Competitive Analysis Let The Market Speak

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Competitive AnalysisLet The Market Speak

• Presented by
• Robert M. Lefenfeld
• Principal, Real Property Research Group, Inc.

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(No Transcript)
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Define Market Area

• Be realistic.
• Not too expansive.
• Senior will have broader geographic draw.
• Be suspicious of radii and county markets.

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Demographic Analysis

• Family Communities
• Past and Current Household Growth.
• Housing Quality make up for lack of HH Growth.
• Senior Communities.
• Senior HH 62, 70.
• Income Qualified Households.

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Maryland Population Pyramid 2000-2010
2010
2000
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning
from Census 2000
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Change in Households by Age of Household Head for
Maryland, 2000 - 2010
Source The Maryland Department of Planning,
Planning Data Services
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Maryland Population Pyramid 2010-2020
Bob Lefenfeld
2020
2010
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning
from Census 2000
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Change in Households by Age of Household Head for
Maryland, 2010 - 2020
Source The Maryland Department of Planning,
Planning Data Services
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Maryland Population Pyramid 2020-2030
2030
2020
Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning
from Census 2000
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Change in Households by Age of Household Head for
Maryland, 2020 - 2030
Source The Maryland Department of Planning,
Planning Data Services
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Rental Analysis

• Look at Entire Market.
• Weakness in other segments can effect affordable
  housing.
• What products are offering concessions.
• Will concessions burn off in short term?

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• Net Price Position in Market

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Occupancy Levels/ Concessions

• Reason for concessions.
• Market overbuilt overall.
• Too much product at one position.
• Adjustment for overreaching in rents.

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IV. Pipeline

• Need to understand how market will evolve.

• Check with Planning Department.
• Check with Housing Finance Agency.
• Talk with developers to quantify delivery and
  price position.

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V. Family Communities

• Rarely oversupply for 50 units.
• Issue is getting family project approved by
  community.
• Bond deals offering significant amenity package.
• Mixed Income are doable if products compatible.

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VI. Senior Communities

• Evolution of Senior Product
• Efficiencies to one bedroom to two bedroom.
• One bedroom units in urban markets where
  affordability overriding criteria.
• Seniors generally command premium over family
  units.

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Senior Communities

• In small markets, careful about introduction of
  2nd or 3rd senior deal.
• In dense urban markets, demand is deeper than
  seen in affordability.
• More developed product in Northeast than
  Southeast.

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VII. Preservation / Infill Projects

• Exciting opportunity to reinvest in existing
  neighborhoods.
• Is proposed scope of work enough to extend life
  of project?
• Are underwritten rents realistic without housing
  subsidy?
• HOPE VI can work to turn an area.

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VIII. Current Markets

• Mid Atlantic continues to be strong.
• Southeast cities somewhat overbuilt.
• Downtown investment strong.
• Second tier markets ignored in 1990s getting
  attention.

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