• Personal Collections
• Judy Geist (Kenya)

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Data

• National
• 47 countries
• 299 elections
• Seat allocations, by party
• Votes, by party (where possible)
• Turnout (where possible)
• District-Level
• 9 countries
• 30 elections
• 3,415 contests
• Votes by candidate (with party affiliation)
• Turnout (where possible)

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District-Level Data
Botswana 1969, 1974, 1979 1984, 1989, 1994 1999
Burkina Faso 1997
The Gambia 1997
Kenya 1963, 1969, 1974, 1979 1983, 1988,
1992 1997, 2002
Lesotho 1993 1998 2002
Ghana 1996 2000
Zimbabwe 1990 1995 2000
Zambia 1991 1996 2001
Malawi 1999
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Missing Data

• National
• Seats 0 countries, 0 elections
• Votes 24 countries, 41 elections
• District-Level (Single-Member)
• 20 countries
• 60 elections
• 9,226 contests
• District-Level (Other Electoral Systems)
• 13 countries
• 56 elections
• ???? contests

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Missing District-Level Data
Burundi 1965 Central African Republic 1993,
1998 Comoros 1972, 1992, 1993, 1996 Congo 1992,
1993, 2002 Ethiopia 1995, 2000 Gabon 1990, 1996,
2001 Gambia 1966, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987,
1992 Ghana 1956, 1969, 1979 Lesotho 1965,
1970 Malawi 1994 Mali 2002 Nigeria 1959, 1964,
1979, 1983, 1992, 1999 Sierra Leone 1962, 1967,
1973, 1977 Sudan 1953, 1958, 1965, 1968, 1986,
1996, 2000 Swaziland 1993, 1998 Tanzania 1995,
2000 Togo 1958, 1994, 1999, 2002 Uganda 1962,
1980, 1996, 2001 Zambia 1964, 1968 Zimbabwe 1985
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Measures

• Vote and seat shares
• Effective number of political parties
• j jth district i ith party
• d number of districts n number of parties
  receiving votes
• SF ratio 3rd place votes vs. 2nd place votes

National
District
District Average
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Effective Number of Political Parties
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Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Choice of
Electoral System -
47 Countries
22 Single-Member
20 PR
8 Single- and Multi-Member
5 Mixed
21 Multi-Member
Note 22 countries have changed their electoral
system 7 have employed three systems.
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Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Opportunities
for Competition -
47 Countries
299 Elections
183 Multi-Party
7 No Parties
109 One-Party
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Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Multi-Party
Elections by System -
47 Countries
183 Multi-Party Elections
81 Single-Member
12 PR
25 Single- and Multi-Member
14 Mixed
51 Multi-Member
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Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- One-Party
Elections by System -
32 Countries
109 One-Party Elections
29 Single-Member
44 PR
12 Single- and Multi-Member
3 Mixed
21 Multi-Member
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Elections in Sub-Saharan Africa- Overview of
Multi-Party Contests -
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Impact of Political Environment on Elections in
Sub-Saharan Africa
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Impact of Political Environment on Elections in
Sub-Saharan Africa- Multi-Party Elections -
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Elections and the Political Environmentin
Sub-Saharan Africa
Note Averages of Freedom House scores, which
range from 1 (best) to 7 (worst).
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Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan
Africa- Competitiveness -
22
Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan
Africa- Party Systems -
23
Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan
Africa- Third Party Strength -
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Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan
Africa- Winners the Local Party System -
25
Single-Member District Elections in Sub-Saharan
Africa- Third Parties the Local Party System -
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Comparative Analysis- Local Party Systems Around
the World -
27
Comparative Analysis- Local Party Systems Around
the World -
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Comparative Analysis- Local Party Systems in
Africa -
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Discussion

• Conventional image of African elections
• ban on opposition parties
• boycotts
• suppression of political activity
• single-party dominance
• attenuated competition
• Underappreciated phenomena
• heterogeneity of outcomes
• domination fragmentation within local party
  systems

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Discussion

• Winner-take-all electoral systems (i.e.,
  single-member districts) not necessarily less
  favorable to competition
• highest share of votes for opposition parties
• similar share of seats for opposition parties,
  despite premium to top party
• Inverse-U relationship between political
  environment and national party system
• Patterns of electoral results in Africa not so
  different from those in established democracies,
  except with respect to the variability of outcomes

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Looking Ahead

• Data
• compilation of missing historical results
• updating with latest results on an ongoing basis
• standardize reporting by individual countries
• timely
• detailed
• complete
• accessible
• user-friendly format
• Utilization Issues
• effective dissemination ? widely available
  public resource
• relevance to policy-making and research

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Looking Ahead

• Audiences
• government officials
• international policy-makers
• academics
• think tanks
• NGOs
• Research Issues
• influence of electoral systems on political
  competition
• nature and evolution of party systems
• impact of political environment on electoral
  outcomes
• comparative analysis
• within Africa
• Africa vs. developing democracies
• Africa vs. established democracies