Kazakhstan

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KazakhstansSecond National Communication to the
Conference of Parties of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change

• REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN
• Ministry of Environment Protection
• Valentina Kryukova
• Bonn, 2009

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Key challenges

• Uncertainty of Kazakhstans status in UNFCCC
• Capacity building of experts dealing with
  modeling and scenario simulation for
  vulnerability assessment, adaptation and
  mitigation.
• Barriers to get relevant data
• Lack of research on climate change impact to
  water resources
• Achieve balance between the energy sector and the
  environment protection

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The linear coefficient of temperature trend of
the surface air on the average annual (a), winter
(b), and summer (c) for the period of 1936 2005
?

• The average annual temperature increased
• by 0.31 ?C /10 years
• by 0.50 ?C/10  years in winter
• by 0.21 ?C/10  years in summer.

?
?
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The linear coefficient of the precipitation in
annual, winter (a) and summer (b) periods
(mms/10 years) for the periods 1936 2005.
There was no definite trend in the annual and
seasonal rainfall on the territory of Kazakhstan
a)
c)
b)
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Climate change status main conclusions

• Ubiquitous increase of seasonal and annual
  temperature
• Increase of climate aridity in deserts and
  semi-deserts areas of Kazakhstan, as well as in
  adjacent areas.
• Increase of total rainfall in the western and
  northern parts of Kazakhstan and in the central
  zone. The same trend was seen in the mountainous
  parts of the South and South-East of the country.
  However this had less impact on raising air
  temperatures.
• Degradation of glaciers has been recorded by 0.8
  in South-East mountains and 1 in glacier
  storage.

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Change of annual temperature and precipitation in
Kazakhstan with change of GHG concentration
according to different scenarios
temperature
average P-50 strict ?1F1
mild B1 1,4 ?? up to 2030 1,2?1,9 º? (1,3 )
1,5?2,2 º? (1,7 ) 2,7 ?? to 2050
2,5?4,0 º? (3,0 ) 1,6?2,6 º? (2,0 ) 4,6 ??
to 2085 5,7 to 8,0 º? (6,2) 3,1?3,4 º?
(3,3)
precipitations
average P-50 strict ?1F1 2 to 2030, -
2 up to 8  (2,2 ) by 4 to 2050 - 4 to plus
15  (3,7 ) by 5 to 2085 8 to 28 (6,5 )
mild B1 to 2030 0-8  (3,0 ), to 2050 minus
3 to plus 9  (1,7 ) to 2085 minus 2 to plus 13
(4,1 )
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The complex impact of the surface air temperature
and precipitation intensity can lead to shifting
northward the borders of humidification zones.
1971-2000
Increase in rainfall, even by 2025, will not
have a favorable impact on the ecosystems,
agriculture and water resources..
2071-2100, ?1F1
The complex influence of the temperature and the
amount of the falls may lead to the shift of wet
zonal borders to the North (to 250-300 km by
2085).
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Expected climate change main conclusions

• Increase of seasonal and annual temperatures
• Increase of precipitation in the winter period
• Increase of the annual amount of precipitations.
• Decrease of rainfalls in the summer period since
  2050.
• On the major territory of Kazakhstan increase of
  precipitations does not compensate increase of
  air temperature.
• All scenarios of GHG concentration change tend to
  increase of aridity.

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The potential impact of the climate change

• Water Resources
• will increase on the average from 1 4 to 14 -
  22 in mountain areas
• will decrease by 7-10 in the plain areas
• The degradation of the mountains glaciations and
  its impact on the resources of the river flow in
  the basin of the Lake Balkhash

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Potential impact of climate change

• Agriculture
• Grain production
• will be unfavorable for growing spring wheat in
  the northern part of Kazakhstan
• Yield productivity I will decrease
  in the central, eastern parts by 2560 , in the
  northern part by 70 90 versus the mean
  perennial values
• Pastures
• Change in structure, composition and decrease in
  biodiversity.
• Decrease in soil biomass by 30-60 .
• Cattle breeding

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Needs for adaptation measures

• To improve standards and legislation, to develop
  a strategy for reducing GHG emissions and
  increasing sinks.
• To streamline climate change issues into Sectoral
  Programs and Strategies.
• To improve the network of systematic surveys, a
  forecasting system, modeling and early emergency
  information.
• To enhance research on climate change impact and
  its consequences to water resources, populations
  health and the economy.
• To increase awareness on climate change issues
  and measures needed for decision makers, business
  and public.

