Elkhorn Slough Tidal Marsh Plan: Possible Lessons from the Bay Area Wetland Ecosystem Goals Project

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Elkhorn Slough Tidal Marsh PlanPossible Lessons
from the Bay Area Wetland EcosystemGoals Project

• Joshua N. Collins
• San Francisco Estuary Institute
• josh_at_sfei.org

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Serious Work Abundant Help

• Carl Wilcox, Ca Dept. of Fish and Game
• Peggy Olofson, SF Bay Water Board
• Mike Monroe, EPA Region 9

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Basic Tenets

• There will be as much change in the future as
  there was in the past.

The question is what do we need?
The answer keeps changing.
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Basic Tenets

• The answer keeps changing.

All natural resources are actively managed or
passively impacted by people to some extent.
Management priorities change.
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Basic Tenets

• The answer keeps changing.

Goals and expectations need to be adjusted for
new information about changing conditions.
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Basic Tenets

• The answer keeps changing.

The effects of people may have become so
pervasive that the past is no longer the key to
the future.
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Basic Tenets

• The answer keeps changing.

Landscapes are dynamic the uncertainty needs to
be managed.
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Basic Tenets

• Call it a project, but its really a program.

The product is not a plan, its a process.
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Basic Tenets
The product is not a plan, its a process.
Ecosystem management is an ongoing public debate
based on enough empirical data to provide
adequate certainty about management effects.
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Basic Tenets

• Ecosystems dont care people do.

Knowledgeable people care, and caring people can
change the world.
Eco-system management is Ego-system management.
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Basic Tenets

• Get Real

Decide what to change and how to measure progress
(define the x-axis).
Design a process for converting data into
management response, and test the process with
real data.
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Basic Questions

• What do we need to do?

Protect the best restore the rest!
The best and rest of what? What are the
tradeoffs? What are the most important
eco-services and how can they be managed?
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Basic Questions

• How do we measure progress?

Inventory habitats, monitor their selected
services (compare management actions to ambient
conditions), and survey public sentiment.
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Basic Questions

• How do we proceed?

4 Steps to Ecosystem Management
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4 Steps toEcosystem Management

1. Develop principles and guidelines.

Landscape restoration guidelines should address
the ideal form, structure, distribution, and
associations of major habitat types, with
reference to their interactions and formative
processes.
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4 Steps toEcosystem Management

1. Develop principles and guidelines.

Landscape restoration guidelines should be based
on quantitative studies of the effects of people
and natural processes on historical habitat
change.
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4 Steps toEcosystem Management

1. Develop restoration guidelines.
2. Set quantitative habitat goals.

Make maps of possible future conditions based on
the guidelines and existing management options.
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4 Steps toEcosystem Management

1. Set regional habitat goals.
2. Set quantitative habitat goals.
3. Adjust policies, programs, and projects as tools
   to achieve the goals.

The process of governance must enable managers to
change what they do.
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4 Steps toEcosystem Management

1. Set regional habitat goals.
2. Set quantitative habitat goals.
3. Adjust policies, programs, and projects as tools
   to achieve the goals.
4. Measure progress toward the goals (and adjust the
   goals for new ideas).

Governance must be informed by a program of
systematic observation and modeling.
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How to Set Habitat Goals

• Assemble a team of environmental managers,
  scientists, and engineers.

Scientists need to be mindful of budgets and
schedules.
Managers need to give scientists time to think.
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How to Set Habitat Goals

• Define the scope of ecosystem goals.

Ecosystems have natural and social dimensions
that vary between services and over time.
In this case, the tidal marsh problem of Elkhorn
Slough is the center of the ecosystem of
interest.
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How to Set Habitat Goals

• Define the scope of ecosystem goals.

These tidal marshes are embedded in watersheds
the linkages must be considered.
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How to Set Habitat Goals

• Understand the environmental past, the present,
  and change.

History can explain the present and help us
forecast the future (maybe).
History is common ground. The history of a place
unites the people who live there.
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How to Set Habitat Goals

• Use everything anyone knows.

Consider what is known as fact, can be inferred
from fact, or is mostly expert guesswork.
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How to Set Habitat Goals

• Its OK to think ecologically.

Materials cycle and energy flows across
jurisdictional lines, fence lines, and even
watershed boundaries.
Visualize processes that account for the problem
that needs to be solved.
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How to Set Habitat Goals

• Make maps of the past, present, and needed future
  habitats.

Maps help us think well together about the land
and the life it should support.
Map more detail than you think you need.
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How to Implement

• Start planning for implementation before the
  goals are set.

Focus on project performance in context of
ambient status and trends.
Begin technical review of projects at their
conceptual design stage.
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How to Implement

• Report frequently to the public.

Interim products (even incomplete answers) keep
people interested.
Public involvement builds public support.
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In summary
Develop principles and guidelines based on
historical patterns of landscape change.
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In summary
Develop principles and guidelines based
historical patterns of landscape change.
Answer the question how much of what habitats
are needed where, and why?
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In summary
Develop principles and guidelines based
historical patterns of landscape change.
Answer the question how much of what habitats
are needed where, and why?
Consider linkages between selected habitats and
their supporting processes.
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In summary
Develop principles and guidelines based
historical patterns of landscape change.
Answer the question how much of what habitats
are needed where, and why?
Consider linkages between selected habitats and
their supporting processes.
Make a map of the answer(s), regardless of
jurisdictional boundaries or property lines.
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In summary
Develop principles and guidelines based
historical patterns of landscape change.
Answer the question how much of what habitats
are needed where, and why?
Consider linkages between selected habitats and
their supporting processes.
Make a map of the answer(s), regardless of
jurisdictional boundaries or property lines.
Turn public policies, programs, and projects into
ways to achieve the goals.
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Thinking about Elkhorn Slough Tidal Marshes

• Marsh evolution depends on supplies of inorganic
  sediment. How have the supplies changed?

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Thinking about Elkhorn Slough Tidal Marshes

• Marsh evolution depends on supplies of inorganic
  sediment. How have the supplies changed?

Marsh evolution depends on depositional
environments. How has hydrology changed?
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Thinking about Elkhorn Slough Tidal Marshes

• Marsh evolution depends on supplies of inorganic
  sediment. How have the supplies changed?

Marsh evolution depends on depositional
environments. How has hydrology changed?
Marsh ecology depends on salinity regimes. How
has salinity changed?
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Thinking about Elkhorn Slough Tidal Marshes

• Marsh evolution depends on supplies of inorganic
  sediment. How have the supplies changed?

Marsh evolution depends on depositional
environments. How has hydrology changed?
Marsh ecology depends on salinity regimes. How
has salinity changed?
Can changes be managed to improve conditions?
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Think Big