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Total GHG emissions in Kazakhstan, Tg
CO2-equivalent
GHG Sources/sinks 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2005
Energy 280 261 128 138 185 197
Fuel combustion 246 236 113 119 164 176
Fugitive emissions 34 25 15 19 21 23
Industrial processes 15 7 7 11 14 15
Agriculture 46 34 16 17 21 23
LULUCF -7 -5 -5 -7 -6 -6
Waste 5 5 5 6 7 8
Total emissions 345 308 156 172 228 243
Net emissions 338 303 151 165 221 237
A primary source of GHG emissions is energy (fuel
combustion) amounting for 72 in 2005. The
second contributor is agriculture, the proportion
of which has reduced from 15 in 1990 to 9 in
2005. In 2005 fugitive emissions contributed
around 9 of Kazakhstans total emissions.
Industrial processes contributed 6 and the
proportion of waste was 3. Absorption by LULUCF
amounted 2.5 .
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Direct GHG emissions without sinks, Gg ? ??2-eqv
In 2005, Kazakhstans CO2 emissions, without
carbon absorption by forests, were 195.0 Tg
this is almost 80 of the national total. The
share of methane was around 16, and nitrogen
oxide was about 5. The main sources of methane
were fugitive emissions and agriculture, and 95
of N2O emissions were by agriculture
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GHG emissions from Energy fuel combustion by
main sources, Gg CO2-eqv.
Energy
Industry
Transport
Other sectors
Other
Energy activity is the main source of
anthropogenic GHG emissions in Kazakhstan. The
greatest contribution to the emissions from
energy category (88) was made by the fossil fuel
combustion that amounted to 175.7 Tg
CO2-equivalent of emissions.
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Dynamics of fugitive CH4 and CO2 emissions, Gg of
CO2-equivalent.
The category of fugitive emissions is the largest
source of ??4 emission. It is also the second
largest contributor to the total national GHG
emissions at 8.7  in 2005.
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??4 and N2O emissions from agriculture in
Kazakhstan, Gg ??2-eqv.
The agriculture sector is the third largest
contributor to the total national GHG emissions.
In 2005 the proportion of emissions from this
category was 9.4 of total national GHG emissions
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Policy and measures on CC mitigation

• Key documents relating to Kazakhstans
  environmental policy are
• Country Development Strategy to 2030
• The Transition Concept to Sustainable Development
  for 2007 2024
• The Industrial and Innovation Development
  Strategy to 2015
• The Ecological Security Concept for 2004 2015
• Updated Indicative Plan for socio and economic
  development for 2002 2005 with perspective for
  2010 2015
• The Government Program for 2006 - 2010
• The Government Transport Strategy for 2015 (April
  2006)
• The Ecological Code (adopted in January 2007)
• The Desertification Combat Program for 2005
  2015
• The Government Program on energy efficiency and
  renewable resources use for sustainable
  development to 2024.

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Dynamics of total CO2 emissions under the various
scenarios of economy development of RK
The ??2 emission scenarios were built using the
MARKAL model.
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The GHG emissions reduction potential from the
main economy sectors by the strategic development
and plans, effective technologies application,
mln. t ??2
Branches/scenarios Years Years Years Years Years
Energy sector 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
Base scenario 122,8 139,0 153,1 162,5 183,1
The efficient growth of current and new power stations using effective technologies 119,0 126,5 132,8 131,1 138,3
Transport sector
Base scenario 17,1 22,3 29,2 36,5 44,9
Introduction of Euro 2 - 4 standards 17,1 20,7 24,5 27,4 30,1
Oil and gas sector
Base scenario 23,1 25,6 29,4 31 41
Use of the effective, environmentally clean technologies 22,4 24,4 26,7 28,9 36,0
The total GHG emissions in the base scenario 188,8 215,2 242,5 264 306,03
The total GHG emissions using more effective technologies 183 197,6 211,4 216,1 234,1
The total GHG emissions (potential) applying effective technologies and mitigation measures 5,83 17,55 31,57 47,93 71,98
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Recomendations

• That could be useful for other countries in the
  process of preparation of their SNC
• Establishment of national system for GHG
  emissions inventory
• Capacity building on modeling and scenarios
  simulation and interpretation
• Participation in workshops, trainings,
  international meetings
• Awareness raising on climate change issues to
  decision makers and business and public
• Preparation for TNC

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Thank you for your attention!